QB Primer 2015: Should fantasy owners 'Get Lucky?' Plus sleepers, busts and shocker specials revealed

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FIRING BULLETS – QB QUICK TIPS, TRENDS AND TAKES TO KNOW ENTERING THE SEASON

Since 2009 the bust rate among drafted QB1s (Players selected inside position's top-12 that finished outside the top-15) is 23.6 percent, the lowest of the major positions. 

According to average draft position (ADP) values tracked at Fantasy Football Calculator Eli Manning is the fastest rising QB in early drafts. His value has climbed from 102.7 ADP to 94.6 over the past month.

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Conversely, Cam Newton's perceived worth has fallen off considerably. Over the past 30 days his ADP has ballooned from 64.3 to 71.9. 

In 2014, the biggest QB kings of inconsistency, players who ranked inside the QB top-12 but totaled the most below-average performances (under 16.8 points per game average) were Matt Ryan (9), Ryan Tannehill (9), Ben Roethlisberger (8) and Philip Rivers (8).

Tom Brady's upheld four-game suspension, for now, has driven his ADP to 84.8, the lowest its been in 12 years. His temporary replacement, Jimmy Garoppolo, meanwhile, has been picked in only three percent of Yahoo drafts. 

Below are eight pressing questions about QB nearing draft season.

Andrew Luck, who bested No. 2 QB Aaron Rodgers by a full two points per game a season ago, has driven wedges among fantasy players. Late-round QB devotees giggle at the mere thought of selecting him before Round 3 in 12-team drafts. Cautious drafters, meanwhile, mock anyone who passes on the Colt for a high-risk RB. Take a stand: Is it SMART or SILLY to entertain Luck in Round 1 of traditional scoring (4 points per pass TD) drafts? 

Brad – SMART. Stated this repeatedly since May, Luck will total 50 touchdowns and roughly 4,500 combined yards this year. There is no player with a higher floor. Period. Knowing the risks attached to RBs and some WRs, it's complete clownery to immediately dismiss him in the late-first/early-second rounds. 

Brandon – SILLY. I have Luck No. 12 overall on my Big Board, so I'm not targeting him in Round 1 unless I have the last pick in a 12-teamer. Any earlier in Round 1, I'm looking at the few elite RBs and WRs because I think the bottom drops out on those positions a lot quicker than it does at QB, where guys I really like (Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan) can be had fairly late. And in Yahoo default scoring (counts INTs and Fumbles and a point for every 25 yards passing instead every 20), Aaron Rodgers was 0.6 points per game behind Luck - if I can get him in Round 2 instead of Luck in Round 1, that's a deal I'll make every time.

Andy – SILLY, and almost criminally so. I just explained myself on Tuesday. With all due respect to Luck, he's not the only quarterback in the player pool who finds himself in a ripe fantasy situation. He's great, sure, but he's not alone. Big Ben has a lousy defense and a loaded group of skill players, just like Luck. Aaron Rodgers might be better at throwing footballs than any living person is at doing anything. You can draft go a Brady/Ryan platoon in most Yahoo leagues (or Brady/Eli, or Brady/Palmer) without using a pick in the top six rounds. That's stealing. 

BELIEVE or MAKE BELIEVE: Eli Manning, equipped with quite possibly his deadliest arsenal to date, outpaces big brother Peyton Manning in points per game average. 

Brandon – BELIEVE. I've already made myself clear on the pages of Yahoo Fantasy in regards to my concerns about Peyton Manning. I haven't spent nearly as much ink explaining why I like Eli more than his brother, but you can look at Weeks 7-17 of last year and see that Eli scored more fantasy PPG than his brother, a period of time (65 percent of the season) that coincides with Odell Beckham's emergence in the Giants offense. Is it so hard to imagine that Eli, given his arsenal, can pick up where he left off, while Peyton, looking every bit his 39 years, continues to fade under a more conservative offense and without red zone magnet Julius Thomas?

Andy – BELIEVE. This is thoroughly doable, and Peyton can still have a great year. Eli gets a full year of Odell Beckham (we hope), plus a bunch of cheap-yardage short passes to Shane Vereen. Anything Victor Cruz can offer is a bonus. Eli is coming off a terrific year and primed for better. Peyton is an all-timer, but we've seen his best. 

