Week 12 Over/Under: House of T-Pain, can you really count on Richardson?

Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders for Week 12.

With the Cincinnati Bengals backfield now healthy, which jungle cat has the bigger fantasy day in Houston, Gio Bernard or Jeremy Hill? 

Dalton – HILL. Bernard has missed the past three games and totaled 63 yards over the previous two contests before that. Who knows how recovered he is from dealing with both hip and shoulder injuries. Meanwhile, Hill has run for more than 150 yards in two of the past three games, recording two scores over that span.

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Scott – HILL. The Bengals have finally figured out, and accepted, who their best back is. Bernard also might be the type of back who's more effective with a limited workload.

Brad – HILL. If we're talking PPR, this would be a much tougher decision, but in standard formats, the healthier and fresher Hill is the proper play. At a minimum a 60-40 split should be implemented with the rookie again operating as the primary rusher and goal-line option. Against a Texans front that's allowed 4.32 yards per carry, I would suspect Hill could compile 80 or so total yards and a score.

Sack showdown. What D logs more QB takedowns: Buffalo (vs. NYJ) or San Fran (vs. Wash)?

Andy – BUFFALO. I'm gonna go ahead and select the defense that currently leads the NFL in sacks, by a mile. Just call me "Cap'n Huevos." For the season, Buffalo has more than twice as many sacks (39) as San Francisco (17). This one seems like a layup.

Brandon – SAN FRANCISCO. The Jets have allowed one more sack than Washington, though the 'Skins seem to be intent on closing that gap, allowing a hearty 17 sacks in their past four games. With Aldon Smith back for the 49ers, I like San Francisco for at least 4-5 sacks this week.

Dalton – BUFFALO. First off, please don’t ever use the phrase “San Fran” again. It’s not quite as bad as “Frisco,” but it’s unacceptable nevertheless. Anyway, while I fully expect the 49ers pass rush to improve with Aldon Smith back, and it’s unclear how all that snow in Buffalo will affect the game, it’s hard not to pick the Bills here, as they lead the NFL with 39 sacks (San Francisco has just 17 on the year, which is pretty crazy considering they’ve allowed just 6.3 YPA).

Project Josh Gordon's line (Receptions, yards and touchdowns) in his triumphant (hopefully) return to the lineup at Atlanta.

Brandon –  5-75-1

Dalton – 5-70-1.

Brad – 7-101-1.

Jonas Gray, off a mesmerizing 200-plus rush yards and four scores in Indy, standard fantasy points in the follow-up versus Detroit 11.9.

Dalton – UNDER. I expect Gray to be a top-20 fantasy back moving forward, but the Lions have allowed an NFL-low 3.0 YPC (next lowest is 3.3) and just four rushing scores on the year. Don’t be surprised when New England’s offensive game plan is much different this week.

Andy – UNDER. I won't say it's out of the question, because he'll only need 60 yards and a goal-line score to get to this number. But you're nuts if you expect the Pats to break out last week's gameplan repeatedly. Detroit's defensive front is obviously a much tougher challenge than Indy's.

Scott – UNDER. Bill Belichick has no care for the most recent result, he just wants to win the game in front of him. New opponent, new challenges. The Patriots should realize the hardest way to beat Detroit is through what Gray offers – rushing attempts up the middle. 

Marques Colston, expected to work up a lather with Brandin Cooks toast, receiving yards against visiting Baltimore 74.5.

Andy – OVER, barely. This seems like a good number, though. I never expect monster days from Colston, but Drew Brees will keep him busy. I'm equally interested in Kenny Stills in this one. Put me down for 77 yards on five catches for Colston, with a good shot at a receiving score.

Scott – UNDER. He's made that number just twice all year, and has one lousy touchdown. It's not like Cooks was headed to the Pro Bowl or anything – he's mostly been a flex option. I hope all of my opponents talk themselves into low-upside veterans like Colston. 

Dalton – UNDER. I fully agree Cook’s injury benefits Colston, but he faces a Baltimore secondary that’s allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. The loss of CB Jimmy Smith certainly helps, but Colston has averaged more than 74.5 yards per game just once over the past seven seasons.

Ryan Tannehill, who quietly has posted top-12 numbers this season, combined yards this week in Denver 324.5. 

Brad – OVER. Denver is going to unleash hell after a humiliating effort last week in St. Louis. That means Tannehill will work up quite the lather. Considering his rushing ability, Denver's vunerabilities on pass D and the projected high volume, he should sail past the proposed number and chip in a couple touchdowns.

