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Week 12 Starts/Sits: Back both Browns backs

Brandon Funston

With the fantasy playoffs just a couple weeks out, roster decisions have hit a critical stage.  One wrong move could mean sudden death for your fantasy playoff hopes. With that in mind, here are some players that I think look better (San Diego passing game) or worse (Detroit passing game) than usual this week:

 

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STARTS

QB – Philip Rivers, SD vs. StL –  How quickly the wheels have come off the Rivers bandwagon. After back-to-back subpar fantasy efforts (one against a Miami defense that ranks among the very best at limiting opposing QBs in fantasy), Rivers has landed outside the top 12 on the Yahoo Week 12 fantasy QB rankings. Nevermind that he was a top 5 fantasy QB through his first eight games of the season. And, then there's the opponent, a St. Louis defense that has yielded the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the QB position. There's been talk that Rivers is injured, but he's taken every rep in practice this week and is not listed on the injury report (in a week where it seems like every other player in the league is). I suspect a 280-yard, 2-3 TD pass performance against the Rams will silence the concerns that something is wrong with Rivers.

RB – Isaiah Crowell/Terrance West, Cle at Atl –   Start both backfield Browns this week. As the most run-heavy team in the league, the workload concerns have suddenly vanished for the two rookies now that Cleveland has come to its senses and jettisoned the "JAG" (Just a Guy) that is Ben Tate. There's a good chance for both Crowell and West to see 15-plus touches against the second-most generous defense to opposing RBs. Cleveland has had two running backs finish with at least 10 fantasy points four times this season. I fully expect for this game to be their fifth.

RB – Jerick McKinnon, Min vs. GB –   Ben Tate could threaten McKinnon's lead back status in Minnesota, but not this week (just days after being signed). And with Matt Asiata (concussion) looking unlikely to play on Sunday, McKinnon, who is averaging a robust 4.9 YPC, is in line for potentially his largest workload of the season. Even if the Packers run up the score on the Vikings, McKinnon has shown himself to be an adept receiver, which should make garbage time profitable for the rookie. And the Packers have been particularly punished by running backs on the road, as an RB has topped 15 fantasy points in each of Green Bay's five contests outside of Lambeau Field - the Packers are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the RB position on the road. I'm not sure if McKinnon will find the end zone or not, but I love his odds of cruising past 100 yards from scrimmage.

WR – Keenan Allen, SDG vs. StL –   I like Rivers to have a big game this week, and I think Allen is going to lead Rivers' effort in the passing game. I've been as bearish on Allen as anyone this season, but I expect Allen's across-the-middle skills will shine through this week. If you look at the generous Rams secondary, receivers that have been able to work across the middle have racked up some impressive numbers (see Doug Baldwin, Greg Jennings, Larry Fitzgerald, among others). I'm putting Allen down for 100-plus yards and a score this week.

[Week 12 rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Receiver | Tight End | Kicker | DST]

WR – Kendall Wright, Ten at Phi  –  Wright tallied a solid 70 yards last week, and I expect him to do even better this week against a Philly defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to the WR position. The Eagles like to send the house at the opposing QB (second in the league in sacks), so I see Wright's quickness and savvy in the short passing game becoming of the utmost importance for rookie QB Zach Mettenberger this week. Look for Wright to shine especially in PPR formats this week with something like 6-7 catches, 75 yards and a TD.

TE - Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, TB at Chi –   Here's your tight end plug-n-play for Greg Olsen owners, or for anyone stuck having to choose from the dregs of the TE waiver wire. The Bears have allowed 10 touchdowns to the TE position in their past six games. Even Minnesota got a  touchdown from tight end Rhett Ellison last week, and that was one of only two catches by Vikings tight ends in the game. ASJ offers the size you look for in a red zone weapon (6-foot-5, 260 pounds), and he's delivered with a score in two of his past four games. A touchdown to go with 30-40 yards wouldn't be surprising from the rookie this week.

