You should know the rules by now. We'll make five picks against the Yahoo! Pro Football Pick-Em line, and we encourage you to do the same. Let's get to the Week 7 clipboard.
Redskins +6.5 at Giants: It's time for a sell high on the Giants, especially when you consider the emotions of the situation: big upset win on the road, likely to be followed by a flat performance. When you punch the situation into Spreadapedia's database (an upset win at +6 or more, then favored by 6 or greater the next week), the team in question only covers around 45 percent of the time. Mike Shanahan found a way to steal both of these games last year, and now he actually has some weapons.
Patriots -10.5 vs. Jets: Most of this pick's rationale in the Breakfast Table, if you care to mosey over there. The Jets don't have enough secondary depth to match all of New England's targets. If New York wants to run Shonn Greene into the ground, New England is capable to stop it. You can throw over the top of the New England defense, but where is the scary part of the Jets offense? Who's the Sidney Rice or Torrey Smith likely to take over this game? I don't see it. The Patriots will win, and it might be comically lopsided.
Bills -3.5 vs. Titans: The metrics I trust show Buffalo as a team somewhere in the middle of the NFL parity scrum, while Tennessee is truly one of the bottom dwellers of the league. My eyes, my scouting, say the same thing. Buffalo also has a legitimate home field advantage, one of the few teams that can still boast that. This true line should be in the six range.
Steelers -1.5 at Bengals: Mike Tomlin is one of those coaches who has a very strong track record in bounce-back games, and Ben Roethlisberger has four straight wins in this series. I'd feel better if the Steelers had their full complement of guys back on defense, but how can anyone trust a Bengals secondary that was just embarrassed by Brandon Weeden?
Lions +6.5 at Bears: The historical trends actually favor Chicago here, but it feels like a lot of points to give in a divisional game where the underdog is no walkover. And there's always a chance Jay Cutler could throw a few to the wrong-colored helmets.
Last Week: 4-1
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