Shuffle Up: Julio and Maclin, then you'll be cackling
If you're new to the Shuffle Up series, welcome aboard. Let's settle on the general rules, then get you some prices.
[Rankings: Top players overall and by position]
The first thing to know: the dollar values are unscientific in nature. I'm just looking for a way to compare the players to one another, in a manner that's easily digested. You might need to bid more on these guys to land them in an auction; maybe you can get them for less. Season to taste. Adjust to your league.
Players at the same price are considered even. And these prices aren't necessarily meant to be compared to players at other shuffle positions. Each positional shuffle is its own entity.
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Assume a half-point PPR format, a compromise between standard formats and full-fledged PPR.
Remember the golden rule: no one gains or loses value simply because you roster them (or choose not to roster them). Sure, you'll have disagreements, that's why we have a game. Your respectful and thoughtful disagreement is welcome in the comments.
$43 Antonio Brown
$42 Julio Jones
$42 Dez Bryant
$40 Demaryius Thomas
$39 Odell Beckham
$37 A.J. Green
$37 Calvin Johnson
Some pundits are dinging Julio Jones as an injury-prone player, and I think that’s unfair, and misguided. Okay, he busted his foot in 2013 and missed 11 games, that wasn’t fun. Otherwise, he’s played 44 out of 48 games in the NFL, and that rate is acceptable for any non-QB you draft in 2015.
Jones only scored six times despite heavy volume last year, which feels fluky. He had 18 spikes in his first two pro seasons, when he was still figuring out the game.
New OC Kyle Shanahan loves to force-feed his top targets: Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon, and Santana Moss all thrived in his system. And the Falcons might not have much choice, what with Roddy White getting close to a cliff age and no tight end of note. It sounds funny when a receiver comes off a 1,593-yard season, but I don’t think we’ve seen Julio’s best campaign yet. And with a spotty defense and perhaps a questionable running game in Atlanta, I expect Matt Ryan to uncork a ton of pass attempts this fall – many in No. 11’s direction.
You can take Jones at any slot in the first round and I'll just nod and say "I'm really glad you have him."
$35 Randall Cobb
$33 Mike Evans
$32 T.Y. Hilton
$30 Emmanuel Sanders
$30 Alshon Jeffery
$28 DeAndre Hopkins
$28 Brandin Cooks
$24 Jordan Matthews
$23 Keenan Allen
$22 Andre Johnson
$22 Jeremy Maclin
$22 Golden Tate
$21 Julian Edelman
$21 Brandon Marshall
$20 Davante Adams
I've been making the pro-Maclin case everywhere I can: on Twitter, on blog, on various podcasts. Maybe you're tired of hearing it, but at least you know how I feel. I also have a ton of Maclin shares on various teams, putting him near the top of the Wallet list. You can't say I didn't let you know far in advance; the drum beat started in mid-July.
I don't think Dwayne Bowe (and Donnie Avery) received enough blame for the KC receiver bagel last year, and I think Alex Smith and Andy Reid received too much blame. Maclin's obviously far more talented than those other wideouts, and he's flashed in the preseason, in part because Reid is scheming like crazy to get Maclin the ball. Two touchdowns have already gone on the board, but I'm more excited about the diversity of Maclin's touches, the creativity Reid is using with his best target. And keep in mind Maclin and Reid were together in Philadelphia, so they already have a connection and working relationship.
It's too convenient to scream "regression!" and walk out of the room. No, I'm not expecting Maclin to match his 2014 haul, either. But a heavy amount of regression seems baked into his ADP, and I think it's gone too far. You might get Maclin as your third or (egads) fourth wideout this year, but I see a player likely to be a set-and-forget option this fall, a solid WR2. Look closer, look deeper. The Chiefs know what they have here, and they're going to make sure he's used consistently. You might get around 1,000 yards and 7-9 touchdowns, and at a giveaway price.
