Week 9 Starts/Sits: Make it Rainey
With six teams on bye, it's obviously hard, as a fantasy owner, to be overly picky about who you plan to roll out in your Week 9 lineup - realistically, we're just looking for a warm body in every spot. But, for some lucky owners, there's still plenty of viable candidates to choose from. And for those that still have more serviceable options than available starting spots, here's the lowdown on some players that look better or worse than usual this week:
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STARTS
QB – Ben Roethlisberger, Pit vs. Bal – After his monstrous 500-yard, 6-TD pass performance in Week 8, Big Ben might seem like an obvious start this week. Yet he's currently only being started in 40 percent of Yahoo leagues, and three of the five Yahoo fantasy pundits have him ranked No. 12 or worse this week against Baltimore. Frankly, I don't get it. Yes, Roethlisberger posted his worst fantasy mark in nearly two years at Baltimore in Week 2. But he's been much better at home (125 QB Rating vs. an 84 mark on the road). And 6-foot-4 rookie Martavis Bryant (3 TDs in first two NFL games) gives the passing game another dangerous option (especially in the red zone), making it tougher for defenses to focus solely on WR Antonio Brown. And the Ravens, who have a allowed a healthy 274.5 passing yards to opposing QBs, will be without top coverman Jimmy Smith. I definitely see top 10 returns from Big Ben this Sunday night.
RB – Bobby Rainey, TB at Cle – It seems like everyone around Tampa Bay's camp wants to talk about rookie running back Charles Sims. But he's looking questionable (ankle) to make his NFL debut on Sunday, and even if he did, it's doubtful he'd see more than a handful of touches his first time out. Doug Martin also looks unlikely to play, also because of an ankle injury. Which means that Rainey is the best bet to see double digit touches out of the Tampa backfield. And if you look at Rainey's short career, in the dozen games that he's received at least nine touches, he's averaged 11.4 fantasy points. Averaging 4.6 YPC and 8.2 yards per catch this season, Rainey should deliver a double digit fantasy return against a Cleveland defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy PPG to the RB position.
RB – Jeremy Hill, Cin vs. Jac – Will Gio Bernard (hip) play, or won't he? That is one of the big injury questions of Week 9. For Hill owners, though, it shouldn't matter. Facing a Jacksonville squad that is 0-4 on the road, with a 17.3-point average margin of defeat, Hill should play a milkman role, helping to burn the clock in the second half of this contest - regardless of whether Bernard plays or not. It certainly stands to reason that, even if Gio does play, his role will be more limited than usual, and he's likely to be on the sideline for good once the game is no longer in question. The setup points to a workload of 15-plus touches for Hill, with the upside of a TD (or two) and 75-100 total yards.
WR – Andrew Hawkins, Cle vs TB – It's hard to believe that, after combining for 12 catches, 200 yards and and a TD over his past two games, Hawkins still isn't owned in half of Yahoo leagues (48%). Hawkins was listed here last week against Oakland, and he delivered a 7/88/1 line. With his availability still so wide open, and his opponent yet another in a line of softies (Tampa Bay allows the second-most passing yards per game), there's no reason to remove him from the "Start" list. And with Browns tight end Jordan Cameron (concussion) not expected to play, Hawkins is likely to see at least 10-12 targets. I'd be shocked if he delivered less than a 6/75 line - I predict he'll do much better than that.
WR – Anquan Boldin, SF vs. StL – I am definitely the ambassador of 'Quan this week, as Boldin hosts a Rams defense that allows 8.0 YPA and a QB Rating of 105.9. In Week 6, at St. Louis, Boldin went for seven catches, 97 yards and a TD. That was par for the course for this matchup, as Boldin has averaged almost 91 yards in 16 career meetings with the Rams - he's scored at least 9.8 fantasy points in 11 of the past 15 contests.
TE - Clay Harbor, Jac at Cin – As alluded to in the Hill write up (above) Jacksonville has seen plenty of garbage time on the road this season. And the forecast this week looks like more of the same as the team opened as a 13-point underdog to the Bengals. With high-volume passing expectations for Jacksonville, it's hard not to like Harbor's potential against a defense that has allowed an average of 90.3 yards per game to the TE position. Harbor has been a disappointment the past two games, but he's averaged 80 yards in two road contests this season, and it's not hard to envision how he could post another solid effort away from home this week.
