Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders for Week 4.
Mikel Leshoure, off a monster NFL debut, total yards versus Minnesota 99.5
Dalton — UNDER. I'm buying Leshoure in general, but let's see how he reacts coming off 30 touches during his NFL debut. The Vikings have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.
Scott — UNDER, for two reasons. One, I have much respect for Minnesota's run-stopping personnel (parceling out 3.4 YPC). Two, I'm not convinced the Lions win this game or control this game.
Brad — UNDER. Words cannot express the mantastic feelings I house for the ex-Illini. No question, he's a stud in-the-making. But the Vikings held MJD, Donald Brown and Frank Gore to a combined 3.9 yards per carry. That in mind, Mikel tallies roughly 85 total yards on 20 touches.
Aaron Rodgers passing yards versus winless New Orleans 349.5
Brad — OVER. After last week's screwing in Seattle, A-Rod is going to make the Saints look like a junior college team comprised of blind tortoises. Hard to fathom the hell he is going to unleash. FF: 374,211 yards, 10 touchdowns.
Brandon — UNDER Rodgers is going to dismantle New Orleans with such angry precision that he won't have to reach this number. This could be a one of those kind of performances where he throws for four touchdowns but doesn't break 300 yards, like Matt Schaub last week.
Andy — OVER, by approximately 150 yards. He'll destroy this number.
Fred Jackson, in lineup return, total yards versus New England 94.5
Brandon — OVER. Buffalo backs have topped this number on a regular basis under Chan Gailey. With his excellent run/catch versatility, F-Jax should reach above this number against the Pats, a team he hung 161 yfs against in his lone meeting last year.
Andy — UNDER. The Buffalo backfield is hardly settled right now. Plus New England's defensive front can play a little.
Dalton — UNDER. There's just no telling how close to 100 percent Jackson will be, and there's even a chance C.J. Spiller suits up as well. Plus New England has been stingy against the run this season.
Cam Newton, traveling to Atlanta, final Week 4 QB rank 7.5 (In other words, will he finish inside QB top-7 this week?)
Andy — UNDER. But not by much. He's at No. 7 on my board now, could be No. 8 tomorrow. It's close. He's still the team's best goal line option, let's remember.
Dalton — UNDER. Atlanta has been extremely tough against the pass this year, but I expect Newton to bounce back this week. He's thrown just two TDs on the season but quietly has a 9.6 YPA mark. This could turn into a shootout.
Scott — Newton goes UNDER that, easily. Big bounce-back coming. We tend to overrate what we see in stand-alone games, and the Panthers get extra prep time to iron out the creases. A Carolina upset would not surprise me. For all of the Atlanta sunshine, they did draw three AFC West opponents at favorable times.
Breakout bound WR, pick one: Marques Colston, Kenny Britt or DeSean Jackson
Scott — The Fred G. Sanford bit is getting tired with COLSTON (foot problems are evil), but volume is his friend in this matchup - Green Bay is headed for 30-plus, easily, and the Saints will need to keep chucking it to keep up.
Brad — COLSTON. Though on my 'Lames' list this week, he has the best odds of racking quality numbers in garbage time. Practiced in full Wednesday for the first time in weeks.
Brandon — COLSTON. I'm not particularly fond of any of them, but the Packers/Saints game has the makings of a big-time shootout, so I'll chase the points with Colston.
Michael Turner rushing yards against Carolina 84.5
Brad — OVER. Imagine this game gets very messy early for Carolina, which will lead to plenty of late-game plods for the Model T. Week 3 Turner makes a guest appearance, and he sails over this number with relative ease.
Brandon — OVER. Not overly impressed with his garbage time-infused production last week, but the same setup is likely to occur again this week, where Turner will play second half milkman. And Carolina is just bad against the run. And Turner has owned them as a Falcon.
Andy — UNDER. It's not about the yards with Turner, but the touchdowns. He could top this, sure, but it's gonna take 15-20 carries.
Michael Crabtree receptions versus Revis-less Jets 6.5
Brandon — OVER. He's basically averaging right at this number, and I think he has a good chance of topping it with Revis out.
Andy — OVER, though not by much. Put me down for 11 targets, 7 catches, 70 yards, no scores. That's kind of his signature line.
Scott — UNDER on the Crabman. He's not that type of volume-gobbling wideout yet. And Antonio Cromartie is no slouch on the Revis-less corner.
Andy — PUSH. He will receive exactly 12.5 touches. The half-touch will be a fumbled hand-off, I'm fairly sure. (If you seriously force me to choose, I'll go UNDER. Very close. I wouldn't want to have to start Brown).
Scott — Push this one OVER. Brown's body type and angry running style make him a better fit for short-yardage and goal-line work. And I'm not assuming Bradshaw makes a smooth, painless return.
Dalton — UNDER. Right around a dozen touches seem about right. Brown may very well be the superior option right now, and it would make sense for the Giants to run the ball a lot Sunday night facing possibly the league's best secondary. But with Bradshaw back, I'm going slightly under.
Miles Austin receiving yards versus Tim Jennings and Da Bears 74.5
Scott — UNDER. Even if Miles finds some running room, how much time will Tony Romo have in the pocket? That Dallas offense line is a hot mess, podner.
Dalton — OVER. Dez Bryant continues to disappoint while Jason Witten has been a disaster this year. The Cowboys offensive line is built to pass more than run block, and Austin is further removed from his hamstring woes. He gets 80+ receiving yards Monday night.
Brad — UNDER. Jennings currently checks in at No. 1 in pass coverage according to Pro Football Focus. He's surrendered a catch rate of just 33.3-percent. Combine that with aggressive Bears pass rush and Dallas' protection problems, and he finishes in range of 50-60 yards.
TE tussle, pick one: Dennis Pitta, Kyle Rudolph, Owen Daniels
Brad — DANIELS. Oversized targets have averaged 19.8 points per week against the Titans. Daniels, the seventh-most targeted TE in the game, has strong odds of a 5-60-1 output.
Brandon — RUDOLPH. Rudolph had a great summer and it's carried over, as he's the No. 6 fantasy TE. His QB is accurate in the mid-range game, and there's a Purple Jesus and Percy Harvin to keep the focus off of him. Also, the Lions have allowed 70-plus yards and a combined 3 TDs to Vernon Davis and Jared Cook the past two weeks.
Andy — RUDOLPH. The Vikes are gonna have to chuck it most of the day. I'd give Kyle the best shot at a score from this group).
Scott — If RUDOLPH needs a kidney, I'll be at the airport. I'm dreaming about 10-plus scores by the end of the year, and Detroit's seam coverage is exploitable.
Dalton — PITTA. Rudolph is also a strong start against a Lions defense that has been shredded by tight ends this season, but it's hard to ignore all the targets going Pitta's way.
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