What's buzzing:

From the Marbles

Here’s the math: How the three NASCAR championships can be won at Homestead

Nick Bromberg
From The Marbles

View photo

.

Ricky Stenhouse and Brad Keselowski each have a 20 point lead with one race to go. (Getty)

Want to know how all three points leaders in NASCAR's top three series have to fare to guarantee themselves a title at Homestead this weekend? You've come to the right spot.

In the Sprint Cup Series, leader Brad Keselowski has a 20-point advantage over Jimmie Johnson, which means that even if Johnson wins, a finish of 15th for Keselowski guarantees him the title. If Keselowski leads a lap, it's a 16th-place finish, and if he leads the most laps, it's a 17th-place finish.

If Johnson was to finish second (and didn't lead a lap), Keselowski would need to finish in 23rd place to win the championship, provided he doesn't lead a lap either, as a tie in the points standings would go to Johnson. Since each driver currently has five wins, the tiebreaker goes to second-place finishes, where Johnson has five to Keselowski's three.

Just like the Cup Series, the Nationwide Series points standings separated the top two from each other at Phoenix. That means Ricky Stenhouse's clinch scenario is very similar to Keselowski's, as he holds a 20-point lead over Elliott Sadler. For Stenhouse, 16th with no laps led gets him the title, while 17th with a lap led and 18th with the most laps led are also the thresholds. (Stenhouse has six wins to Sadler's four.)

The Camping World Truck Series has the closest championship battle of the three series and it also has more than two drivers mathematically alive for the title.

James Buescher has an 11-point lead over Timothy Peters and a 12-point lead over Ty Dillon. Joey Coulter is 29 points back and Parker Kligerman is 37 behind, but they're going to need a lot of help (i.e., a very early incident involving Buescher plus other craziness) to grab the title.

Buescher has the edge on both Peters and Dillon in the wins column four to two, so he can clinch with an eighth-place finish and no laps led, or a ninth with a lap led and 10th with the most laps led. If he's ahead of Peters on the track and Dillon is in the lead, he can afford to slide back a position. If Buescher's behind both drivers and below those benchmarks? Well, it becomes an almost-heads up between Peters (two wins) and Dillon (one win).

Got all that? Now you're ready for the final NASCAR weekend of the year. Is it Friday yet?

View Comments (31)