Spin Doctors: Marcus Mariota vs. Eli Manning
Does the thought of drafting a QB early make you ill? Well in this edition of the Docs, Liz Loza and Brad Evans write prescriptions for late-round signal callers. Loza advises a heavy dose of Eli Manning. Meanwhile, Evans suggests the dual-threat talents of Marcus Mariota. Will the vet or the upstart overachieve in 2016? Read their case studies below and declare a winner in the comments section.
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Evans unleashes in favor of Mariota:
In his rookie campaign, the ballyhooed quarterback delivered on his promise, for the most part. He displayed considerable pocket poise (No. 8 in under-pressure accuracy percentage), excelled on play action and occasionally tallied starter-level production for fantasy purposes. In fact his 0.51 fantasy points per dropback, according to Pro Football Focus, was the eighth-best mark at the position, greatly outdistancing Eli (0.47). Despite his struggles with the deep ball, largely due to constant duress, the youngster surpassed the 20 fantasy-point mark in eight of 12 games. His 204.0 total fantasy points was the ninth-best output by a rookie QB ever.
And that #TeamHuevos was Mariota just scratching the surface.
The Titans are a developing juggernaut. Flush with draft picks thanks to the Los Angeles Rams’ man-crush for Jared Goff, they fortified the offensive line by selecting OT Jack Conklin and added more muscle to the ground game by picking up Derrick Henry. The former Heisman winner and DeMarco Murray give Tennessee the 1-2 ground punch it sorely missed last year. Their presence should ease pressure on Mariota and create more exploitable opportunities for the QB downfield. The addition of sure-handed WR Rishard Matthews was another win. Matthews, Dorial Green-Beckham, Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker are a respectable arsenal.
More enticing, Mike Mularkey is adamant about taking advantage of Mariota’s legs, which were terribly underutilized last year. Within the coach’s ‘exotic smashmouth’ offense, roughly 6-8 designed QB runs per game aren’t out of the question. That happens and Mariota is sure to land in the 500-600 rushing yards range, a salivating prospect for fantasy. Chip in a likely 4,000 passing yards and 30-plus total touchdowns and he's sure to turn a hefty profit.
Outside of Younger Manning possessing no rhythm, there’s nothing wrong with the vet. He’s durable, proven and has arguably the game’s best wide receiver, Odell Beckham, at his disposal. However, Mariota’s multidimensionality and the Titans’ encouraging offseason scores the ‘upside’ edge. Oh, and the near two-round differential (Mariota ADP: 123.3, Eli: 100.5) is also attractive.
When the dust settles on 2016, Mariota will be the more valuable passer and a fixture inside the QB top-10.
Loza stands tall for Manning: The subject of many a meme, Manning has long been a hard-to-trust fantasy commodity. Whether it’s his penchant for turning over the ball or his uncanny resemblance to a Jim Henson creation, the two-time Super Bowl Champion has always failed to receive a modicum of the respect that his older brother commanded.
Yet, Manning has been an FF QB1 over the last two seasons, finishing among the top-ten players at the position in 2014 and 2015. This past year, with a healthy Odell Beckham Jr., he scored a career-high 35TDs and passed for over 4,400 yards. Moreover, he closed out his eleventh season starting all sixteen regular season games… that’s 187 consecutive starts (including post-season outings) since 2005.
In an attempt to keep the ultra-durable vet upright, the G-Men added to and shuffled around their offensive line. The tinkering appeared to work as Football Outsiders ranked New York’s line the sixth best in terms of pass protection. Sacked 27 times, Manning saw the ground on twelve fewer occasions than Mariota (39 sacks on 12 games). Additionally, the Titans pass protecting unit came in dead last, per the aforementioned metrics site.
While Tennessee’s signal caller absolutely boasts upside and mobility, the offense in which he’s playing is decidedly bland. The smashmouth, I’ll buy into. Its exoticness, however, remains to be seen.
In 2015, the Titans called just 581 passing plays. Compare that to the Gaints’ 666, which was the fourth most in the league. Additionally, Mariota’s weapons are an unbalanced blend of aging and unproven talents. Manning on the other hand, not only gets to throw to OBJ, but will also have a more fully integrated Shane Vereen as well as dynamic rookie WR Sterling Shepard at his disposal.
According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Manning is currently the twelfth QB being selected in fantasy drafts, coming off the board in the middle of the ninth round. Given his recent numbers there’s no reason to believe he won’t return on that value. While Mariota is a rising talent and fine stash for redrafters, Manning remains the closest thing to a sure thing an owner can snatch up after round six.
SEE ALSO: Randall Cobb vs Kelvin Benjamin
Follow our fearless forecasters on twitter, Liz (@LizLoza_FF) and Brad (@YahooNoise).
