It's the most difficult slate of the year if you ask me, not that there's anything predictive about that comment. Here are the final four picks from Week 10.
Vikings +2 vs. Lions: If you're in different contests, you might get the full three here. Enjoy that. I see all the Detroit angles: the Lions are finally balanced on offense and playing well, Christian Ponder is in a major slump, Percy Harvin is out, etc. But the line has adjusted to meet those real and perceived factors, and a pick of Minnesota also has advantages: you get the better defense, the home team, the side with Adrian Peterson (who could potentially win this game on his own) and the team that won the first matchup. Matt Stafford still makes a few loose throws every week. Sometimes you have to pick the ugly ducklings, run on the contrarian side.
Bears -1 vs. Texans: You have to pay the Jay Cutler tax in this one, and Chicago's offensive line is going to struggle with the Texans defensive front. That's a lot to concede at the go. But the Texans might be with a compromised Owen Daniels (or perhaps without him altogether) and Houston's offensive line has only been average this year (despite what the reputation wants you to believe). I'll gladly side with Chicago's defense and home field, especially since I'm allowed to spot less than a field goal. A low-scoring win for the hosts.
Steelers -12.5 vs. Chiefs: Spotting big numbers is generally not how I roll, but Pittsburgh's rounding into form nicely and I don't expect a letdown to come in a stand-alone game at home. Todd Haley, the Steelers OC, isn't likely to ease up on the gas pedal here, given his loathing for his former employers. Is there anything about Romeo Crennel that inspires confidence? I'll even give you the final score: Steelers 41, Chiefs 10.
Seahawks -6 vs. Jets: I realize the Jets come into this match rested, while the Seahawks are in advance of their bye (that's been an ATS kiss of death this year). But there's a lot to hang your hat on with this pick. Seattle is super at home (this year and historically), Marshawn Lynch brings it every week (and is up against a defense that hands out 4.4 yards per carry) and Mark Sanchez doesn't play well from a deficit. All I ask is for Seattle to get some sort of a lead, then let the defense and home cooking take over.
This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 2-3
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