Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders for Week 10.
Yahoo DFS Bargain Bin. What cheaply priced QB/RB/WR/TE will turn the biggest profit in Week 10?
Brad – CHARCANDRICK WEST ($17). Consider West an early Christmas present, DFS enthusiasts. Beating the tribal drum of late, the rusher has averaged 24 touches per game and eclipsed 20 fantasy points in consecutive games. Obviously the matchup isn't ideal, but Denver is far from invincible versus the run, especially against versatile rushers. Six plowshares have scored at least double-digit points in clashes with the Broncos and Denver has allowed the sixth-most receptions per game to RBs. Expect West to surge past 100 total yards with a score.
Andy – JAMES STARKS ($18) will be starting for Green Bay on Sunday and presumably dominating the backfield touches, as he has in recent games. It's awfully tough to imagine Detroit putting up much of a fight in this one. I'm expecting 18-20 touches for Starks, plus at least one score.
Scott – I'll sign off on the James Starks endorsements here, but you need some additional ideas. How about KIRK COUSINS ($34) at home and against a New Orleans secondary that can't stop anything right now? Go watch the Giants and Titans tapes again. Rob Ryan must have some incredible Polaroids.
Liz – JAMES STARKS ($18). He had three times as many touches and produced more than ten times as many yards as Eddie Lacy in Week 9 at Carolina. Starks is a more effective dual threat than his hefty counterpart and has publicly been named the lead back by head coach Mike McCarthy. This week he’ll face off against the Lions’ third worst run defense.
Brandon – HARRY DOUGLAS ($11). Just to provide an answer other than Starks here, I'll offer up the near bottom-dollar option of Douglas, who should get another start in place of the injured Kendall Wright. Last week, Douglas manned the slot and pulled in five catches and 73 yards. I expect him to be at least that good again, if not better, against Carolina corner Bene Benwikere, who has allowed the most receiving yardage in slot coverage of any CB in the league, and has also given three TD catches.
Dalton – JAMES STARKS ($18). He's emerged as Green Bay's new feature back and gets to face a Detroit defense that's allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season and an NFL-high 30.6 ppg. The Packers offense should go crazy at home coming off back-to-back losses, and Starks has the upside to be a top-five fantasy back in Week 10.
Conversely, what player, at any position, are you stiff-arming in Week 10 DFS?
Andy – Various Cardinals and Seahawks, all positions. If you need me to name just one, I'll say LARRY FITZGERALD ($29). He's facing a Seattle defense that's allowed the fewest yards (797), TDs (1) and receptions (71) to wide receivers.
Dalton – LAMAR MILLER ($30). He shouldn't be a total bust, but this is a high price for someone facing an Eagles defense that's yielded the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, including just one rushing score on the year.
Scott – It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking the mediocre Jaguars defense must be a sieve for all offensive players to exploit. Alas, Jacksonville's quietly been terrific against the run, allowing a league-low 3.2 yards per attempt. It's not the best week to dial up JUSTIN FORSETT ($31).
Liz – MARSHAWN LYNCH ($29). After nine weeks of action, Lynch is outside of the top 36 fantasy players at the position. With only three scores and just one 100+ rushing yard outing on the season, it’s hard to trust Lynch in a matchup against an opportunistic Cardinals defense that is giving up the seventh fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Brandon – LARRY FITZGERALD ($29). Gotta play the history card on this one, as Fitzgerald is averaging 26 yards and has 0 TDs in his past five meetings with Seattle. And in his four trips to Seattle during the Pete Carroll era, he's averaged 28.5 YPG. And the Legion of Boom is same as it ever was in fantasy, as it allows the fewest fantasy PPG to the WR position,
Brad – JONATHAN STEWART ($28). Once a bargain, Stewart is now overpriced. He's pumped up the volume in recent weeks crossing 20 carries in four-straight games. However, his opponent, Tennessee, is a very underrated run defense. On the season, the Titans have allowed just 3.93 yards per carry, 90.8 rushing yards per game and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. He should finish in the 75-85-yard range, but a TD is a necessity to justify the cost. Considering Cam and Tolbert are prime poachers ... Pass!
Carson Palmer, slated to face the 'Legion of Boom' Sunday night, total standard Yahoo fantasy points (1 pt/25 yards passing, 4 pts/pass TD) 17.9.
Dalton – UNDER. Palmer has been great, but the Seahawks have allowed just 6.7 YPA and six passing scores this season. In Seattle during prime time, few matchups are tougher than Palmer's Sunday night.
Scott – Have to shade UNDER here. Palmer has just two touchdown passes against Seattle in his last two meetings (albeit in 2013), against six picks, and I expect the Seahawks defense to be more cohesive after a bye week (granted, Arizona also comes in rested, but Seattle probably needed the break more).
Brandon – UNDER. I'll go slightly under. Of the four QBs to top this mark against Seattle this season, three of them benefited from a TD run, something that I can't imagine the statuesque Palmer being able to pull off.
Karlos Williams, even with Shady McCoy expected to suit up, touchdowns against the unyielding Jets .5.
Scott – OVER. Ping me when Williams doesn't score a touchdown. And look at that 6.6 YPC. I'm madly in love.
Brandon – OVER. Six touchdowns in five games speaks for itself. Williams offers the power at the goal line that Shady does not, so if the Bills get close, I'm expecting that Williams is going to get that call, especially as McCoy's shoulder is likely to be something less than 100 percent healthy.
Liz – OVER. He’s produced a TD in every game he’s played… regardless of McCoy’s status/health. The well will eventually run dry, but coming off of a short week against a Jets squad that has struggled as of late, I’m not betting against the rookie.
With a game under his belt and blessed with an exploitable matchup against New Orleans, DeSean Jackson receiving yards 74.5.
