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Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders for Week 6.
Yahoo DFS Bargain Bin. What cheaply priced RB/WR/TE will turn the biggest profit in Week 6?
Brad – DUKE JOHNSON ($14). The Broncos are surrendering over 8 receptions per game to the RB position. Given Denver's stringent secondary, I'm sensing numerous designed screens and check-downs to Duke. Bank on roughly 6-8 receptions from the rookie. He's the definition of FLEXY SEXY.
Andy – CHARCANDRICK WEST at a minimum price? OK, sure, I'll take it. It seems clear West will serve as the primary runner in KC's backfield, and we shouldn't assume Andy Reid's team will radically alter its gameplan. West has a path to a top-15 positional finish this week; he'll certainly earn back his $10.
Scott – Everyone is going to say Charky West and that's fine, but I'll give you a different name to add along with his. MARQUESS WILSON ($11) has been a sneaky contributor the last two weeks (12-165-1, on 17 targets), and yet he’s just a buck over the minimum price. Maybe Alshon Jeffery comes back this week, but it doesn’t look great for Eddie Royal (no practice Wednesday). Jay Cutler isn’t as bad as you think. The Lions have one of the weaker pass defenses in the league.
Liz – MIKE WALLACE ($18). Over five weeks of action, Wallace has been the only receiver to snag a score away from the vaunted Denver defense. This week he’ll host a thoroughly discombobulated Chiefs squad that is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing wideouts.
Brandon – CHARCANDRICK WEST. Go West! At $10, you can't beat the value. An exceptional athlete (4.3-4.4 40, 41-inch vertical) with skills in the passing game is something we know that Andy Reid can make good use of. On a likely 12-16 touches, I have little doubt that West can return a tidy profit this week.
Dalton – CHARCANDRICK WEST ($10). There may be something of a committee in KC while trying to replace Jamaal Charles, but West should lead it and has the most upside among the potential replacements. He's in a system that features the RB as the offensive centerpiece, and West is at the cheapest price possible.
Conversely, what player, at any position, are you fading hard in Week 6?
Andy – I'm gonna go ahead and pass on PEYTON MANNING at $34, thanks. Over his last 10 regular season games, dating back to last season, he's thrown just 11 TD passes and he's been picked 13 times. I'm out.
Dalton – ANTONIO BROWN ($35). He needs to be treated as a WR2 as long as Michael Vick is playing over Ben Roethlisberger, yet Brown is being priced here as a top-three wideout. It's absurd DeAndre Hopkins is $3 cheaper.
Scott – I agree with all the Antonio Brown talk here, but I’ll give you some different names. AMEER ABDULLAH ($24) is a borderline drop in seasonal leagues, and certainly shouldn’t be chased in DFS while the Lions stumble along. He doesn’t have a high carry upside, and Theo Roddick is stealing too much work in the passing game. I’m also more leery than most on Odell Beckham (can’t risk the hamstring) and Donte Moncrief (love the player, don’t trust the team).
Liz – ANTONIO BROWN ($35). The second most expensive WR in our daily game, Brown has only managed a total of eight balls for 87 yards since Michael Vick has been under center. Last year his least productive SINGLE game stat line was 8-74-0 in Week 10 at the Jets. If that’s not enough of a deterrent, he’ll also have to contend with the Cardinals opportunistic defense.
Brandon – DEMARCO MURRAY ($27) - Antonio Brown is the consensus here, for obvious (Michael Vick) reasons. And I feel like I have belabored my anti-Peyton Manning narrative to death at this point. So I'll go Murray for the sake of variety. He faces a Giants defense that has allowed the second-fewest rushes of 10-plus yards (9), and this is a player that leads the league in accrued negative rushing yards (-41). The potential for Murray to disappoint this week is very high.
Brad – MARSHAWN LYNCH ($29). The extended layoff combined with an unfriendly matchup – Carolina has allowed just 3.63 yards per carry to RBs – and Thomas Rawls anticipated 8-12 touch load arrow to an unprofitable day. There are tons of cheaper, safer options.
Josh McCown, who has exceeded 300 yards in three consecutive starts, total standard fantasy points against the Broncos in Yahoo DFS (4 pts/pass TD, 1 pt/25 yards passing) 16.9.
Dalton – UNDER. McCown has been terrific, but this is a tough task considering the Broncos have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, including a 3:7 TD:INT ratio.
Scott – UNDER. Come on, man, the Broncos have the best defense in the league and no one is close. McCown hasn't faced a plus defense since the Jets in Week 1.
Brandon – UNDER. Against this defense, I see nothing more than 250 passing yards and a TD toss from McCown, which won't get it done (for the OVER).
Scorching HOT waiver add Charcandrick West, who is expected to split time with Knile Davis in Jamaal Charles' absence, combined yards in Minnesota 84.5.
Scott – Leaning OVER here. The Vikings rushing defense doesn’t look bad on the gross-yardage stats, but it’s allowing 4.7 yards a pop and ranks 29th on the Football Outsiders DVOA page. I’m expecting West to get at least 70 percent of the KC backfield touches right out of the box.
Brandon – OVER. Slightly. I like West's athleticism and his receiving potential, and Minnesota is allowing a healthy 4.7 YPC to opposing RBs. I think he can put up something like 60-70 rushing yards and another 25-plus as a receiver, which will get the job done.
Liz – UNDER. The Vikings can stuff the run. I expect West to see 70 percent of the touches, but I don’t think he’s seasoned or explosive enough to top 85 total yards given the matchup. I predict he rushes for 48 yards on 12 touches and racks up another four catches for 32 yards through the air.
