Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're woefully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders.
Adrian Peterson total carries 249.5
Brad — UNDER. Based on his freakishly fast recovery, Peterson could probably rebound from the pneumonic plague in short order. His healing powers are divine. But expect Leslie Frazier to ease him back in, no matter how swimmingly he performs down the summer stretch. And Minny's defense will do him no favors.
Scott — OVER. I still believe in Peterson, even if I have limited logic to back it up. A once-a-generation freak.
Dalton — UNDER. This number seems about right. Only a dozen backs had 250+ carries last season, and he's just eight months removed from serious knee surgery. Even if he doesn't suffer a setback, you'd have to think Peterson's touches will be limited early on.
Andy — Brad didn't originally assign this question to me, but I'm interjecting anyway. In this case, IT. DOES. NOT. MATTER. You draft Peterson for the chance that he'll be at his best at the end of the year, in the fantasy playoffs. If you take him, just prioritize depth at RB. This draft stuff ain't surgery.
Maurice Jones-Drew games missed 2.5
Andy — OVER, but that doesn't mean he'll get 20-plus carries early in the year. I do think this gets resolved, though. Can't see any obvious reason the Jags would deal him, unless it's a Herschel-like offer.
Brad — OVER. MoJo recently expressed optimism about a resolution, but the light at the end of the tunnel has yet to appear. His stubbornness, and Khan's, prevail in this one. Even if he does cave by Week 1, his high odometer reading enhances injury risk.
Scott — UNDER. He'll hear the biological clock ticking. MJD returns before Week 3, and likely sooner.
Matt Ryan passing touchdowns 30.5
Brad — UNDER. His stock is soaring. Everyone seems convinced a 35-40 TD season is near. But remember ATL threw the fourth-most times last year. And Ryan was very efficient (29:12 TD:INT split). He's not Aaron Rodgers people. Expect modest, not monster, gains.
Scott — UNDER. Atlanta's got strong weapons, but the depth isn't a match for Green Bay, New England, or last year's Saints. In other words, Falcons might be slightly overrated. I need to see it first. Ryan just misses 30.
Brandon — OVER. He had 29 last season, but he was blazing a serious trail in the second half of the season (20 TDs to 4 INTs in final 9 games). With a year under Julio Jones' belt, Ryan is easily poised to break the 30-TD barrier.
Andrew Luck passing yards 3,799.5
Scott — The bad defense helps, and Bruce Arians calling the shots, but I still have to go slightly UNDER.
Brandon — OVER. It's actually a pretty big number for a rookie, and only 11 QBs topped this mark last season. But the Colts will throw a lot by necessity, and Luck certainly has looked the part of a rare gem in preseason.
Dalton — OVER. Luck is probably the best prospect since Peyton Manning, and he's done nothing to disprove that in the preseason. The Colts should have to fling it a lot while hampered by a bad defense, and Luck is the real deal.
Antonio Gates final per game points average in standard formats 9.9
Dalton — OVER. All reports this summer have been overwhelmingly positive in regards to Gates' health, as he claims his feet feel better than they have in years. I'm buying. With Vincent Jackson gone and question marks in the backfield, Gates should see a ton of targets. The AFC West should feature a bunch of shootouts too.
Andy — OVER. He's done it four times in his career, including two of the last three years, while playing on peg-legs. This offseason seems to have treated him well.
Brad — OVER. Without question, the Bolt is the best TE value in Fantasyland. His bunions are no longer barking. And with Vincent Brown out of the equation for at least the next eight weeks, he should be the object of Philip Rivers' affection. Double-down on double-digits.
Brandon Lloyd receptions 70.5
Brandon — UNDER. Lots of mouths to feed in New England. I'm not sure he can quite reach this number with all the other weapons around him, but I think he'll be close, and many will be high-quality catches. Much respect, Gumby.
Dalton — OVER. Lloyd could easily score double-digit touchdowns while still finishing under this number, as he projects to be more of a big play/red-zone threat than a big volume guy. Still, even with plenty of mouths to feed, this passing attack will be formidable.
Andy — I'll take the UNDER, but not by a lot. And anyway, it's not about catches with this player. He gets no special PPR bump. He's a yards-per-catch specialist, a guy who should find the end zone.
Fred Jackson total touches 264.5
Andy — OVER. Not by a lot, but I think he'll get there in a healthy season. This doesn't mean that CJ Spiller can't still help you, in a flex sort of way.
Scott — I think he's one of the most underrated backs on the board right now. Love the Chan Gailey offense, too. OVER, and go get him.
Brad — OVER. Once overvalued, he's now undervalued. Spiller has done everything in his power this preseason to tilt the timeshare to Jackson's side. Laugh all the way to the bank in Round 3 (24.2 ADP, RB14).
Peyton Hillis total touchdowns 9.5
Scott — Brian Daboll will feed him plenty, and Hillis goes OVER. Nice pick, Behrens.
Brandon — OVER. He'll be the goal line guy in a run-heavy offense, and one that is capable of being decent if the other elements can stay healthy (Cassel, Charles, Moeaki) and out of the doghouse (Bowe, Baldwin). I'll go with 10, on the nose, for Hillis.
Dalton — UNDER. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Hillis surpassed this number, but it's tough to project any back with double-digit touchdowns, let alone one who's likely to finish with the second most touches on his own team.
DeSean Jackson receiving yards 1,049.5
Brandon — UNDER. I put D-Jax somewhere between 950-1050, but he can elevate his game with the deep ball, reverses and the occasional ridiculous punt return TD, so it's not an indictment here that I don't think he'll quite reach this peak.
Dalton — OVER. He beat this number both in 2009 and 2010 before last year's disaster, although even then he was on pace to finish with 1,025 yards had he not missed a game. Jackson is seemingly refocused now after having his contract situation taken care of.
Andy — OVER. Possibly way over. He's topped 900 receiving yards every year of his career, even when he disappointed everyone.
Mike Wallace final fantasy rank among WRs 19.5 (In other words, will he finish inside or outside the WR top-20?)
Dalton — UNDER. Tough one. There's legitimate concern how Wallace will perform coming off a holdout and joining an entirely new offense, but at the same time I'm not overly worried about his drop off over last year's second half. I'll say he finishes inside the top-20, but just barely.
Andy — UNDER, by which I mean he'll rank inside the top-20. Wallace is, by far, the Steelers most dangerous offensive weapon. Brown is good; Wallace is exceptional.
Brad — OVER. Don't underestimate the impact of Wallace's long layoff. Unless he possesses a MENSA mind, it will take time for him to fully grasp Todd Haley's offense. Brown is the more complete and trustworthy Steelers receiver.
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