Bubble breakdown: LSU's latest bad loss damages two teams
With less than two weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, the NCAA tournament bubble is beginning to take shape. Bubble Breakdown is the Dagger's daily look at the results that impact who's in and who's out.
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LSU's latest loss to a lesser-talented team damaged more than its chances of securing an at-large bid.
By falling 78-63 at home against rebuilding Tennessee on Wednesday night, the Tigers also may have torpedoed the hopes of an SEC rival.
The only RPI top 75 victories Texas A&M (20-9, 11-6) has this season came via a pair of victories over LSU during SEC play. That sweep could have been meaningful for the Aggies except the underachieving Tigers have fallen back to the bubble with bad league losses against Missouri, Auburn, Mississippi State and now Tennessee.
Many mock brackets still project Texas A&M to make the field as a No. 10 or 11 seed, but that seems very generous considering the Aggies' lack of quality wins. The best team they've beaten besides LSU is likely a Florida team with a 15-15 record, though it admittedly does count for something that they also haven't lost to any sub-100 RPI opponents.
Texas A&M's final SEC game is against Alabama, which won't help the Aggies much if they win but would be crushing if they lose. Regardless, Texas A&M would greatly benefit from a run in the SEC tournament that included a win or two against a quality opponent.
LSU's situation is slightly less dire in spite of its long list of bad losses. The Tigers (21-9, 10-7) may not have met expectation for a team with two future pro forwards and a talented backcourt, but they have nine RPI top 100 victories including a huge non-league win at West Virginia and a sweep of NCAA tournament-bound Ole Miss.
The lone remaining game for LSU is a visit to Arkansas. Win that, and the Tigers are surely safe. Lose, and they probably will need a win or two in the SEC tournament to head into Selection Sunday without any anxiety.
BUBBLE TEAMS WHOSE STOCK ROSE WEDNESDAY
Oregon (23-8, 13-5 Pac-12): What Oregon has accomplished after a disastrous offseason is unfathomable in a lot of ways. The Ducks closed the regular season by winning at rival Oregon State to improve to 13-5 in the Pac-12 and to all but cement an NCAA tournament bid. Seven of Oregon's nine leading scorers from last season are no longer with the team, so it took the Ducks a while to jell this season. They only managed one notable non-league win — a victory over fellow bubble team Illinois — but they've developed rapidly over the course of Pac-12 play, winning nine of their final 10 games including a season-changing victory over Utah a couple weeks ago. Oregon will be the third seed in the Pac-12 tournament and will likely draw Oregon State or Arizona State in the quarterfinals. The Ducks should be fine regardless but even one Pac-12 tournament win will leave no doubt.
Miami (19-11, 9-8 ACC): In what was essentially an elimination game between two bubble teams, Miami edged Pittsburgh 67-63 in an arena where the Panthers seldom lose despite the absence of starting point guard Angel Rodriguez. Sheldon McClellan scored 20 points and Davon Reed added 19 to spark the Hurricanes to a badly needed top 100 RPI win. Miami still only has seven of those all season — a monumental win at Duke, two solid wins over Illinois and NC State and victories against Pitt, Clemson, Florida and Syracuse. Bad losses against Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and Eastern Kentucky also drag down the Hurricanes. The last remaining regular season game for Miami is a must-win against struggling Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes need that win and likely at least one more in the ACC tournament.
UCLA (19-12, 11-7 Pac-12): UCLA got the three home wins it absolutely had to have, following up last week's sweep against the Washington schools by defeating rival USC on Wednesday night, 85-74. That ensured the Bruins the No. 4 seed in next week's Pac-12 tournament and sets up a potentially massive quarterfinal between UCLA and likely No. 5 seed Stanford. A strong non-conference strength of schedule, a huge home win against Utah and a 3-1 record against fellow Pac-12 bubble teams Stanford and Oregon put UCLA in good position despite its 12 losses, but it's hard to see the Bruins making the NCAA tournament without at least winning one game in Las Vegas. A quarterfinal victory seems essential. A trip to the title game, and UCLA would be a near-lock.
Cincinnati (21-9, 12-5 AAC): Cincinnati entered Wednesday's game at Tulsa behind the Golden Hurricane in the American Athletic Conference standings but ahead of them in the NCAA tournament pecking order. The Bearcats flew home Wednesday night in exactly the same position. A 56-47 road win at Tulsa gives Cincinnati seven top 100 victories including a sweep of SMU and non-league victories against San Diego State and NC State. Bad losses against Tulane and East Carolina drag the Bearcats down, but this still seems like an NCAA tournament-caliber team and profile. Cincinnati can leave no doubt if it protects its home floor on Saturday against a Memphis team without Austin Nichols.
Other bubble winners: Illinois (defeated Nebraska 69-57), Boise State (defeated San Jose State 68-51), Colorado State (defeated Nevada 78-62), Oklahoma State (defeated TCU 82-70).
BUBBLE TEAMS WHOSE STOCK FELL WEDNESDAY
Pittsburgh (19-12, 8-9 ACC): Why is Pittsburgh likely to miss the NCAA tournament despite victories over North Carolina and Notre Dame in conference play? Two reasons. 1. Jamie Dixon's weak non-conference schedule afforded the Panthers little margin for error in ACC play. 2. They squandered what little they had with brutal losses against Virginia Tech, Wake Forest and Clemson. Pittsburgh had one final chance to rescue itself at home against fellow bubble team Miami, but the Panthers lost 67-63 on Wednesday night despite 22 points from Michael Young. Now the road to the NCAA tournament is an uphill climb. Pittsburgh probably needs to beat Florida State on Saturday, then make a deep ACC tournament run.
Tulsa (21-8, 14-3 AAC): Even though Tulsa entered Wednesday in sole possession of first place in the American Athletic Conference, its profile doesn't exactly scream NCAA tournament team. Of its five RPI top 100 wins, two are against fellow bubble team Temple, two are against mediocre Memphis and one came at home against underachieving UConn. The Golden Hurricane also have a horrendous loss to Oral Roberts and an even worse one against a Division II opponent. Tulsa blew a chance to help itself at home on Wednesday when it lost to Cincinnati 56-47. That might have quashed the Golden Hurricane's at-large hopes, though they can make things interesting by winning at SMU on Sunday, claiming the outright league title and doing some damage in the conference tournament.
Purdue (19-11, 11-6 Big Ten): Though Purdue was competitive at Ohio State and Michigan State its past two games, the Boilermakers didn't win either. They missed a chance to all but secure an NCAA bid on Wednesday night with a 72-66 loss to the Spartans that clinched Michigan State's spot in the field of 68. A sweep of Indiana and wins over Ohio State and Iowa helped Purdue rally from a thoroughly disappointing non-conference performance, but the Boilermakers aren't safe yet. They need one more win minimum, whether that's at home against Illinois this weekend or in the Big Ten tournament. And if they want to be truly sure they're safe, two more wins wouldn't be a bad idea.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