Liz – OVER. Why not? He has the ability to break off a huge run and take the top off of a defense (especially one as inept as New Orleans) at any moment. He shook off some rust at New England in Week 9, but I think he’ll be ready to perform in Week 10. With Kirk Cousins under center, DJax is unlikely to see a huge volume, but he will absolutely have the advantage over the Saints struggling secondary this Sunday.
Brad – OVER. Jay Gruden is adamant about getting D-Jax going. That combined with the fact New Orleans ranks No. 1 in 40-plus yard pass plays and No. 2 in 20-plus pass plays allowed and that sounds like a formula for fantasy success. It would be no shock if Jackson flirts with triple-digit yards at home.
Scott – I hate betting on it before I see it, but going OVER nonetheless. The Saints will allow you to do anything you want downfield. Eli Manning and Marcus Mariota just torched them. The Redskins will make noise at home.
Gio Bernard, who has completely outperformed battery mate Jeremy Hill in every facet this season, combined yard against Houston 89.5.
Brandon – OVER. I'm finally off the Jeremy Hill bandwagon. When Hill was pulled from last week's game when he lost control of the ball after being ruled down by conduct (so, to clarify, not a fumble), I'd finally seen enough. Gio has been much more productive and Cincy clearly has a lot more faith in him than they do Hill. So, in a soft matchup against Houston, I think the workload will be there for Gio to roll over this mark.
Liz – OVER. Bernard has averaged over 83 total yards per game. Houston, his opponent in Week 10, is giving up an average of over 148 total yards to RBs per game. Given how ineffective Jeremy Hill was in a plus matchup last week, I’m leaning on Bernard to continue to lead Ciny’s backfield this go around.
Brad – OVER. After netting just three touches the week before, Gio was featured 14 times in Week 9. Because he's more explosive, assertive, elusive and versatile compared to Hill, Hue Jackson has to feed to him at least 15 times against the Texans. Houston has surrendered 153.3 total yards per game and 4.45 yards per carry to RBs. With all that in mind, Sharpie me for 94 total yards and a touch.
Jeremy Maclin receiving yards against the Broncos, down future professional wrestler Aqib Talib and DeMarcus Ware, 59.5.
Brad – UNDER. He fell just short of the proposed number in KC's first battle with Denver in Week 2. Even down Talib, a similar output is in the cards. Remember, the Broncos possess arguably the deepest defense in the league. Chris Harris and Bradley Roby, who've surrendered a combined 72.3 QB rating to their assignments, keep Maclin in check.
Dalton – UNDER. He's finished under this mark in four of seven games played this year, and Sunday he gets a Denver secondary that's ceded an NFL-low 5.9 YPA (and somehow just one touchdown to opposing wide receivers).
Andy – UNDER. Maclin is so obviously the receiver to stop in KC. I have to think the league's best defense will shut down a not-so-thrilling passing game. Talib might be out, but Harris ain't too shabby.
Same game, different name. Pick a PPR play: Shane Vereen (vs. NE) or James White (at NYG)?
Andy – VEREEN. Easy. We have no guarantees with White. Zero. None. I'd be shocked if Dion Lewis' workload falls to any one player. There's no way I'd play White or Bolden this week, except out of absolute desperation.
Dalton – WHITE. He clearly has the lower floor being such an unknown, but White also has more upside if he's given even 75 percent of Dion Lewis' previous role. Give me the back tied to an offense that leads the NFL with 34.5 ppg.
Scott – VEREEN, only because I don't want to venture into the New England speculation abyss until I absolutely have to. Too risky, gamers. We've lost too many good men.
Jeremy Langford, who brilliantly tallied 142 total yards and a score last Monday in San Diego, total fantasy points in the follow-up at St. Louis 12.9.
Andy – UNDER. As of this writing, we can't even rule out Matt Forte. Langford is an excellent back who answered all the open questions on Monday night, but St. Louis is a much tougher assignment. He'll need a TD to reach this total, and I don't think it's comin'.
Dalton – UNDER. Langford really impressed and looks like the future in Chicago's backfield, but he gets an extremely tough matchup this week. In fact, the Rams have allowed just 8.0 ppg over their last three home games, including zero touchdowns over the past 10 quarters.
Brandon – OVER. I think receiving yards are going to be a big boost for Langford's fantasy tally on Sunday. Langford spent time as a receiver in college, and his pass catching skills were evident on a sweet diving grab he made against San Diego on Monday night last week. And the Rams' ferocious pass rush should push Jay Cutler to the quick check down to his RB in the passing game - the Rams have allowed almost 52 YPG receiving to RBs (10th-most). I see the potential for Langford to go for 50-plus yards receiving, leading to an Over of this mark.
Fill in the blank. _________, under 50-percent owned in Yahoo leagues, will have everyone in a frenzy to pick up after Week 10 (Any position).
Andy – "Frenzy" might be a little strong, but there's a nice opportunity ahead for CHRIS GIVENS in Baltimore (and he's just $11 in Yahoo daily). Joe Flacco can't throw to Aiken on every attempt.
Liz – ALFRED MORRIS. I doubt there will be a "frenzy" to pick up Morris, but his volume is worth monitoring. Heading into Week 10, Jay Gruden admitted that he needed to get Alf and the running game going. Given Matt Jones’ proclivity to turning over the ball, it’s very likely Washington will look to the vet to produce against an underwhelming Saints’ squad.
Scott – I approve of the Behrens message on Givens, let's start with that. I also want to talk about JAY AJAYI, who was exciting in his (albeit brief) debut last week. I don't care much for handcuffs in August, but I endorse them now, with the shift of rosters changing. If you own Lamar Miller, Ajayi becomes compulsory insurance, but I like the rookie as a home-run lottery ticket anywhere.