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Dr. Saturday

Bowl Projections: Post-Week 10 Edition

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As the calendar turns to November, we have enough information to start making some semi-educated guesses at what the bowl season is going to look like. For the sake of this exercise we’re going to assume all the favorites are winning, which is definitely not going to happen but is the simplest way to approach this. After working through the BCS selection process, we’ll go over the rest of the bowls.

BCS Title Game (January 6): Alabama vs. Oregon

If both teams win out, they’re going to be top two because the strength of Oregon’s closing schedule (Stanford, Oregon State and then likely UCLA or Arizona State in the title game) will allow it to pull past from Florida State (a struggling Florida team and then a not great opponent in the ACC title game). If one of these two lose, the Noles move on up.

[Watch: College football Week 11 upset alert]

Keep the faith, Tallahassee, Columbus and Waco: Going into the second weekend of November last season there were four undefeated teams. Eight days later, there was only one.

Rose Bowl (January 1): Ohio State vs. Stanford

Ohio State is locked in as Big Ten champions, and the Rose takes Stanford as an at-large replace Oregon. Should the Cardinal lose three or more games, this is a potential landing spot for a few other interesting teams, including Clemson, Notre Dame or a second Big 12 team.

Orange Bowl (January 3): Florida State vs. Central Florida

Florida State heads here as the ACC champion, and then things immediately get interesting. After the Sugar takes a replacement for Alabama and the Rose gets to replace Oregon, the Orange gets the first shot at an at-large team. They could go with a second Big Ten team (Wisconsin or Michigan State, potentially), a second Big Twelve team, American conference runner-up Louisville or American Conference champion Central Florida. UCF has the second-largest enrollment in the country, meaning they should be able to sell tickets for a major bowl a few hours away. I’m saying the Orange goes with the Knights, but if you think they’d prefer the Badgers or Spartans, I wouldn’t argue with you.

Sugar Bowl (January 2): Auburn vs. Clemson

To replace Alabama, the Sugar can go with any number of teams, but it’s a safe bet to say they’ll go SEC. But which team? A&M, Missouri, South Carolina and LSU could all end up here, but I’m going with Auburn simply because I think their closing schedule (at Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama) is the most conducive to finishing the season with only two losses. They get paired against Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins, whose Tigers will be 10-2 at worst.

Fiesta Bowl (January 1): Baylor vs. Fresno State

Baylor goes here automatically as Big 12 champion, but that title could easily go to Texas, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State as that conference is far from settled. Fresno State earns an automatic bid by being a non-BCS conference champ who finishes ahead of a BCS champion (Central Florida, in this case) and in the Top 16, so the Fiesta is obligated to select them here. If Fresno State loses and Northern Illinois wins out, you will likely see the Huskies here.

And here are the rest of the bowls. A * denotes a team filling in for another conference that couldn’t fulfill all of its bowl obligations:
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, NM – December 21
Pac-12 No. 7 vs. MW No. 4 or 5

Arizona vs. Colorado State

Las Vegas Bowl
Las Vegas, NV - December 21
MW No. 1 vs. Pac-12 No. 5

Boise State vs. USC

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Boise, ID – December 21
MAC No. 3 vs. MW No. 6

Buffalo vs. Wyoming

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans, LA – December 21
C-USA No. 6 vs. Sun Belt No. 1

Tulane vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

[Watch: College football Week 11 picks to win]

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl St Petersburg
St Petersburg, FL – December 23
C-USA No. 4 vs. AAC No. 6

Rice vs. Toledo*

Sheraton Hawai`i Bowl
Honolulu, HI – December 24
C-USA No. 2 vs. MW No. 5

East Carolina vs. San Diego State

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Detroit, MI – December 26
MAC No. 1 vs. Big Ten No. 8

Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana-Monroe*

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, CA – December 26
Army vs. MW No. 2

Notre Dame* vs. Utah State

Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman
Annapolis, MD – December 27
C-USA No. 5 vs. ACC No. 8

Marshall vs. Maryland

Texas Bowl
Houston, TX – December 27
Big Ten No. 6 vs. Big 12 No. 6

Michigan vs. Kansas State

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
San Francisco, CA – December 27
BYU vs. Pac-12 No. 6

BYU vs. Oregon State

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Bronx, NY – December 28
AAC No. 4 vs. Big 12 No. 7

Rutgers vs. West Virginia

Belk Bowl
Charlotte, NC – December 28
AAC No. 3 vs. ACC No. 5

Houston vs. Duke

Russell Athletic Bowl
Orlando, FL – December 28
ACC No. 3 vs. AAC No. 2

Georgia Tech vs. Louisville

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
Tempe, AZ – December 28
Big Ten No. 4 of 5 vs. Big 12 No. 4

Minnesota vs. Oklahoma State

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Ft Worth, TX – December 30
MWC No. 3 vs. C-USA No.3/Navy

San Jose State vs. Navy

Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN – December 30
SEC No. 7 vs. ACC No. 6

Georgia vs. North Carolina

Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX – December 30
Pac-12 No. 2 vs. Big 12 No. 3


Arizona State vs. Oklahoma

Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA – December 30
Big 12 No. 5 vs. Pac-12 No. 3

Texas Tech vs. UCLA

AdvoCare V100 Bowl
Shreveport, LA – December 31
ACC No. 7 vs. SEC No. 10

Boston College vs. Vanderbilt

Hyundai Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX – December 31st
ACC No. 4 vs. Pac-12 No. 4

Virginia Tech vs. Washington

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN – December 31
C-USA No. 1 or American vs. SEC No. 8 or 9

North Texas vs. Tennessee

Chick-fil-A Bowl
Atlanta, GA – December 31
ACC No. 2 vs. SEC No. 5

Miami (FL) vs. South Carolina

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL – January 1
Big Ten No. 4 or 5 vs. SEC No. 6

Nebraska vs. Ole Miss

Heart of Dallas Bowl
Dallas, TX – January 1
Big Ten No. 7 vs C-USA

Iowa vs. Middle Tennessee

Capital One Bowl
Orlando, FL – January 1
Big Ten No. 2 vs. SEC No. 2

Wisconsin vs. LSU

Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL – January 1
Big Ten No. 3 vs. SEC No. 3

Michigan State vs. Missouri

AT&T Cotton Bowl
Arlington, TX – January 3
Big 12 No. 2 vs. SEC No. 3 or 4

Texas vs. Texas A&M

BBVA Compass Bowl
Birmingham, Ala – January 4
SEC No. 8 or 9 vs. American No. 5

Florida vs. Cincinnati

GoDaddy Bowl
Mobile, AL – January 5
Sun Belt No. 2 vs. MAC No. 2

Western Kentucky vs. Ball State

~

Teams currently not bowl eligible we’re projecting to get six wins: Boston College, Bowling Green, Colorado State, Florida (only if they beat Vanderbilt this weekend), Georgia, Iowa, Kansas State, Louisiana-Monroe, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Navy, North Carolina, Ole Miss, Rutgers, San Diego State, San Jose State, Tennessee, Utah State, West Virginia, Washington, Wyoming, Vanderbilt

Notables teams currently not eligible we’re projecting to fall short of six wins: Indiana, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, TCU, Utah, Washington State

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