Ezekiel Elliott heads rookie class set to make 2016 fantasy impact
The joy of newness is interwoven into the consciousness of all Americans. We love that new car smell, fresh pair of Jordans feel and refreshing swig off a just cracked beer.
It’s so good when it hits the lips.
When it comes to fantasy football, this psychology permeates into the typical owner’s mindset.
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For many, high-profiled, much-hyped rookies are seducing, the sirens of the virtual game. They posted obscene numbers at the college level, were drafted into favorable "good fit" situations and are destined to produce. That’s what eternal optimists, admittedly me included, often believe.
However, the reality is rookies only sporadically deliver on their beaming promises. Since 2009, 33 total players at QB/RB/WR/TE (4.7 players per year) compiled starter-level stats on a points per game basis in standard 12-team leagues. Interestingly, compared to the previous seven-season stretch (2002-2008), the number of first-year impacts, though down slightly across the board (4.2 per year), is up measurably among QBs ('02-'08: 1, '09-'15: 4) and WRs (12, 17).
Why?
With many elements from the college game, whether being terminology or designed plays, now infused at the pro level, the learning curve has shrunk, making it easier for kids to transition. Additionally, the makeup of the game has evolved from run-centric schemes to more pass-happy attacks. Every year from 2010-2015 ranks inside the top-five in pass yards per game per team. In fact, last season's prolific 243.8 ypg bested 2014 by a whopping 7.0 ypg. Also consider the intense pressure NFL coaches and GMs generally face from impatient fan-bases – the fantasy community not excluded – and it's no wonder why green commodities, particularly QBs, have undergone a baptism by fire.
Call it the Veruca Salt Effect. We want it all NOW!
Thanks social media.
Although WRs set the pace, largely because most leagues require three starters, numerous rookie RBs from 2009-2015 also left an indelible mark, 12 to be exact. Last year, Todd Gurley, Karlos Williams, David Johnson and Thomas Rawls earned such a designation. Others, like Jeremy Langford and Matt Jones, were useful in spurts. Not to overlook other positions, Marcus Mariota (QB21), Jameis Winston (QB18), Amari Cooper (WR31), DeVante Parker (WR35), Stefon Diggs (WR45) and Tyler Lockett (WR50) were also often sound contributors.
So, will the 2016 class pay immediate dividends?
The historical record may suggest otherwise, but expectations for anyone not named Ezekiel Elliott should be tempered. This year’s rookie crop, particularly at wide receiver, isn’t the strongest. If a generational wideout eventually emerged, it would be quite the shocker special. Others like QBs Carson Wentz and Paxton Lynch have incredible potential, but it will take time for them to reach peak maturation.
Even though most first-year players won’t consistently light up fantasy scoreboards this fall, a few are still roster worthy. In a game that rewards opportunity, a handful of youngsters are blessed with an advantageous path to snaps, targets and/or touches.
After weeks of poking, prodding and Wonderlicking, destinations are now determined. What newcomers could be cornerstones on fantasy rosters this season? Here are six players poised to make their mark (in order of projected contribution):
Ezekiel Elliott, Dal, RB
When you think of monsters images of fang-bearing vampires, bloodthirsty zombies and ax-wielding psychos are immediately conjured. Soon, Elliott will trigger similar nightmares. The Ohio St. product is about to terrorize the league. He’s a do-it-all, three-down workhorse, a rusher some scouts have called the most complete back to enter the league since Adrian Peterson. Believe it or not, that high praise is appropriate. The 6-foot, 225-pound stallion left Ohio St. after averaging a school-record 6.7 yards per carry in three years. He’s fast (4.47 40-yard dash), brutalizing between the tackles (57.4 YAC% in ’15), deceptively elusive (18.5 missed-tackle rate in ’15), sure-handed as a receiver, durable and an exceptional pass blocker.
Similar to fantasy behemoths before him like Edgerrin James, Marshawn Lynch and Ricky Williams, the youngster is a throwback talent who’s sure to be Dallas' offensive anchor for years to come. There truly are no weaknesses to his game. Though Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris will enter the mix for Jason Garrett's club, Elliott’s impressive skill set should quickly vault him to the top of the depth chart in training camp. Assuming that occurs, he’s a near lock to register some 18-22 touches per game out of the gate. Considering the premiums every-down backs attract, he’s easily worth a late-first round pick in 12-team drafts, standard or PPR. Only David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell rank higher on my RB big board.
Fearless Forecast: 266 carries, 1,173 rushing yards, 47 receptions, 463 receiving yards, 12 total touchdowns
Josh Doctson, Was, WR
For the most part, this year’s WR class is rather unexciting. As discussed above, there are no definitive WR1 prospects available. Doctson, however, has the most potential to exceed the generally lukewarm expectations. Far and away my favorite rookie wideout, the TCU standout is a long, lanky target with an expansive catch radius. He isn’t a blazer (4.50 40-yard) by any means, but his Zach LaVine-like hops (41-inch vertical), shielding ability on slants, versatility and tacky hands (85% catch rate on contested throws) make him a likely WR3 contributor, at a minimum.
