Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders for Week 11.
Marcel Reece total yards against the NFC's worst run defense, New Orleans, 109.5
Dalton — OVER. Reece totaled 104 yards last week at Baltimore in a blowout loss. He's now at home against probably the worst defense in the league and is Oakland's clear workhorse. And even if the Raiders are playing mostly from behind, that might be a good thing with his activity as a receiver. Reece is a top-12 fantasy RB this week in my book.
Brandon — UNDER. I love Reece a lot this week, but it's mostly because I have him in a few leagues and they are all PPR leagues (which really should be the "standard"). I just think the yardage total is a little rich. I'd probably go over at 99.5, though.
Scott — A clear OVER from me. The Raiders love to throw to their backs (the young back has been terrific in that area all year) and Reece was surprisingly handy as a runner last week, too. Taiwan Jones isn't in the way at all. And the Saints probably won't be, either.
Brandon — BUSH. I'm not overly confident in my choice, but I'll take the upside play here. Bush still has the yards from scrimmage upper hand, and it's hard not to think about Bush's last trip to Buffalo (Week 15 of last year), when he ran for 203 yards and a TD.
Scott — I'll stubbornly stick with BUSH. Even with a couple of respectable showings in limited action, Thomas still manages a paltry 3.4 YPC on the year. When push comes to shove, I'm expecting Miami to lean on its best players.
Brad — THOMAS. He's out-snapped Bush 107-66 over the past three weeks and is quickly gaining the confidence of the coaching staff. Bush's nasty case of fumblitis is doing him no favors. A Thomas breakout looms.
In his starting debut, Nick Foles passing yards versus Washington 249.5
Scott — Easy OVER here. Burn last week's tape. Foles didn't have first-team reps under his belt yet, and the complete preparation week. Now he'll enjoy those perks, and Washington's secondary has been a sieve all season.
Brad — OVER. Only two quarterbacks have failed to surpass this number against the 'Skins this year. The rookie won't be the third. His quick release should combat Philly's terrible pass protection. Would be no surprise if he finished inside the position's top-10 in Week 11.
Andy — OVER. He will throw for 258 yards, with another 35 in PI flags. I have had a vision.
C.J. Spiller, all alone in the catbird seat with Fred Jackson sidelined, total yards against Miami 129.5
Brad — OVER. Chris Johnson is the only running back to roll up 130-plus on the 'Fins this season, but Spiller is a special talent who will be worked like a rented mule. The soon-to-be sensation on South Beach, shakes and bakes his way to 150 total yards and a TD.
Andy — OVER. By maybe 50.
Dalton — OVER. I have Spiller as a top-three fantasy player right now, and that has more to do with yardage than TD potential. Miami has a solid run D, but Spiller is ridiculously talented and will be unleashed in primetime Thursday night. I might have went over even if you set this at 149.5 yards. He's averaged 111.3 yards from scrimmage as a part time player over the past four games.
Owen Daniels, matched against a Jacksonville defense that has NOT allowed a TD to a TE this year, .5 TDs
Andy — UNDER. But not because I think this is a meaningful stat. If the Jags are primarily focused on taking away Daniels when facing Houston, they're doing football wrong. Then again, they are 1-8. Daniels is recovering from injury, and the Texans should run all day.
Dalton — UNDER. Daniels is recovering from an injury that prevented him from playing last week, and as the biggest favorites of the NFL season so far Sunday, Houston shouldn't be throwing the ball too much.
Brandon — UNDER. I'm not sure Houston will even bother with the pass all that much. It is the most run-heavy team in the league and run defense is a major issue for the Jags. Daniels could get a red zone look or two because Houston will likely live in that zone on Sunday, but Daniels isn't all that healthy and the safe bet, I believe, is the under.
Carson Palmer, hosting the always friendly Saints, final Week 11 fantasy rank 8.5 (In other words will he finish inside the QB top-8?)
Brandon — OVER. I have him ranked No. 10 this week, so I think he'll be very close
Scott — UNDER, as we play the volume card yet again. Pinball scoring on both sides. And the Raiders quietly have assembled a strong receiving crew: Moore, DHB, Myers, Reece, these are fun guys to chuck it to.
