Fabricio Werdum, Kelvin Gastelum headline picks to win on UFC 180 main card
MEXICO CITY -- The UFC will make its first appearance in Mexico tonight when a bout for the interim heavyweight title between Fabricio Werdum and Mark Hunt headlines an 11-bout card at UFC 180 in the sold-out Mexico City Arena.
I'm on the scene and will be reporting from cageside at what is expected to be a raucous scene. The fans in Mexico have mobbed the UFC fighters wherever they have gone this week and it's expected to be a great atmosphere in the arena tonight.
Here are my picks for each of the five main card bouts:
Bout: Fabricio Werdum (18-5-1) versus Mark Hunt (10-8-1)
UFC rankings: Werdum No. 1, Hunt No. 4.
Division: Heavyweight (For interim championship)
Odds: Werdum -450
Pick: Werdum by third-round submission
Analysis: This isn't going to be an easy fight for Werdum, because Hunt has a great chin, is a powerful puncher and is very difficult to get down. Werdum is a master at Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and his striking has improved dramatically. Hunt had less than a month to prepare for the bout after champion Cain Velasquez had to pull out because of an injury, and one wonders how that will impact his conditoning while fighting at 7,300 feet altitude. It would not be a shock if Hunt were to win, but Werdum is more well-rounded and more acclimated to the altitude and he's the safe choice here.
Bout: Jake Ellenberger (29-8) versus Kelvin Gastelum (10-0)
UFC rankings: Ellenberger No. 7, Gastelum No. 11
Division: Welterweight
Odds: Gastelum -200
Pick: Gastelum by decision
Analysis: Ellenberger is being written off by many because he's lost his last two and wasn't really effective in either fight. But it should be noted that the losses were to Robbie Lawler, who is fighting for the welterweight title next month at UFC 181, and Rory MacDonald, who will get the winner. Gastelum is a young fighter with great promise and seemingly getting better every time out. It's unlikely, though, he'll be able to neutralize Ellenberger's striking the way that either Lawler or MacDonald did. It's a fight that could go either way, but I expect to see Gastelum mix things up and pull out the tight victory.
Bout: Ricardo Lamas (14-3) versus Dennis Bermudez (15-3)
UFC rankings: Lamas No. 4, Bermudez No. 7.
Division: Featherweight
Odds: Bermudez -180
Pick: Lamas by decision
Analysis: There are few hotter fighters in the UFC than Bermudez, who has won seven in a row and done it in very exciting fashion. There is a strong push by many to see Bermudez get a shot at the featherweight title if he wins. Lamas has won five of six, with only a loss to champion Jose Aldo marring that string. On paper, this is easily the best fight on the card and I see Lamas' edge in high-level experience being the difference.
Bout: Dodger Montano (13-1) versus Chris Heatherly (8-2)
UFC rankings: Both are unranked.
Division: Welterweight
Odds: Montano minus-220
Pick: Montanto third-round TKO
Analysis: Montano, who is from Mexico City and will have the home crowd behind him, is a striker who is making his UFC debut. Heatherly, a wrestler, is 0-1 in the UFC, having gotten submitted by Ben Saunders. Montano, who has a solid all-around game and mixes his strikes well, trains under Greg Jackson in Albuquerque, N.M. He shouldn't be intimidated by the moment and figures to land something big at some point that will end the fight.
Bout: Edgar Garcia (14-3) versus Hector Urbina (24-8)
UFC rankings: Both are unranked.
Division: Welterweight
Odds: Garcia -200
Pick: Garcia TKO2
Analysis: Urbina is an aggressive veteran who is best known for losing to Cathal Pendred in the elimination round on The Ultimate Fighter. Garcia last fought in the UFC in 2009, but he's gone 7-1 since. He's a good striker and look for him to stop Urbina midway through the fight.