The kid is going to win a ton battles on 50/50 balls, particularly inside the red zone. Tilting the scale at just 202 pounds, he should always layer the bacon and his route tree is limited due to TCU’s skeleton "air raid" scheme, but he comps similarly to Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson and Jordan Matthews, receivers fantasy owners have hungered for in recent years. Because of DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon's downsides, he'll instantly entice some 6-8 targets per game. And with his insane hops, it won't take long for him and Jordan Reed to dominate red-zone looks. Suffice it to say, Kirk Cousins is going to love his new toy. Consider him a viable WR3 this season.
Fearless Forecast: 67 receptions, 1,044 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns
Sterling Shepard, NYG, WR
The last Sterling to catch footballs for a living was some dude named Sterling Sharpe. Soon, the rookie of the same name may also leave an indelible mark on the position. On film, Shepard has the look of an energetic hamster. At 5-foot-10, 194 pounds he's on the small side, but his marvelous footwork, 4.48-40 yard speed and elusiveness in space, reminiscent of Brandin Cooks, makes him extremely difficult to contain.
Because of his diminutive frame press coverage could initially be a challenge. Still, he was a highly efficient, reliable weapon for Oklahoma logging considerable time in the slot. He dropped only four balls on 89 catchable passes and notched an 82.0 catch percentage on hitch/stick routes last year per Pro Football Focus. With defenses focused on neutralizing Odell Beckham, Victor Cruz a complete wildcard and Rueben Randle playing elsewhere, he should have plenty of opportunities right away possibly enticing some 7-8 targets per game and many of those against favorable coverage. Behind Doctson, there isn't a first-year WR with more fantasy starter potential.
Fearless Forecast: 64 receptions, 864 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns
Kenneth Dixon, Bal, RB
The second-best RB on my big board, Dixon is an open-field magician who typically makes the first guy miss (No. 3 elusive rating among FBS RBs last year). His exceptional hands, laser vision, patience, quickness around the edge and respectable pass-blocking ability are three-down traits. Some have questioned his toughness between the tackles, but, believe me, the kid has the tenacity of a junkyard dog. His 60.6 yards after contact rate from 2015 offers supportive evidence.
He isn't without warts – he racked 889 total touches in four years at LA Tech and fumbled four times on 197 carries last fall – but his pluses should quickly convince Baltimore coaches he's a top-of-the-totem-pole producer. Given Justin Forsett's advanced age, Buck Allen's mediocrity and Trent Richardson being terrible, Dixon's chances of stealing the show are reasonable. Behind a quality offensive line (No. 14 in run-blocking per Football Outsiders in '15), he could invigorate the fantasy masses if he can ascend up the depth chart in August. If not, he will be an 8-10 touch per game rusher at a minimum.
Fearless Forecast: 181 attempts, 785 rushing yards, 29 receptions, 241 receiving yards, 5 total touchdowns
[Expert preseason Fantasy Football rankings]
Jordan Howard, Chi, RB
Scorching HOT take alert! Scrawl it in cement, Howard will overtake Jeremy Langford at some point this season. Believe it. Admittedly, I drove the bandwagon for another Indiana RB, Tevin Coleman, last year, but unlike his predecessor, Howard is a stronger, interior runner. He routinely bulled through contact (58.7 YAC% in '15) even against stiff Big Ten competition (e.g. 22-174-2 vs. Iowa).
Additionally, the new Bear evades tacklers well (17.8 MT%), halts on-coming rushers and protects the football. Also displaying impressive vision, patience, cutting and pad level, he is a rock solid early-down contributor. His upright running style raises durability concerns and the jury is still out about his pass-catching, but he will most certainly compete for the Bears' starting gig immediately.
Recall Langford, undeniably the most overvalued RB in early drafts (RB15, 31.1 ADP), scored negatively in several secondary measurements including average yards after contact (No. 77 among RBs) and tackles avoided per attempt (No. 80). Despite his stellar performances against San Diego and St. Louis last year, he simply isn't engineered to be an every-down back. It's not a matter of if, but when, for Howard.
Fearless Forecast: 168 attempts, 712 rushing yards, 13 receptions, 94 receiving yards, 5 total touchdowns
Laquon Treadwell, Min, WR
Largely perceived as the top pass-catching option on many draftnik boards, Treadwell is an undeterred, intelligent target with ideal NFL size (6-foot-2, 220-pounds) and route savvy, a player with characteristics some scouts have compared to Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffery and DeAndre Hopkins. A prolific producer at Ole Miss, he hauled in 82 passes (on 122 targets) for 1,146 yards and 11 touchdowns for the Rebels last year. His willingness to do dirty work across the middle on slants (71 catch%) and crosses (75 catch%) and effectiveness on go routes exhibit his versatility.