Andy – OVER, but empty. I'll be surprised if Denver's offense coughs up another hairball. Tannehill has a clear path to useful fantasy stats, no question, but I'm also expecting a turnover or two.

Brandon – UNDER. Only two QBs have topped this number versus Denver this season, and you'll certainly recognize the names - Brady and Luck. And Tannehill has only (just barely) topped this number twice. I get the reasoning for thinking he might pile up garbage-time production, but the odds still point to an Under here.

[Week 12 rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Receiver | Tight End | Kicker | DST]

Isaiah Crowell, the presumed committee head in Cleveland, total touches in Atlanta 16.5. 

Brandon  – OVER. I think both Crowell and West could top this number, considering that Cleveland is the most run-heavy team in the league (it was just two weeks agao that the browns RBs combined for 48 carries) and Atlanta has had the third-most rushing attempts against its defense.

Scott – UNDER. This is basically a hot-hand and game-flow question, the unknowable stuff. I'd be surprised if Terrance West received less than 7-12 touches, and that puts a cap on Crowell's theoretical upside. The Crow is still worth considering if you're in a backfield pinch, but he's far from a slam dunk.

Brad – UNDER. Only Mike Pettine and Kyle Shanahan know which Browns back will carry the heftiest load. Crowell is the anticipated starter, but practice performance ultimately decides who will trot out of the tunnel with the ones. I'm guessing Terrance West sees at least 14-15 touches, relegating Crowell to an identical workload. Still, both backs are RB2 worthy in 12-teamers based on the superb matchup.

Coby Fleener, who could see numerous targets with Dwayne Allen dinged, total standard fantasy points agains the Jags 9.9. 

Dalton – OVER. He has 18 targets over the past two weeks, resulting in 221 yards and a score. The Colts are the biggest favorites in Week 12 and will be missing Ahmad Bradshaw and (quite possibly) Dwayne Allen, so Fleener sure looks like a top fantasy tight end.

Brad – OVER. Dwayne Allen hasn't practiced all week and is trending toward doubtful. Fleener eclipsed this number with Allen on the field against the Jags in Week 3. Given the likely increase in targets and coming off his finest effort of the fantasy season (7-144-0 vs. NE), he's a strong bet for at least 60 yards and a TD.

Scott – OVER. We're all chewing trident. Fleener and Andrew Luck showed marvelous chemistry last week against New England, and the Jaguars struggle with seam coverage. Heck, Fleener got them for 49 yards and a touchdown in the earlier meeting this year.

Enter the house of T-Pain. With Ahmad Bradshaw out of the picture Trent Richardson, who faces the Jags, will A) BOOM, B) MOSTLY BUST, C) ROYALLY SUCK, D) MAKE OWNERS FEEL INDIFFERENT

Brad – A) BOOM. Yes, he would find it difficult penetrating a wall made of Jell-O, but through sheer volume he should crack the position's top-15 this week. The Jags, who rank top-10 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs, are forgiving. A final tally in range of 80-90 total yards and a score is achievable.

Dalton – A) BOOM. I guess I have to stay out on this limb after this.

Brandon – D) INDIFFERENT. As the No. 29 fantasy RB to date, indifference has pretty much defined T-Rich's season. I can see him getting close to double-digit fantasy points against the Jags on Sunday, but I think Dan "Boom" Herron is going to get something close to 10 touches (perhaps more if garbage time comes early) - which is to say I don't think T-Rich is going to get this massive workload just because Bradshaw is out. He had 80 yards against the Jags earlier this season, and I'm guessing he lands in a similar fantasy point range (8-10 points).

Top-Five Buys. Your best bets (versus the spread or over/unders) for Week 12.

Brandon – 1) PHI -11 vs Ten 2) NYG +3 vs. Dal 3) NYG/Dal over 47.5 4) NO/Bal under 50 5) NE -7 vs Det

Dalton – 1) ATL -3 vs. Cle 2) NO -3.5 vs. Bal 3) ARI +6.5 at Sea 4) DEN -7 vs. Mia 5) NYG +3 vs. Dal

Scott –  1) NYG +3, 2) ARI +6.5, 3) Cle/ATL under 47; 4) PHI -11, 5) DEN -7.

Brad – 1) Cle/Atl OVER 47, 2) Hou (-1) vs. Cin, 3) Ari +6.5 at Sea, 4) NYG +3 vs. Dal, 5) StL +5 at SD

Andy – 1) Sea -6.5 vs. Ari, 2) Cle-Atl OVER 47, 3) Hou -1 vs. Cin, 4) Dal -3 at NYG, 5) Cle +3 at Atl.

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