Scott – MAKE BELIEVE. I'm not going to confuse what's plausible with what's likely. If you want to say Eli's the better value at their relative ADPs, sure, I'm in for that. But Peyton has more overall talent to work with, a much stronger track record, and a history of making everyone look foolish after he's been counted out (at least in some circles). 

Matthew Stafford, Nick Foles, Colin Kaepernick, RGIII, among others, caused nothing but collywobbles for those who invested in their services last year. Who is your BIGGEST BOUNCE BACK CANDIDATE?

Andy – CARSON PALMER for me, if I'm allowed to go off the list. Love his offense, love his weapons, love the pace he was on prior to the injury (4300-29). If I have to choose someone from the bolded question above, it has to be Stafford. If you're the guy who gets to throw to 'Tron, you can't help but have a few useful games. 

Scott – KAEPERNICK, for two simple reasons. One, ding dong, the Harbaugh is dead (well, in Michigan, same difference). At this point in Kaepernick's career, he desperately needed a change of scenery. Second, it's simple algebra - quarterback rushing stats are nectar from the gods. And it was a stone fluke that the athletic, mobile Kaepernick scored just one rushing touchdown on 639 rushing yards last year. Look at the post-merger history with rushing QBs. That's low TD count is highly unlikely to repeat. 

Dalton – STAFFORD. He's always struggled with efficiency (career 7.0 YPA), but before last season, he averaged 4,885 passing yards and 32 total touchdowns over the previous three years. He's just 27 years old, Calvin Johnson played injured most of last season, and he also has Golden Tate and Eric Ebron developing in year two at tight end, so the weapons are there. 

Ben Roethlisberger confidently predicted his Steelers will average 30 or more points this year, a boastful declaration that perked up the ears of the fantasy community. Over/under 32.5 passing touchdowns for Big Ben.

Scott – UNDER, not that I don't like Roethlisberger this year. Thirty seemed like the right number to me. I do think Pittsburgh's defense is going to be a mess, force a lot of shootouts. 

Dalton – UNDER. I really like Roethlisberger this season, but he's never reached this mark in his 11-year career, and he'd almost certainly have to stay healthy for all 16 games. He's had durability issues in the past, but I will acknowledge there's upside for him to finish as a top-three fantasy QB. But under is the safest bet by far here.

Liz – Oh, this a good one. I’m very tempted to say over, and do believe Roethlisberger could put up monster numbers. However in that division and with a brutal schedule, I’ll have to stick with the  UNDER. Big Ben could easily pass for another 4,000+ yards, but too many things have to go right for him to best his TD stats from 2014. 

What overlooked QB is the virtual game’s most undervalued?

Dalton – COLIN KAEPERNICK. He's the No. 21 QB being drafted in Yahoo leagues right now, which is pretty crazy, considering that's behind Derek Carr, who got 5.5 YPA last year and Nick Foles who's now in St. Louis. Kaepernick rushed for the second-most yards among QBs last year and threw for one fewer TD than the player who had more (Russell Wilson). Kap is in a more favorable environment this season. 

Liz – ANDY DALTON. He may not be able to win a playoff game, but Dalton can put up fantasy stats. Let’s take a moment to remember that he was the QB5 in 2013. With A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, and Tyler Eifert all back to health as well as pass-catching back Giovani Bernard mixing in on third downs, The Red Rifle could do some damage. 

Brad – CARSON PALMER. Before getting cut down after six starts last year, Palmer was on pace for nearly 4,000 yards and 30 TDs. Surrounded by quality weapons and in what is expected to be a fast-paced no-huddle offense, he should flirt with QB1 status in 12-team formats.  

Conversely, what gunslinger is the most overvalued?

Dalton – DREW BREES. He'll still be fine, but he's 36 years old, has seen his TD pass production drop in three straight seasons and lost Jimmy Graham during the offseason. Moreover, his 7.5 YPA last year was his second-lowest since 2007. Brees' current 36.4 ADP seems way too high in a league that's so deep with QB options.

