What do we do with DeMarco Murray, 2014's fantasy god?
My 2014 football season might have peaked in May.
The Fantasy Football Index held their magazine Expert Auction in the spring, where I was lucky enough to land DeMarco Murray. I think I was price enforcing, but honestly I can't remember. When we had a post-auction Q&A, I talked about Murray's durability issues, whistled a bit of buyer's remorse.
Of course that's turned into my best team by far, a runaway juggernaut. In the many leagues that followed, I went 0-for-Murray. It's no fun to be sitting this one out.
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Murray stands as one of 2014's "Right Answers" to this point, a guy who's winning leagues for people. Seventy-percent of the Top 500 teams in Yahoo have Murray on their roster. Murray's 122 points in Yahoo are about thirty percent higher than the No. 2 back, Matt Forte.
Murray is the league's runaway leader in rushing attempts (42 ahead of LeSean McCoy) and yards (243 clear of Le'Veon Bell), and he also stands first in yards from scrimmage and rushing touchdowns. And while his gross numbers are indeed, well, gross, he's also giving us consistency every week. That's how you win a fantasy league: big points, no whammys.
Murray's finished fourth, fifth, eighth, third, ninth and fourth in standard RB scoring this year. If you switch to a PPR tilt, he's never been lower than seventh. Working behind what's probably the NFL's best offensive line, he's been fake-football royalty. Murray's worst rushing game still netted 100 yards. His only game without a touchdown nonetheless went for 192 total yards.
In the early days of Yahoo Fantasy Football, a workhorse back wasn't that difficult to find. Murray's per-game scoring average through six weeks (21.7 ppg) is only the seventh-highest push-off in the Yahoo era. You'll remember some of these fantastic stars and starts, grading the initial six weeks of a season: Marshall Faulk 2000 (26.8 ppg), Priest Holmes 2002 (26.6), LaDainian Tomlinson 2006 (26.1), Faulk 2001 (24.3), Holmes 2003 (23.3), Shaun Alexander 2005 (22.7). And Chris Johnson's start in 2009 basically equals Murray this year, at 21.7 ppg.
But Murray's season becomes extra special when you consider two specific pieces of context. First, he's going bonkers in a league that's pass-heavy across the board, and second, he didn't cost an arm and a leg on draft day (many of those historical high-scorers were lottery picks).
If you liked Murray in August, you probably were able to land him, somewhere. His summer ADP was a modest 15.7, the eighth running back off the board. LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Forte, Eddie Lacy, Marshawn Lynch and Montee Ball all went earlier, on average. Peyton Manning, A.J. Green and Brandon Marshall did, too.
So now that we've found Murray, what are we going to do with him? Within Yahoo, owners are becoming understandably hesitant about parting with Murray straight up. One-for-one deals involving Murray dropped 17 percent from Week 4 to Week 5, according to our friends at Automated Insights. Then that number dropped an additional 12 percent from Week 5 to Week 6.
To get a better idea of what route to take, I assembled the Yahoo Fantasy Crew and asked each of them to contribute their state of the Murray address. Their answers are below. And as always, please share your personal answer key in the comments.
Andy Behrens: At some point, the injury-risk argument with Murray becomes inane, doesn't it? He's topped 100 yards in every game this season. He's found the end zone six times in six weeks. His O-line is basically a herd of mastodons. I'm willing to accept A LOT of injury risk when the payoff looks like this. If we were to redraft a 2014 fantasy league today, Murray would be the top player on my board, no question. He's already delivered huge stat lines against the Niners and Seahawks, so there's no sense fretting about any future match-ups. Right now, he's the perfect fantasy back. There's simply no way for fantasy football owners to insulate themselves from injury risk – Calvin is hurt, Green is hurt, Graham is hurt, Charles, Ball, Foster, Ellington, etc. Instead, we need to chase great players in great situations. I'd gladly buy-high on Murray, if you're selling.
Brad Evans: What Murray has achieved through six games is not only historic but truly remarkable. That cannot be disputed. Nearly 70-percent of Yahoo Public League leaders has the rusher on roster. If MVP trophies were handed out in Week 7, he would be the runaway winner.
However, for the savvy owner now is the time to turn a profit on Murray. The man is on pace for a whopping 480 touches, a mind-blowing volume considering the timeshare prevalence in this day and age of the NFL. His pad level has improved, but due to his upright running style, he is a rusher susceptible to lower body injuries. Stretching back to his days in Norman, he’s missed numerous games due to myriad leg and foot setbacks. His 14 games played last year was a pro career best.
His rest-of-season schedule – the 13th-easiest among RBs – is quite favorable, but with his value at its pinnacle, now is the time to entertain trade offers. He’s one awkward ankle bend away from spoiling your championship dreams.
Brandon Funston: I haven't heard much talk about it, but I wonder how much the loss of RT Doug Free (out 3-4 weeks with a sprained foot) will impact Murray's production. A quick check of Murray's directional rushing stats shows that he has averaged 4.7 YPC running between the tackles to the right side (Free's side) compared to 3.4 YPC when running to the left and 3.9 YPC when running up the middle – and he averages over 5.0 YPC running outside the tackles to either side. It seems that Murray has been able to benefit from running (inside) behind one of the best right tackles in the NFL.
I still expect Murray to be a fantasy stud, after all he's leading the league in Missed Tackles and is third in Yards After Contact, so he's making plenty of yards on his own. But expecting 19–plus fantasy points (a total he's reached in all six games so far) with Free out and two of the four toughest fantasy run defenses (WAS, ARI) on the schedule in the next three weeks, is probably wishful thinking. If you are an owner dreaming of acquiring Murray for the fantasy stretch run, maybe a potential short-term dip in Murray's production affords you a discounted buying opportunity.
Dalton Del Don: I unfortunately have zero shares of Murray this season and this coming from someone who still advocated taking running backs early. Not that I actively avoided him, but I can't say I went the extra dollar either. Murray entered the season having missed an average of nearly four games per year over his career, so it’s tempting to recommend selling high. However, he’s always been a talented back, and this Dallas offensive line looks legit. He has 35 broken tackles on the year. No other back has more than 25. It should take quite a haul to deal him. Murray isn't going to continue this pace (he’s projected for 424 rushing attempts), but I see no reason not to treat him as the top fantasy commodity.
Scott Pianowski: I never deem a player untouchable in the fantasy racket. There's some theoretical point where a trade makes sense, no matter the player. If I were fortunate enough to have Murray shares, I'd be open for a Herschel Walker type of mega-deal. Maybe someone in your league will break the bank for one player.
Of course, you better love the offer. If you don't, you pass.
Murray's workload doesn't bother me too much from an accumulation standpoint. I tend to think heavy-use backs get injured simply because they're in the line of fire more often. Should Murray get hurt later this year, I suspect it will be because the wrong hit caught him at the wrong time, not a matter of a heavily-used body breaking down.
I do think the Cowboys should try to handle Murray carefully in games that are already decided; there's no reason to risk him in any blowout situation. But other than that, let's sit back and enjoy the ride. Cowboy Up.