Julio Jones, who is dealing with a balky hamstring but is listed as 'probable' for TNF's matchup versus the Saints, receiving yards 74.5.
Liz – UNDER. The Falcons are an impressively balanced team. Jones has a great matchup with Saints’ CB Brandon Browner likely to cover him, but he’s too valuable to the franchise to risk further injury. Similarly to what happened in Week 4 versus Houston, I think once Atlanta attains a comfortable lead they’ll lean on Hankerson and the ground game.
Brad – UNDER. Short weeks and tender hammies are a toxic mix. The matchup is spectacular, but he'll be lucky to survive the entire game. I'm Sharpied for a 6-72-0 line, all of that coming in the first half.
Scott – My initial lean was to fade, but the Falcons say Julio won't be on a pitch count and the Saints have no pass defense. OVER, men. Maybe Julio is a tough guy to pay up for in DFS, but he's still a Top 5 wideout on my Week 6 board.
Eddie Lacy, who has failed to find the end-zone in three consecutive games and has averaged just over 71 total yards per game during that stretch, total fantasy points (.5 PPR) against San Diego 13.9.
Brandon – OVER. Reports of Lacy's demise have been greatly exaggerated. He's always been a slow starter, and he's been dealing with an ankle injury, to boot. But this week is a great get-right opportunity against San Diego, the second-most generous fantasy run defense. I think Lacy gets 80-plus yards and a TD on Sunay.
Liz – OVER. Lacy is a slow starter (his numbers from the first four weeks of 2014 are nearly identical to those from the first four weeks of this season) and the Chargers are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs. This is the game that gets the big guy’s engine running.
Brad – UNDER. Lacy has resembled a big-boned manatee in recent weeks. His dawdling pace, poor production and unappealing 50.4 snap percentage all raise red flags. San Diego has surrendered a top-10 RB performance in all five weeks, but with James Starks eating into his workload, I'm not convinced Lacy suddenly turns things around. Mark me down for 80-90 total yards and no score.
QB Conundrum. Pick one: Peyton Manning (at Cle), Teddy Bridgewarter (vs. KC), Russell Wilson (vs. Car), Blake Bortles (vs. Hou), Jay Cutler (at Det) or Joe Flacco (at SF)?
Brad – BORTLES. He's made advancements in all facets including deep-ball completion percentage, red-zone execution and overall fantasy worth. Bortles claims his mild shoulder injury isn't an issue and given Houston's shortcomings on defense, he's a borderline top-10 play. He and the Allens connect for at least 250 yards and 2-3 scores.
Dalton – WILSON. I have Cutler, Bortles and Wilson all ranked next to each other this week, with the latter slightly the highest despite the tough matchup. Wilson has gotten 9.3 YPA at home this year, and he's averaged 39.6 rushing yards per game this season. This is a close call though.
Andy – I'll give a (very) small edge to JAY CUTLER, assuming at least one of his injured receiving weapons returns (Jeffery or Royal. Don't care which guy gets back). I've got this group ranked 11, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 19, however, so it's extremely close. Cutler made a few unreal throws last Sunday, and he's clearly clicking with Marquess Wilson. I'm interested.
Antonio Brown, who has soured with Mike Vick under center, receiving yards against Patrick Peterson and the visiting Cardinals 69.5.
Andy – OVER. Such a low total for one of the game's very best. I'm expecting a make-good week for Brown after Vick only targeted him six times on Monday. It gets better. Let's not assume the worst, following two quiet-ish games.
Dalton – OVER. I don't like his DFS price, but Brown should still be able to eclipse 70 yards this week. After getting just six targets last week, expect Pittsburgh to make sure he's a bigger part of Sunday's game plan.
Scott – OVER is the lean. Brown is too talented to stay down forever, and he's been squawking about his role in the offense, even after a victory. Look for an uptick in targets, and for a big play or two.
In his triumphant return to the starting lineup, Marshawn Lynch total yards versus Carolina 79.5.
Andy – I'll take the UNDER here, in part because Carolina can defend the run reasonably well (3.8 YPC allowed). Also, I doubt Lynch will return to his usual workload; Rawls will caddie.
Dalton – UNDER. It remains uncertain how close to 100% he'll be even if active, and I expect Seattle to ease him back into action with Thomas Rawls seeing 5-8 touches. Moreover, the Seahawks' offensive line has struggled, and the Panthers defend the run well.
Brandon – OVER. I'm actually more worried about Lynch's health than I am the Panthers defense. But if Lynch can play the whole game, I think a 60-rushing yard, 20-receiving yard performance is a more than reasonable projection.
Fill in the blank. _________, under 50-percent owned in Yahoo leagues, has the most shocker special appeal in Week 6 (Any position).
Andy – It seems like the answer to this question should always be DAVID JOHNSON, no? Somehow, the man always scores — often twice. He's getting goal-line carries for an excellent offense, so he clearly has a shot at useful day.
Liz – MARQUESS WILSON ($11). Neither Alshon Jefferey nor Eddie Royal are a lock to start on Sunday. Assuming at least one of them sits (my guess is Royal) Wilson will be heavily targeted in a plus matchup.
Scott – Look at the efficiency gap between RYAN MATHEWS ($14) and DeMarco Murray, then have a good laugh. The Giants are a pretty good lot when it comes to run stopping, but you can expose their linebackers in coverage. Mathews will probably be around 9-12 touches this week, but I expect something good to come of it. And if the Eagles play themselves into a corner, perhaps Murray will be on the bench and Mathews will steer the ship in the second half.