Thursday Dart: Going ugly with the Jaguars

The squares had a field day in Week 9, as the shiny favorites grabbed the action in 10 of 14 matchups. I'm rarely going to do well in that type of instance, though Dallas was one play away from making the number in Atlanta. Okay, we've all heard that one before. After a 2-3 week on the ledger and a 28-17 ATS start to the year, let's kick off Week 10.

Jaguars +3 vs. Colts: The number is actually higher in some games and outlets, but I use what's in Yahoo! Pro Football Pick-Em. The Jags are home, of course, and that's a bigger-than-normal advantage when we're talking about these short-turnaround weeks, the Thursday package. Jacksonville has won three in a row in the series, too; maybe the 2011 results don't matter, but the 2012 match at Indianapolis has some value to it. Everyone remembers Detroit running roughshod over Jacksonville last week, but don't forget the Jags gave the Packers a scare, in Green Bay, just two weeks back.

Call it a go-ugly pick, call it a contrarian pick. Fine with me. I'm on board with all the Andrew Luck praise, but his fine play overshadows a lot of problems with the Colts. Hey, I love the story, too. But the value is with the home dog, the ugly-duckling here.

I respect what Jacksonville's pass defense has been able to do; it's around league average in YPA allowed and rating allowed. And while the Lions had a fantasy feast on the ground in Jacksonville last week, the Jags are actually league-average with their YPC allowed, too. Don't talk yourself into this defense being a sieve; that's not the case at all. This game should be competitive, and there's legitimate upset-potential.

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 28-17
2011: 41-39
2010: 49-34