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Week 5: Deep Sleepers and DFS Bargains

It’s another TGIF edition of Deep Sleepers and DFS Bargains! Last week I hit on Eddie Royal and Leonard Hankerson. Derek Carr did OK, but since he didn’t finish among the top 12 fantasy QBs I decided to make up for his averageness by adding a few bonus picks. Given the ultra-barren landscape at running back I figured quite a few owners would be on the hunt for flexy flyers.

To review… all of the below players are owned in less than fifty percent of Yahoo leagues (one of them is only owned in two percent of leagues). They’re not the obvious picks, and they’re not without their risks, but that’s why they’re so cheap! I’d never advocate taking all of these guys, but rather utilizing them if a manager were in a pinch at a position or aiming to build a “stars and scrubs” sort of DFS lineup. Have at it!

[Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football: Enter our $750K Week 5 contest]

Willie Snead, WR, New Orleans Saints ($17)
Heading into Week 4, I told you to keep an eye on Snead, suggesting that he would overtake Brandon Coleman’s roster spot and predicting he’d catch four balls for 49 yards in the Saints home game against the Cowboys. I underestimated the kid. He actually totaled six grabs for 89 yards in the contest. While I missed on the projection, I was right about his ascension among the team’s ranks.

From Week 1 to Week 4, Snead’s snaps have increased steadily. He’s gone from playing just 24 percent of snaps at the season’s start to 66 percent this last outing. Not only did he surpass Coleman (whose snaps have dropped from 78 percent to 26 percent), but he was also on the field for 13 more play counts than veteran receiver Marques Colston. In addition, since Week 2 he’s been the Saints second most targeted wideout while also amassing the highest number of receiving yards (177).

On Sunday morning the sure-handed chain mover will face off against an Eagles secondary that is giving up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Allowing 283 passing yards per game, Philadelphia’s DBs have given up scores to everyone from Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall to Terrance Williams and Jeremy Kerley. With Drew Brees’ shoulder in a degenerative state, Snead has the opportunity to emerge as the aging QB’s most reliable option in the short to intermediate passing game. Add in the favorable matchup, and he’s a potential WR2 in PPR formats.

Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers ($15)
Coming off a dreadful Week 4 fantasy outing, Miller is in a prime position to bounce back. With a full ten days to prep between games, the Steelers are likely to install a more creative offense than the one they presented last Thursday night.

The return of deep threat Martavis Bryant should absolutely open things up in the middle of the field. While Michael Vick’s accuracy is a concern, his arm is still plenty strong. San Diego – whose two best CBs are banged up and questionable to start in Week 5 – will have their hands full trying to contain Antonio Brown and the aforementioned Bryant.

My feeling is that Miller will be most utilized near the end zone when the Steelers (acknowledging what a weapon they have in RB Le’Veon Bell) employ heavy doses of play-action. Additionally, the Chargers have allowed TDs to TEs in three of their past four contests.

Kamar Aiken, WR, Baltimore Ravens ($14)
I know, I know, I’ve been down this road before. While Aiken didn’t pop in Week 1 as I thought he might, the journeyman has gained favor over the past few weeks. Last Thursday at Pittsburgh he was the team’s leading receiver, catching five of seven targets for 77 yards and a TD. Of course, much of that had to do with Steve Smith Sr. leaving the game, but it’s worth recognizing that Aiken was able to step up when called upon.

As I’ve previously noted, Aiken is no stranger to filling big shoes. In Week 14 of last season the 6-foot-2 and 215 pound wideout spelled a hobbled Torrey Smith, producing 65 yards and a score on six catches. While his talent won’t light the word on fire, Aiken does have good size and has proven to be dependable. With Smith and TE Crockett Gillmore both expected to sit versus Cleveland, Aiken is the Ravens’ No. 1 receiver.

His matchup against the Browns trio of DBs couldn’t be more ideal. Joe Haden is questionable for the game, nursing a busted finger and bruised ribs. Tramon Williams, who’s the team’s best and most healthy CB, has been spending over a third of his time covering the slot (which Aiken rarely sees). And Pierre Desir has a total of two game starts under his belt since entering the league in 2014. If there were ever a week for Aiken to show up – and ever a time for fantasy owners to use him - this is going to be it!