Brad — UNDER. Over the past two weeks, the grossly underrated vet has finished No. 1 and No. 6 among QBs in total points. Bank on him extending the top-8 streak. Signal Callers are averaging a re-donk 27.4 fantasy points per game against New Orleans this season.
Danny Amendola, who hauled in 11 receptions last week in San Francisco, total catches against Antonio Cromartie and the Jets 7.5.
Dalton — OVER. I'm all in with Amendola. And I'm saying this as someone who completely missed the boat on him before the season. The Jets have allowed the second-fewest receptions to WRs this year, but I'd be surprised if Amendola doesn't get at least eight catches Sunday.
Brandon — UNDER. Eight catches is a lot, even for someone as integral to the passing offense as Amendola is to the Rams. He's only had five 8-catch games in his 37-game career. And no WR has topped this number against the Jets this year. I'll say Amendoal nets 6-7 catches, falling just short.
Scott — Look for Amendola to slither OVER the number. With all due respect to cover ace Antonio Cromartie, he's generally not asked to cover change-of-direction types in the slot. Amendola can beat the other chaps here, and he'll be Bradford's primary read again.
What name-brand receiver will be notch POORER numbers with their starting QBs sidelined: Mike Wallace or Brandon Marshall?
Scott — WALLACE is the fear factor on this one. I'm surprised everyone forgets how competent Jason Campbell looked with Oakland last year before the injury. He's at least theoretically capable of playing respectfully. Byron Leftwich's windup starts on Tuesday and finishes on Thursday. Pittsburgh will try to win this game 12-10 if at all possible.
Brad — WALLACE. Granted the weather conditions were far from ideal, but Byron Leftwich looked lost against Kansas City. This week against Ed Reed and company, he may fall completely off the map. Even with Big Ben under center, Wallace is prone to vanishing.
Andy — MARSHALL. And it could get ugly. Hope you enjoy the check-down clinic on Monday.
Jeremy Maclin, who was targeted eight times by Foles, receiving yards versus Washington 74.5
Brad — OVER. Because of Philly's offensive line issues and Foles' traditional style, the rookie should again lean on Jeremy Maclin underneath. Another 90-plus yards seems like a foregone conclusion given the soft opponent, circumstances.
Andy — OVER. It seems silly to anoint any player as a Foles favorite off of a partial game, however. Let's not play the extrapolation game. Foles is gonna try his best to simply run the game-plan, whatever it may be.
Dalton — OVER. But I'm reluctant. Maclin is seemingly always banged up and has quickly become overrated (and I say this as someone who has him in multiple leagues). However, the Redskins have given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs, and Maclin may benefit from the QB change.
Pick a Rookie: Robert Griffin III (vs. Phi) or Andrew Luck (at NE).
Andy — LUCK. Better weapons, better match-up. We all like RG3, but his receivers are not tolerable.
Dalton — GRIFFIN. Great question though, as it's a coin flip in my eyes. Luck is going to be throwing a ton in his game. Both have highly favorable matchups. But I'll give the slight nod to RG3, with homefield as the tiebreaker. But really, this is one of those "go with your gut" type debates.
Brandon — RGIII. These guys are back-to-back on my QB rankings at No. 7 and No. 8. It's RGIII's 60 yards per game on the ground that will almost always have me leaning his way in a close call like this.
What bench back will score in bunches in Week 11: Felix Jones (vs. Cle), LaRod Stephens-Howling (at Atl) or Chris Ivory (vs. Oak)
Brandon — JONES. As much as I hate to put my money down on Jones, he has strung together a couple solid back-to-back fantasy efforts, and Cleveland has allowed more than 80 yards from scrimmage to a RB in every game it has played this season.
Scott — The cat meows for JONES. Ivory has too much gridlock to battle through, and the next well-blocked play Arizona runs will be the first for 2012.
Brad — FELIX. I signed a pact with myself to never again trust Jones and his weasel ways. But sans DeMarco Murray and gifted a superb matchup, he is the most trustworthy rusher in the trio. Cleveland has surrendered 4.5 yards per carry to RBs this year.
Andy — NONE. Seriously, I don't see a binge day from any of these three. I suppose I like Felix the best.
Dalton — JONES. Unlike the QB question, this one wasn't all that close for me at all (which naturally means I'll probably be totally wrong). Jones is a top-15 fantasy RB in my view this week, while the other two aren't even close.
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