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Track don't lie: Sizing up Homestead for the Big 3

Jay Busbee
From The Marbles

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Here we are at the final race of the season, and boy, you couldn't pick a better track on which to end -- at least from a competitive perspective. Don't believe me? Take a look at the numbers here of each of our Big 3:

Denny Hamlin: Five starts, average start 34.0, average finish 10.6. Hamlin won here last year and also has two third-place finishes to his credit. Of a concern: his poor qualifying. It's essential for each of the Big 3 to run up front this race to minimize any chance of getting caught up in someone's mistake.

Jimmie Johnson: Nine starts, average start 19.3, average finish 12.7. Johnson hasn't run particularly well at Homestead -- it's one of the few tracks he hasn't won at -- but then, he hasn't really needed to, having generally clinched the Cup by this point. Of note: he's qualified for the pole two of the last three races.

Kevin Harvick: Nine starts, average start 11.6, average finish 8.4. Perhaps there's something to this whole "disrespected" thing after all. The fact that Harvick has the best average finish of any of the Big 3 is somewhat surprising. He has no wins at Homestead, but he's posted 5 top 10s, including a second and third in his last two races.

Bottom line: all three drivers run exceptionally well here. It's strength on strength. Who's got the edge? I'm picking Harvick to win the race and Johnson to take the Cup. (Sorry, Vader haters.) But am I confident enough to bet anything other than a handshake on that? Nope.

So, your turn. Make your pick below, and back it up with whatever passes for evidence on the Internet.

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