Happy Hour: Our pick to win the Chase and points about the new format

Throughout the week you can send us your best questions, jokes, rants and just plain miscellaneous thoughts to happyhourmailbag@yahoo.com or @NickBromberg.We'll post them here, have a good time and everyone's happy.

Sit back, relax and breathe in the air of the new Chase. It doesn't smell much different than the old Chase, eh? Sure, the format's changed, but we're not going to have a winner who wouldn't have qualified for the Chase under the old format. (Sorry Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, A.J. Allmendinger and Aric Almirola).

I know I've harped on sample size and randomness in the past and how small sample sizes aren't the fairest way of determining a champion. And with the final winner-take-all race, who knows what's going to happen between four drivers? And that's kind of the point. It's set up for madness. (Click here for the official rules on the new format in case you're not up to speed.)

But the four drivers in that position are going to be four drivers who have been not only four of the best drivers in the first nine races of the Chase, but four of the best drivers of the season. Sure, it's possible that we could see someone get hot like Tony Stewart did in 2011, but the odds are stacked against it.

Let's look at where Chase-era champions would have been in the old points format after Richmond:

2004: Kurt Busch, 7th
2005: Tony Stewart, 1st
2006: Jimmie Johnson, 2nd
2007: Jimmie Johnson, 4th
2008: Jimmie Johnson 3rd
2009: Jimmie Johnson 3rd
2010: Jimmie Johnson, 5th (tie)
2011: Tony Stewart, 9th
2012: Brad Keselowski, 5th
2013: Jimmie Johnson, 2nd

The top seven in points this year? Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick. Does anyone legitimately think (outside of being a fan of one of the other nine Chase drivers) that we're going to see a champion from outside this group? It's possible, but the chances are probably smaller than the Kansas City Chiefs' are of winning the Super Bowl.

Time for your questions.

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I'm excited for new chase format, but would like to see a little change in the how the point system works.  I would like it more if once you are eliminated from the chase you would fall back into whatever points you have earned for the entire season.  I also think the points for these chase races could be easy kept in their own column restarting at zero – instead of adding 1000 each round or whatever they are doing – after every elimination race for the remaining drivers still alive for the chase. At the end of the season the standings would rank the drivers from 2nd on back by the points total for the entire year and the Champion is the only one that would be different.  This would make the people that liked the old system happy that points would be somewhat important...  What do you think? - Josh

While I'm open to changing my position in the future, I'm not sure I'm a fan of the setup that's currently in place. Right now, drivers who are eliminated in the first or second rounds of the Chase are eligible to finish in fifth. Meaning that a driver who could be in 16th place after the third race could finish fifth, ahead of drivers who were alive in the Chase for nine rounds. (Again, not likely at all, but possible.)

If you're going to go for a playoff format like NASCAR has done, it needs to be set up like a playoff format. NFL teams who lose in the divisional rounds of the playoffs can't lay claim to third place in the league. When you're eliminated – like what NASCAR has instituted this year in this new system – you're eliminated.

Plus, let's think about it this way. Allowing drivers to run for fifth place after they've been eliminated is quite obvious admission that points do in fact matter after we've been told that winning is now everything.

If the Chase Nation concept was something to catch on, it'd be more than a commercial titled "Hype"and banners for each of the 16 drivers with inconsistent namie framework. And a hashtag on Twitter that NASCAR really, really wants to catch on. Just because Junior Nation exists doesn't mean that there are 15 other driver nations. Except for our Power Rankings, of course.

JB's question leads perfectly into this.

If this Chase Grid (TM) concept was really going to take off and get new NASCAR fans to flock to the sport for its incredibly-cool-knockout-style-game-seven-inducing format, the sport would have done all it could to form partnerships with sports media entities to have Chase Grid games on their websites.

However, the Chase Grid game is at NASCAR.com exclusively. The reason fantasy football and NCAA Tournament pools have taken off is because of the ubiquity of the places to play. There's no exclusivity and you can't avoid browsing the internet without seeing a link to sign up for either.

How many people do you think would play a Chase Grid game if they saw an ad for it while checking their fantasy football team here at Yahoo? It'd be a perfect opportunity to draw people in to the Chase based off of the new format. Instead, the games are only available at the sanctioning body's website, a website that many non-NASCAR fans simply don't visit. For a format designed to draw in the casual fan against the fall avalanche of the NFL, it's an incredibly large missed opportunity.

P.S. If your office is doing an office NASCAR pool, please let us know. We can't imagine too many emails floating around corporate servers on Friday telling co-workers that it's their last chance to get into a Chase pool.

To answer the second question, Talladega could be wild or it could be tame. Phoenix and Dover have had a propensity for long green flag runs. I'll lean to more like Richmond with the caveat we could have a surprise or two.

A Junior win? That'd sure placate a lot of folks.

It's hard to tell what a majority of NASCAR fans actually is. NASCAR says there was significant fan feedback when making the move to this format while the complaints about the Chase can outnumber the support on social media channels extensively.

Personally, I think a driver who has won a race or two in the Chase and has been a threat all season long must win the championship for the format to avoid cries of flukiness.

I'm sticking with Jimmie Johnson. And to stick with Power Rankings, let's go with Junior, Gordon and Keselowski to round out the final four.

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Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!

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