Brad– MATTHEW STAFFORD. Retooled mechanics. Friendlier offense. Better weapons. I've been fooled by these descriptions of Stafford in the recent past. Never again. Megatron is healthy and the addition of versatile rookie RB Ameer Abdullah is a boost, but despite heavy annual workloads (656.6 pass attempts per season since 2011), he consistently underachieves (QB15 in '14). No matter the situation, it's hard to count on him as a QB1.

Brandon – PEYTON MANNING. He was 14th among QBs in fantasy PPG over his final eight games of '14. He's 39 years old, coming off a season in which he tanked down the stretch (a slump, it should be noted, that started before the quad injury that most like to point to as the culprit), playing now in a more run-heavy system. If you want to take him at his current Yahoo ADP (35.2 overall), you certainly won't experience any interference from me.

[Fantasy Draft Guide: Safest Bets Busts Sleepers | Breakout Candidates Top Rookies]

Gaze into the crystal ball, what rookie passer packs the most fantasy punch in 2015: Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota? 

Brad – WINSTON. Off the field he's been a moron, but the same can't be said on it. He's greatly impressed the Bucs coaching staff with his huddle command, leadership and strong arm. He'll be up and down, but with Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins as targets, it's hard not seeing him exceed expectations. Something in range of 4,000 yards and 23-26 TDs are attainable. 

Brandon – WINSTON. His weapons are massive. Winston has the arm strength and accuracy to fully take advantage. For Mariota to top him, in what I consider to be one of the worst offenses in the league, he'll have to run, and run, and run ... That said, I'd probably lean Mariota for a dynasty league.

Andy – MARIOTA, barely. I flip-flop on this. His rare running ability gives him an edge, though I prefer Winston's receiving corps and schedule. Historically, it's rare for any rookie QB to make a huge statistical splash, though many of the notable exceptions have happened recently. Best to think of these guys as bye-week options, not draft-worthy QBs in standard leagues. 

Play the Powerball. What late-round lottery ticket (120-plus ADP) could have deep-leaguers rolling in greenbacks come year’s end?

Andy – Again, I gotta go CARSON PALMER. The knee isn't a concern these days, and his offense should hum with him at the controls. He had a huge season underway last year, before it all came crashing down. If John Brown makes the second-year leap I'm expecting, this team is going to be so much fun. 

Dalton – COLIN KAEPERNICK. See above. Moreover, the 49ers' defense took a major step back during the offseason, so the team will be playing catch up a lot. Torrey Smith is the first deep threat Kap has ever had, and the new coaching staff is going to toil with more read-options than ever. 

Brandon – SAM BRADFORD. Philly has finished top 10 (9th and 3rd) in QB fantasy scoring over the past two years of Chip Kelly's reign. You're telling me that Bradford can't produce on a level with Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez (with a sprinkling of Michael Vick and Matt Barkley)? You can't count on Bradford's health, but you can count on the Eagles running a break-neck paced offense. If Bradford does stay healthy (this a lottery ticket, remember), there's actually top 12 potential for the former No. 1 overall pick.

Brad – COLIN KAEPERNICK. From a passing perspective, he barely registered a pulse last year, but because of his scoring duality, alleged mechanical improvements and SF's yielding D, he's an awfully intriguing late-round pick. It's not out of the realm of possibility he tallies 4,200 total yards and 20-23 combined TDs. 

Scott – I would have said Kaepernick but he's already on the board twice, plus you heard my spin on him above. Let me say a nice word about ANDY DALTON, because most people won't. He threw 60 touchdown passes from 2012-13, and was the No. 5 player at the position two years back. Then last year everything possible went wrong around him, and his stats collapsed. I recognize the Bengals are a frustrating real-life team, with regular flameouts in the playoffs. I realize Dalton is unlikely to ever be a star, and often his plays succeed because of the receivers, not him. Nonetheless, I see a ton of talent around him (everyone likes Green, Eifert and Jones, right?), and I'll give him plenty of consideration in two-QB and Super Flex leagues. There's a tremendous profit opportunity here.

Liz – CARSON PALMER. Reports out of training camp state that Palmer’s arm is stronger and his knee isn’t an issue. If he can stay healthy, which is doable behind an improved offensive line, Palmer could put up low-end QB1 numbers, passing for just under 4,000 yards and 27 TDs. 

Want to bull rush Brad? Follow him on Twitter @YahooNoise