[Week 5 rankings: QuarterbackRunning BackReceiver | Flex | All Positions]

Nelson Agholor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles ($11)
Heading into the season, Agholor was one of the buzziest rookie names in fantasy. Along with almost all of the Eagles skill position players, however, the freshman wideout has been a massive disappointment. Yet, he remains a consistent starter for the team, receiving upwards of 95 percent of snaps.

While Agholor is far from blameless, his lack of production can in large part be attributed to QB Sam Bradford’s less-than-commanding performance thus far. Last Sunday in DC, though, things seemed to turn a corner. Bradford flashed moments of confidence and competency in the game’s second half, leading Philly on three scoring drives. In that time, Agholor was targeted four times (second only to Jordan Matthews) and came up with three grabs for 64 yards. That’s far from a stellar stat line, but taking into consideration the frequency with which he sees the field in tandem with Bradford’s potential settling in, Agholor’s stock could be rising.

This week he’ll face the Saints’ bottom-ten defense at home. New Orleans’ pass rush isn’t nearly as fearsome as Washington’s so that bodes well for Bradford’s ability to get the ball to his receivers. Additionally, the Saints secondary has been porous, giving up nearly a score a week to opposing WRs (note: in Week 3 they allowed almost 100 yards to Carolina’s Ted Ginn and an additional two scores to TE Greg Olsen). CB Keenan Lewis’ return from a hip injury isn’t the greatest in terms of a matchup for Agholor, but given the former Trojan’s versatility both in the slot and on the outside, there’s a good shot he’ll find enough separation to dominate.

Derek Carrier, TE, Washington Redskins ($10)
A three-sport athlete, Carrier wowed at his pro day in 2012. The former wideout from Beloit College went undrafted, but eventually started for the 49ers the following year. After injuries leveled the Redskins depth at TE the team traded for Carrier in an attempt to back-up Jordan Reed.

Unfortunately, the injury bug bit Washington again in Week 4. Reed – who was playing awesome football and existing as the team’s most productive receiver – left the game with a concussion. Given Reed’s extensive history of head injuries in addition to the fact that he’s dealing with ankle and knee sprains means he probably won’t see the field for a bit.

While Carrier is unlikely to replicate Reed’s exact numbers, he should see a fair number of targets. The Redskins want to run a ball control offense and prevent Kirk Cousins from airing it out. That means a lot of check downs for the team’s signal caller. In Week 4, slot receiver Jamison Crowder (by the way, he’s a sneaky plan in PPR formats) and Reed (pre-exit) led the Skins in targets and made up a combined 12 catches for 102 receiving yards. Admittedly those aren’t astounding stats, but with DeSean Jackson out of the line up and at a position that’s decidedly thin, Carrier will at least have an opportunity to produce.

[Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football: Enter our $750K Week 5 contest]

Bonus RBs:

Andre Williams, RB, New York Giants ($12)
The Giants backfield is a three-headed hydra that is best eschewed. Their matchup at home against San Fran this weekend, however, is exceptionally juicy. While on the road the 49ers have given up a total of 5 rushing TDs to two RBs whose combined age is 62-years-old. I mean, come on.

Even if Williams is the preferred rushing option only because he’s so bad in the passing game, he’s still the back most likely to get the ball at the goal line. In fact, less than a week ago there were rumblings that Rashad Jennings could lose his job to the second year RB. The Giants figure to run A LOT in this game - and while it’s a dart throw - I think the set-up favors Williams.

Christine Michael, RB, Dallas Cowboys ($10)
Perhaps this is wishful thinking, but I feel very strongly that Christine Michael will break out this season. And since it’s my job to be ahead of the curve on these things, I’m going to predict that the break out starts now… in Week 5 against the Patriots.

Bill Belichick is a defensive mastermind who can systematically dismantle nearly any offense… but New England hasn’t been entirely effective when defending the run. Over the first two weeks of the season, the Pats gave up over 100 rushing yards and a score to each of their opponents. Dallas is undoubtedly going to continue to lean on the run and try to control the clock, keeping the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands as much as possible.

With Joseph Randle in the doghouse, Darren McFadden looking cooked, and Lance Dunbar done for the season, Michael has a real chance to seize control of the Cowboys’ backfield. Plus, Dallas has lost their last two games in a row. They need to do something different in order to win and take control of a division that is completely up for grabs. Until Dez Bryant and/or Tony Romo are able to return, the only potential impact player on their roster is Michael. I’d roll him out.

Follow Liz on Twitter @LizLoza_FF.