Because of his pedestrian speed (4.63 40-yard) many have questioned whether he’ll gain adequate separation at the next level, particularly on sideline streaks beyond 20 yards. Though that concern is warranted, he should be an impactful possession/red-zone weapon from the get go, provided he wraps his mitts in double-sided tape. According to Pro Football Focus, Treadwell dropped nine of 91 catchable balls last season, good for the 80th-best catch rate among FBS WRs. In order for him to stay out of the doghouse, lapses in concentration must be few and far between. The Vikings, who chucked it a "whopping" 454 times last year, aren't an ideal employer, but OC Norv Turner will almost surely heavily involve the rookie right away. Tab him as a WR4/WR5 on fantasy draft day.
Fearless Forecast: 67 receptions, 774 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns
OTHER ROOKIES TO ROSTER
Devontae Booker, Den, RB – It's nearly rubber stamped C.J. Anderson will open the season as the Broncos' No. 1, especially after signing a healthy contract this offseason, but if nagging injuries hamper him again, Booker will get a shot to shine. Yes, over Ronnie Hillman. He's a fall-forward, decisive runner with a legitimate three-down skill set, a perfect fit for Denver's one-cut-and-go scheme. Stash him late.
Paul Perkins, NYG, RB – The former Bruin's arrival should mercifully end Andre Williams' reign of putridity. Woohoo! Rashad Jennings will likely line up Week 1 as the starter, but Perkins is clearly the organization's running back of the future. He's a sudden, shifty RB who leaves defenders hugging air. His 30.9 missed tackle rate last year at UCLA was borderline obscene. Pass-blocking and receiving are areas for improvement, but he should record some 10-12 touches per game, if not more, very, very soon. Sleeper.
Jared Goff, LAR, QB – The Rams sold their soul to acquire Goff at No. 1. He'll need to adjust from working out of the shotgun/pistol to under center, but he has the deep ball touch, pocket poise and smarts to occasionally deliver top-15 lines. He's valuable in two-QB and 14-team-plus leagues, but exceeding roughly 3,700 yards and 21-23 touchdowns this fall would be a pipe dream. Without much firepower at WR, Los Angeles is very much Todd Gurley's team.
Corey Coleman, Cle, WR – Please Josh Gordon, quit hanging out with Johnny Manziel. Coleman desperately needs you. With or without the wacky tobacky enthusiast, the Baylor standout should see plentiful targets. He's explosive, acrobatic and ridiculously competitive, a wideout similar in style and substance as Steve Smith. He'll need to expand the route tree to drum up fantasy interest in shallow formats, but without much competition for looks he's a likely 60-800-4 WR in Year 1.
Derrick Henry, Ten, RB – When the Titans selected Henry in the second round, this rather boisterous analyst stared at the television in stone silence. Why on earth would a team, which recently traded for DeMarco Murray, invest in another hammer-type rusher? Perplexing. The Heisman winner is a giant, bulldozing runner with terrific speed (4.54 40-yard) for a player of his size (6-foot-3, 247 pounds). However, his hands are questionable and he's insufficient in pass-blocking. Still, he should wrest away some early-down and goal-line work from Murray, but not much more. For redraft leagues, he's nothing more than a flier.
Michael Thomas, NO, WR – Six straight years of 627 pass attempts. That's what Drew Brees has done. Though Thomas isn't a burner (4.57 40-yard) and is rather unpolished as a route runner, his fly-trap hands, size, strength and after-catch skills are encouraging attributes. Sean Payton hopes is Thomas becomes Marques Colston the sequel, a dependable red-zone/possession threat. If he can absorb the playbook quickly, a final output around 50-675-7 isn't improbable.
Will Fuller, HOU, WR – Fuller can seriously fly. On go routes, he leaves a trail of flames in his wake. However, that's all this one-trick pony does. He's a field-stretcher who was plagued by the dropsies (10 DPs in 2015) while at Notre Dame. In other words, he's Ted Ginn all over again. Blah. Because of the defensive attention DeAndre Hopkins draws, bank on a splashy catch or three from the youngster this season, but he'll be wildly inconsistent. At best, he's a WR5 in 12-teamers.
C.J. Prosise, Sea, RB – Another Golden Domer, Prosise was the "Soft Cell: of South Bend, a one-hit wonder. In his only season as a full-time RB, the converted DB/WR was nothing short of spectacular tallying 6.6 yards per carry, 1,340 combined yards and 12 total touchdowns. He exhibited an undeterred attitude between the tackles, explosiveness off the edge and deceptive power. His pass pro is a work in progress, but he should be a 10 or so touch per game sidekick to Thomas Rawls this year.
Harass Brad on Twitter @YahooNoise.
