Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders for Week 10.
Scott —STAFFORD gets the check mark. So long as you work around Antoine Winfield, you can make hay on the Vikings secondary — it's the ninth-friendliest in all of fantasy. The Lions passing game might actually be better off now that everything isn't so Calvin-centric. As much as I love Luck, the Thursday night affair has trap game written all over it.
Brad — LUCK. As stated on 'The Fantasy Freak Show' and Chris Liss' Sirius/XM radio program, my man-love for the rookie is growing exponentially each week. From this point forward it would be no stretch if he outpaced Robert Griffin III and Tom Brady. Considering his success against the Jags earlier this year (320-2-1-50), marvelous skill set and Indy's suspect D, he should be a slam dunk for 25-plus fantasy points this week, outpacing the field above.
Andy — BIG BEN. The only real risk is that Pittsburgh may run out to a big early lead. I've got all these guys in my top-10, though, so I really don't see a bad option here.
Brandon — LUCK has been better than the others here on a fantasy per game basis, and when last he faced Jacksonville (Week 3), he threw for 313 yards and 2 TDs, and added 50 rushing yards. Sign me up for the rookie.
Dalton — NEWTON. This is a really tough call, but I think the Broncos should be able to put up points offensively, resulting in something of a shootout. At some point Newton's YPA should result in more touchdowns.
Will Marcel Reece have more CARRIES or RECEPTIONS this week at Baltimore?
Scott — RECEPTIONS, and it might not be close. We're talking about a converted wideout who had five carries for his entire collegiate career. It's also a fun time to roll with Carson Palmer in fake football; volume is a beautiful thing. I could see the Raiders junking the running game around halftime.
Brad — RECEPTIONS. Because of the lack of trust in Taiwan Jones, it would be no surprise if Greg Knapp leans heavily on Carson Palmer's arm this week, which would benefit the tender-handed Reece. The matchup nightmare should ravage a Ravens defense belittled by injuries, but almost exclusively through the air. Another 7-8 receptions are definitely in the cards.
Andy — RECEPTIONS. He's a converted receiver; this is his role. He'll almost certainly be in a job-share with Taiwan Jones.
Andre Johnson receiving yards against Peanut "Punchout" Tillman and the Bears 74.5
Brad — UNDER. Johnson has played great over the past three weeks catching at least three balls in each game during that stretch and the Bears haven't locked down WR1s particularly well, but I fully expect Arian Foster and Owen Daniels to be the centerpieces of Gary Kubiak's game-plan. Why even throw Tillman's way?
Andy — UNDER. This is not your father's Andre Johnson. He's not the uncontrollable beast he used to be.
Brandon — OVER. He might end up fumbling, because Peanut is a ridiculous fumble-inducing menace, but I think the Texans will have to throw a bit in this one. And the Bears have allowed a WR to top this number six times.
Thursday Throwdown: Vick Ballard or Rashad Jennings?
Andy — JENNINGS. Let's hope your week doesn't come down to this.
Brandon — JENNINGS. I expect it to be close, and I don't think you'll be disappointed Thursday if you are an owner of either player, but I think Jennings' work in the passing game will be what separates him from Ballard in the end.
Dalton — JENNINGS. Both have good matchups, but Jennings is at home and has been targeted a lot in the passing game, even if his YPC has been dreadful.
Tony Romo, who is on pace for a whopping 636 attempts, passing yards at Philadelphia 274.5
Brandon — OVER. He's averaging 299 passing yards per game, and in terms of passing yards allowed per game, Philly is right in the middle.I expect Romo will have to take a high-volume approach in this one, too, and he should end up pushing his average.
Dalton — UNDER. The Eagles' offensive line is a complete mess, so I don't expect Philly to put up a ton of points against an underrated Cowboys defense. As a result, Romo doesn't throw as much usual, making him fall just short of this mark.
Scott — UNDER is the call, but it's not a knock on Romo. One of his teammates will let him down; when in doubt, bet on Dez Bryant to be the guilty party.
Fresh off a TD hat-trick, Mikel Leshoure total standard league fantasy points at Minnesota 13.5
Andy — UNDER. I'm just trying a reverse-jinx here, because I need a decent week from this dude.
Brandon — UNDER. He hasn't rushed for more than 70 yards since Week 3, and he was good for less than half this number when these two teams faced in Week 4.
Dalton — UNDER. LeShoure has topped 70 rushing yards just once this season and faces a better than average run defense in Minnesota. I'm fading last week's big game.
Sans Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders receiving yards versus the terrible Chiefs 59.5
Dalton — UNDER. Sanders isn't a bad flex play this week, but he's still the third option in the passing game, and Pittsburgh should run it a ton playing mostly with the lead.
Scott — I'm going OVER, figuring that Brandon Flowers will see more time on the dynamic Mike Wallace. It only takes one or two medium or deep connections to make it happen, and Sanders has always been a player deserving of a meatier role (he's snagged 65 percent of his targets this year).
Brad — UNDER. Sanders should see a significant uptick in targets with Brown out and Mike Wallace drawing away attention, but he's only averaged 45.5 yards per game over four career starts. He'll contribute useful fantasy numbers overall, but expect him to fall just short of this number.
The suddenly resurgent Chris Johnson total yards at Miami 99.5
Scott— UNDER. The long-run bailout fairy came last week, but that's not the sort of thing I can bet on repeating. Miami hands out 3.6 yards per carry on the ground. Buena suerte, CJ401K.
Brad — UNDER. Unable to penetrate a styrofoam wall earlier this year, Johnson has regained his mojo, and then some. He's eclipsed the century mark in total yardage in four consecutive games. However, the Dolphins are no joke against the run. Of all people, only Shonn Greene surpassed the above number against the 'Fins this year. CJ2Lame crashes back to earth.
Andy — OVER. But I say this with minimal confidence, enthusiasm.
Which slumping back will post a better fantasy line: Ryan Mathews (at TB), Jamaal Charles (at Pit) or Ahmad Bradshaw (at Cin)?
Brad — BRADSHAW. Goal-line gremlin, Andre Brown, is a pest, but, matchup-wise, Bradshaw is in better shape compared to Mathews and JC. Yes, the Bengals bottled up Willis McGahee last week, but they've surrendered the 10th-most fantasy points to RBs on the year.
Andy — BRADSHAW. Cincinnati's defense is the friendliest match-up he's seen in a month, and we really don't have workload concerns. (Health, yes. Carries, no).
Brandon — BRADSHAW. I have all these guys outside RB1 range this week, but Bradshaw easily has the best matchup as Cincy allows 11th-most fantasy PPG to RBs. And Mathews and Charles are dealing with maddening backfield rotations right now.
Vernon Davis, well-rested from the bye, receiving yards versus St. Louis 49.5
Brandon — UNDER. He's been under this number in three straight, and St. Louis has only allowed two TEs over this number all season. But really, this is about a zero-confidence status in regards to Vernon Davis and his usage within the 49ers offense.
Dalton — OVER. San Francisco won't likely be throwing a lot, but after being marginalized in the offense the past few games, I expect Davis' targets to increase coming off the bye.
Scott — OVER, mostly because the Rams are vulnerable down the seam against tight ends (they're the eighth-most charitable unit against that position). And Jim Harbaugh knows he needs to feed the beast here, keep one of his primary players motivated.
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