Thursday Fantasy Fliers, Week 8: Let's discuss your Keenan Allen problem
This week, the Thursday game is a feast for the fantasy community. We've conditioned ourselves to be wary of mid-week football, sure, but tonight we get a pair of dominant offenses. Denver again ranks first in the NFL in scoring (31.5 PPG), and San Diego isn't far behind (26.3); these teams have combined to average 754.0 total yards per game.
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In fact, the Broncos and Chargers have been so ridiculously productive this season that neither team offers a starting skill player who perfectly fits the definition of a flier for our purposes here (35 percent owned or less). So instead of building a case for, say, Ladarius Green — a guy who played only eight snaps last week and saw no targets — let's instead break protocol and consider a widely owned fantasy asset who has, to date, disappointed everyone.
Keenan Allen, come on down.
Allen has been one of the most vexing non-injury fantasy duds of 2014. We've arrived at the halfway point of the season, and somehow we're still waiting for Keenan's first touchdown. After his eight-TD rookie season, we all expected more — and some of us expected a lot more.
But as often happens in the NFL, when you give coaches and coordinators a full offseason to adjust to a player or scheme, they come up with solutions. Allen has drawn considerably more attention this year than he did as a rookie — more press coverage, more safety and linebacker help — which has of course created opportunities for other Chargers receivers. Good for the team, not ideal for Allen's fantasy owners.
Here's Allen's position coach, via U-T San Diego, discussing the increased focus on the second-year receiver:
"People, they aren't stupid," wide receivers coach Fred Graves said. "They're not just going to let him run free. They're going to take some things away."
[...]
"I think Keenan's doing a fine job," Graves said. "He's matured in a lot of ways. When I say matured, he's understanding defenses and what they're trying to take away, what our concepts are and what we're trying to do. If you want to put a bunch of stats into it, maybe he's not doing what people think. But I think he's doing enough to win games for us."
Allen actually leads his team in both targets (52) and receptions (34), so it's not as if he's simply been an afterthought. Big plays have been scarce for Allen, as only two of his receptions have gained 20-plus yards. He's had little room to operate after the catch.
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Still, it's ridiculous (and fluky) that Allen doesn't have an end-zone spike this year. He currently has the most receptions and most targets of any player in the NFL who has not yet caught a touchdown pass.
Denver's corners are excellent, so it's hardly a layup that Keenan will make a house call in Week 8. But we should note that he roasted the Broncos twice last season; he caught a pair of scores in a mid-December win at Denver, then later delivered the best stat line of his pro career in the playoff loss (6-142-2). Don't be shocked if he finally breaks the plane this week.
An argument can easily be made that Allen is the best buy-low in our game right now. He's certainly on the approved list for Thursday night, just like pretty much every other player on the field.