$19 Sammy Watkins
$18 DeSean Jackson
$17 Amari Cooper
$16 Allen Robinson
$15 Jarvis Landry
$15 Vincent Jackson
$14 Eric Decker
$13 Charles Johnson
$13 Larry Fitzgerald
As much as I love Brown in Arizona this year - T.Y. Hilton 2.0? - I have to give Fitzgerald a tiny edge if I'm allowed to take any receiver here at a static cost. Floyd is the one player I don't trust, wondering how badly he truly wants to be an impact player in this league . . . No one questions Cooper's ability, but how much will the strench in Oakland hold him back? Do you believe in Derek Carr? . . . I had no problem giving Robinson a lofty price, as I expect Blake Bortles will be one of the most improved players in the league this year . . . Decker is one of those boring veterans who should have an easy time outearning what he costs. You can take him much lower than where I've slotted him . . . My Adams price is mostly faith in Rodgers; I didn't like Adams's tape from last year. But he'll need to play, the Packers don't have much choice . . . Johnson has become a little trendy in Minnesota, but I still used a sixth-round pick (74th overall) in the Friends & Family League. The key: he's my fourth receiver. More than any year I can remember, it's critical to be deep at this position.
$12 Roddy White
$12 John Brown
$12 Anquan Boldin
$11 Mike Wallace
$11 Nelson Agholor
$11 Steve Smith
$10 Torrey Smith
$9 Pierre Garcon
$9 Marques Colston
$8 Martavis Bryant
$8 Michael Floyd
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$7 Steve Johnson
$7 Eddie Royal
$7 Devin Funchess
$7 Kendall Wright
$6 Terrance Williams
$6 Brandon LaFell
$6 Brian Quick
$5 Marvin Jones
$5 Markus Wheaton
$5 Devante Parker
$4 Victor Cruz
$4 Phillip Dorsett
$4 Leonard Hankerson
$4 Rueben Randle
Hankerson is one of my favorite late-round guys - we know White has injury concerns and the Falcons don't have great tight ends . . . I try not to go out of my way to meet injury concerns in my August drafts, unless I love the payoff. A bunch of your players will go on to get hurt, anwyay. I'm running far away from Cruz this summer . . . Marvin Jones had 10 touchdowns back in 2013 and Andy Dalton is one of those "so overrated, he's actually underrated" players. He might not be a franchsie quarterback, but he's not *that* bad . . . I expect the Dallas passing game volume to rise significantly, with Murray out of town. No way Dallas ranks 31st in pass attempts this year. Williams, Beasley, even Jason Witten, they're all legitimate sleeper targets for me. And Tony Romo is my favorite middle-round quarterback . . . The Panthers badly need a target and Funchess looks the part in uniform, but he's missed too much critical summer work for me to consider him a go-get player. If the price doesn't like up, I won't be purchasing . . . Wright could be an interesting PPR sleeper if the Titans have capable quarterback play, for once. Marcus Mariota impressed me all preseason. I think he'll be better than Jameis Winston, for both 2015 and long-term.
$3 Brandon Coleman
$3 Kenny Britt
$3 Allen Hurns
$3 Michael Crabtree
$3 Breshad Perriman
$3 Kenny Stills
$3 Doug Baldwin
$2 Marquess Wilson
$2 Donte Moncrief
$2 Philly Brown
$2 Harry Douglas
$2 Cecil Shorts
$2 Cole Beasley
$2 Dorial Green-Beckham
$2 Malcom Floyd
$1 Andre Roberts
$1 Marqise Lee
$1 Jarius Wright
$1 Jaelen Strong
$1 Nate Washington
$1 Albert Wilson
$1 Robert Woods
$1 Jerricho Cotchery
$1 Taylor Gabriel
$1 Reggie Wayne
$1 Jeff Janis
$1 Kamar Aiken
$1 Brian Hartline
$1 Tyler Lockett
$1 Greg Jennings
$1 Andrew Hawkins
$1 Ty Montgomery
$1 Percy Harvin
$1 Cody Latimer
$1 Dwayne Bowe
$0 Stedman Bailey
$0 Mohamed Sanu
$0 Kevin White
A shame the Colts can't move some of their wideout surplus to another team. Moncrief could be a star on the Packers or Panthers . . . I wanted to see Latimer have a big step forward in his second camp, but it sounds like he's been a diappointment again . . . I loved Lee at USC, but apparently he's a step slow for this level, not to mention constantly hurt . . . Jennings has turned in a solid career, but the deep Dolphins don't have to make him a featured target in 2015 . . . Wayne might be a borderline Hall of Famer, but I'd be stunned if he caught more than 50 passes. Alas, his signing tells us the Patriots must be worried about Brandon LaFell.