SITS

QB – Matthew Stafford, Det at NE –  Last week, in a shellacking of the Colts on the road, Bill Belichick reminded us of just how good a game planner he can be, holding Andrew Luck to his second-worst fantasy output of the season. Facing Detroit at home this week, it seems pretty obvious where Belichick will focus the attention of his defense. Lions running backs have produced the sixth-fewest rushing yards at the RB position this season, while averaging a meager 3.47 YPC. The Patriots are almost certain to focus on making life difficult for Stafford in the passing game. And life has already been difficult enough for Stafford on the road, where he ranks 17th at the QB position in fantasy points per game among those QBs with at least three road contests under their belt. Stafford was a no-show at Arizona last week (183 yards, 0 TD/1 INT), and I think it's crazy to assume he's going to rebound as a top 12 fantasy signal caller in, arguably, a tougher road matchup this week.


RB – Lamar Miller, Mia at Den –  Miller, who has been dealing with a sore shoulder, surprised in Week 11 with 98 yards from scrimmage against a stout Buffalo defense. That effort might have some Miller owners feeling a bit more relaxed about his prospects this week in another tough matchup against Denver. But the road date with a Denver team that was just embarrassed by the Rams last week is the last place I'd want my running back to be lining up at in Week 12. First off, Miller's top 12 status at the fantasy RB position has been very TD-dependent (his six TDs have helped offset the fact that he has topped 100 YFS in just one game). And in their past six contests, the Broncos defense has allowed just one TD to a RB (Shane Vereen TD catch). And if this game gets away from the Dolphins, Miller hasn't really excelled in the passing game (31st among RBs with 152 receiving yards). So, hoping for ground success from Miller against a Broncos defense allowing 49 rushing yards and 3.06 YPC to the opposing RBs at home is wishful thinking.

RB – Jonas Gray, NE vs. Det  –  Sure, it's tough to bench Gray after a four-TD performance (and 199 rushing yards) in Week 11, but let's not pretend like we know that Bill Belichick will dial up more of the same this week. Zigging when everyone expects him to zag is what Belichick does best. And not only that, Gray is facing a Lions defense that has delivered a smackdown to nearly all comers at the RB position (second-fewest rushing yards allowed). The Lions have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to the RB position, which sets up well for Shane Vereen to re-enter the backfield picture this week. But Gray, as a rush-only RB (no catches on the year), shouldn't be counted on for more than 60 yards and is less than a 50/50 bet to score a rushing TD against a team that has allowed just four rushing scores to RBs on the year.

WR – Golden Tate, Det at NE –  All the reasons I don't care for Stafford this week (see above) also apply to Tate. And add to it the possibility that Tate could be fighting to get off Revis Island this week (with the much taller Brandon Browner squaring up with Calvin Johnson). Considering that Tate is coming off a disappointing 2/41line at Arizona last week, it's hard for me to conjure up top 30 fantasy WR feelings for him this week. My forecast calls for a modest 5/55/0 line.

WR – DeAndre Hopkins, Hou vs. Cin –   The Bengals don't give up many big plays in the passing game, allowing a league-low three pass plays of 40-plus yards and just 6.5 yards per catch (sixth-lowest mark). The Bengals have also allowed a league-low 11 TD passes. For a receiver like Hopkins, who thrives on the deep ball (16.6 yards per catch; fifth-most catches of 40-plus yards), that spells trouble. I like Andre Johnson stepping up in a high-volume, shorter yardage type effort in the Texans passing game this week, with Hopkins taking a backseat - something in the neighborhood of 50 yards sans a TD.

TE -  Kyle Rudolph, Min vs. GB – I'll admit, I was a little too hung up on the matchup last week in listing Rudolph, upon his return from hernia surgery, as a "Start" candidate against a Bears defense that was hemorrhaging touchdowns to the tight end position. Unfortunately, Rudolph played in less than 30 percent of Minnesota's plays from scrimmage, and QB Teddy Bridgewater wasn't interested in throwing to his tight ends, anyways (just three TE targets). This week, my colleagues all have Rudolph ranked as a top 15 tight end in a tougher matchup (Green Bay). For a player that wasn't targeted last week and who is regarded for his red zone prowess but is facing a defense that has allowed a TE to score in just one game this season, I can't even endorse Rudolph as a top 20 tight end this week.