SITS
QB – Philip Rivers, SDG at Mia – I have Rivers outside my top 12 quarterbacks this week as I'm paying the Miami defense the respect it deserves. The Dolphins haven't allowed a QB to throw for more than 264 yards this season, and six of the past seven QBs to oppose Miami have finished with 221 yards or less. In fact, no team allows fewer yards per pass attempt (6.1) than the Dolphins. When you also factor in that Miami is a long way from home for Rivers (early East Coast starts are always tough for the West Coast teams), I think the situation is ripe for the Chargers passing game to deliver a dud this weekend.
RB – Ben Tate, Cle vs. TB – I think it's fair to question how much the loss of C Alex Mack (broken leg) has hurt the Cleveland run game as Tate has delivered a 2.0 YPC over his past two games against Oakland and Jacksonville. With daylight tough to come by, there's a good chance he'll struggle again against a Tampa Bay defense that, with a 4.1 YPC allowed mark, might not be as easy a matchup as it appears. And you need only look at Tate's 15/26 rushing line against the Raiders to understand that even the most cupcake of matchups is no guarantee for Tate right now. In a week in which six teams are on bye, it's understandable to roll the dice on any RB expected to receive the kind of workload Tate gets, but just understand that he's far from a slam dunk to finish as a RB2 this week.
RB – Andre Williams, NYG vs. Ind – Indianapolis has been just a middle of the pack fantasy run defense, but it has yielded just 85.5 rushing yards per game to the RB position, which ranks as the ninth-lowest mark in the league - all the more impressive when you consider the team has faced Le'Veon Bell, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy and Gio Bernard, among others. Where the Colts really struggle with running backs is in the passing game, as they've allowed the second-most receiving yards to the position. But in the case of the matchup with Williams this week, that's not much of a concern as Williams has just four catches on the season. Williams also hasn't been much of a ground threat, averaging just 60 rushing yards and a 3.5 YPC mark as Rashad Jennings' fill-in over the past four games. You might get lucky with a TD from Williams this week, but considering the yards from scrimmage downside, you might not want to roll those dice.
WR – Pierre Garcon, Was at Min – Garcon burned me as a "Sit" pick in Week 7 against Tennessee, as he took a short pass from Colt McCoy and turned it into a TD of more than 80 yards thanks to some bad defense by the Titans. Without that one fluke play, we'd be talking about a receiver with some seriously ugly numbers in his past five games - he's averaged 32.3 yards per game in those other four contests outside of the Tennessee game. Whether it's a rusty RGIII or McCoy at the helm of the Redskins offense, I'd prefer not to roll with Garcon this week against a Minnesota secondary that has allowed the sixth-fewest receiving yards to the WR position.
WR – Andre Holmes, Oak at Sea – His four TDs in the past four games and the expectations for garbage time production could have owners thinking about Holmes this week at Seattle. But that would be a mistake. The Seahawks have allowed just three scores to opposing wideouts and those three WRs (Randall Cobb, DeSean Jackson, Andre Roberts) were of the small, quick variety of wideout. When you consider that Seattle has held go-to towers of power like Jordy Nelson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant and Kelvin Benjamin all to less than 10 fantasy points and zero touchdowns, you have to feel less excited about the prospects of Holmes' size winning out this week. Seattle has proven more than capable of handling the big boys.
TE - Zach Ertz, Phi at Hou – Since Week 3, Ertz ranks No. 24 among tight ends in fantasy points, scoring just one TD and averaging just 38.2 yards in that five-game span. Also concerning is that he's caught just 61.5 percent of his targets, which is a pretty bad number for a tight end (outside the top 40 among all tight ends that have played at least 25 percent of their team's snaps). When you factor in that Houston hasn't allowed a double digit point fantasy effort by the TE position this season, it becomes especially tough to get excited about Ertz this week.
