Spread Options: Dr. Saturday's week 4 picks against the spread
A winning week!
After two disastrous weeks to start the year, we got on the positive side of the ledger with a 6-4 week three to bring our season record to a wonderful 8-22. All we have to do is go 9-1 the next two weeks to get over .500 through week 6. OK, yeah, that's impossible. Continue to fade these picks if you'd like, though we're set to make it two positive weeks in a row.
Iowa at Pitt (-7), Noon ET: The confidence in Pitt is not what it once was after the ugly win over Florida International. But doesn't the win over Boston College look better too? There's always the chance the Panthers could Pitt and with Paul Chryst's commitment to the running game, this won't be the prettiest of football games. But I have much more confidence in Pitt than I do in Iowa at this point.
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (-7.5), Noon ET: If you listened to the podcast this week you heard us try to figure out who the worse 3-0 team in the ACC was. Graham picked Georgia Tech while I picked North Carolina State. But there was no right answer. Georgia Tech has snuck by Georgia Southerm and beaten Tulane and Wofford. Hardly a tough schedule. Virginia Tech bounces back from its loss to East Carolina handily.
Maryland (+2.5) at Syracuse 12:30 p.m. ET: Maryland QB C.J. Brown was a running fool against the West Virginia defense in week three, rushing for 161 yards. In week one, Syracuse's blitz-heavy defense had trouble with Villanova's John Robertson, who had 15 yards on an albeit heavy workload of 34 carries. This is going to be close, which is why I'm going to take the points.
Florida at Alabama (-14), 3:30 p.m. ET: Maybe there's going to be some Muschamp magic to keep this game close, but I don't see it. Alabama's offense has been improving every week and Blake Sims looks like he's going to be the guy. Given what Kentucky's Patrick Towles did against Florida, Sims' chances for excellence look pretty good.
Texas A&M (-34) at SMU, 3:30 p.m. ET: Shying away from lines like this or always taking the points is a good bet but this is too tempting. Sure, SMU has a new coach and had an off week, but it's also down a starting QB after Neal Burcham's elbow injury. SMU lost to North Texas 43-6 and it's hard to see this game being closer than that one. A&M may let off the gas early, but this is also a chance to show off for Dallas-area recruits.
Utah (+3.5) at Michigan, 3:30 p.m. ET: This is the upset special of the week, though it's hard to get a grasp on Utah right now. The 57-29 win over Fresno State looks impressive, but everyone has dominated the Bulldogs this year. But I'm still reeling from Michigan's humiliation at Notre Dame. Take the points, or if you're fading me, give them.
Indiana at Missouri (-13), 4 p.m. ET: The Maty Mauksperience is going well for Missouri so far. While he has some moments of head-scratching throws, he's made plays with his feet and has thrown 12 TDs on just 48 completions. With Indiana's porous defense, I'll take Missouri to cover in a game that will also top the 70.5 over/under and probably last four hours.
Mississippi State at LSU (-9), 7 p.m. ET: Here's Mississippi State's first litmus test as a sleeper candidate in the SEC West. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, there are five teams in the top 10 ahead of them. LSU against an unranked opponent at night in Death Valley seems like too easy of a choice. Which means I'll probably miss this and Dak Prescott will have a fantastic game.
Oklahoma at West Virginia (OVER 65), 7:30 p.m. ET: This one was teased on the podcast too. This matchup has the makings of a shootout that Oklahoma should win. It'll be fun to see how much OU coach Bob Stoops will want to push the tempo with his offense after West Virginia's 100+ plays against Maryland. Will we see two teams run at warp speed or will Oklahoma slow it down some?
Clemson (+15) at Florida State, 8 p.m. ET: Not buying into the idea of an upset just yet, but with Sean Maguire at QB I think we'll see a very conservative gameplan from Florida State in the first half. And while Florida State will take control with Jameis Winston in the second half, it won't be nearly the blowout it was last year.
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Nick Bromberg is the assistant editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
