Over/Under: Assessing the ailing Andrew McCutchen

Pirates elite five-tool outfielder Andrew McCutchen was the consensus No. 2 pick in preseason drafts, but he's struggled mightily to open '15, ranking outside the top 300 fantasy players in the Y! game through the first month of the season. Where would you select him if you were drafting today for rest-of-season value - O/U pick No. 24.5 overall?

Brandon – OVER. I really want to say under but, if I'm being honest in imagining myself drafting today for rest of season value, the concerns about 'Cutch's knee would probably steer me clear of him until at least Round 3. I look at the fact that he's attempted just one steal (in which he was thrown out), where he's averaged seven SB attempts over the past five Aprils, and that looks like a red flag. And he ranks among the bottom 20 regulars in Slugging% (.293). Fact is, he's flashing none of that power/speed combo that made him a top 2 pick, and it's hard not thinking that the knee is more than a minor issue.

Scott – OVER. I'm floor-driven with early baseball picks (in football, it should be the opposite), and something seems wrong with McCutchen. A nine-percent line-drive rate? One stolen-base attempt? This goes past a slow start. He's admitted to some knee soreness, but I suspect he might be underplaying it.

Andy – OVER, slightly. It's not as if I'd take him off the board, but I do think the knee issue he dealt with this spring is perhaps a bigger deal than we'd guessed at the time. His line-drive rate is half of what it was last season. Something's up, beyond bad luck.

Texas corner Adrian Beltre is another well-established fantasy stud that has left a sour taste in the mouths of his owners to this point. His current OPS (hovering right around .600) is the lowest of his career. The last time he had an OPS below .800 was his final season in Seattle. Can he continue to keep his post-Mariners OPS streak alive - O/U .7999 OPS?

Dalton – OVER. His K% is actually a career low, and he sports a .225 BABIP (career mark is .299), so I'm chalking this up to some really poor luck over the first month of the year.

Andy – OVER. Beltre is too good, the park is too friendly. Back in his L.A. days, he was a notoriously ordinary first-half performer. I'm not panicked. If you're selling, I'm buying.

Scott – It's a tougher call than Question 1, but I shade UNDER. A lot of similarities to the McCutchen scan: less walks, less strikeouts, puny line-drive rate. Beltre has his lowest hard-hit rate since 2003. He's making most of this bad luck.

Seattle second sacker Robinson Cano matched his April home run tally from a year ago by hitting a single roundtripper in the first month of the '15 campaign. A year ago, he finished with just 14 home runs. Will he do better than that this season - O/U rest-of-season HRs 13.5?

Brandon – UNDER. I'll say he hits a dozen more home runs the rest of the way, falling just shy of this mark. Cano has hit two home runs or less now in five of the seven full months that he has played as a member of the Mariners. He doesn't hit a lot of fly balls (roughly 25% rate), and he's fifth in MLB at the moment in balls hit up the middle, not the approach that is going to lead to a lot of home runs, especially at Safeco Field.

Scott –  OVER. Cano hasn't been commanding the strike zone as we'd like, but he's hitting the ball hard, and that's going to get the ball over the wall eventually. One of the best buy-lows on the board. I think he can still hit 20-plus homers, in face. 

Andy – OVER. Again, we're talking about a player with a long history of excellence, coming off a slow month. I'm not troubled. Cano always gives us 155-plus games, so we know the plate appearances will be there. I wouldn't project him for 20 homers this season, but I certainly think 15-or-so is reasonable.

A former highly-regarded prospect in the Toronto organization, Jake Marisnick has found a home in Houston, where he's on pace to hit well above .300 while pushing 60 steals. How much regression are you projecting for the Astro pup - O/U final '15 line of .2845 batting average and 34.5 stolen bases?

Scott –  I lean OVER on Marisnick, because he's always been a pedigree guy. it's a shame the righty-heavy Astros need to keep him buried in the lineup, though; Altuve is locked in as the leadoff man, and the 3-4-5 slots belong to right-handed bats, so Marisnick can't grab the No. 2 slot. 

Andy – Tough, because I really, really like this guy. He's been a DFS regular for me all year, a Daily Dime fixture. But he hasn't swiped 35 bases since he was in the Midwest League (37 in 2011), and he's never been a high average hitter. I think he'll be plenty useful, but I gotta say UNDER here. Sorry, Jake.

Dalton – UNDER the .285 BA but OVER the 34.5 stolen bases. It sure helps he already has nine bags in the bank.

Outfielder Chris Young is off to a hot start for New York, and he's now hitting .296 with nine home runs in his 46 career games with the Yankees. How much of a career ressurection do you foresee for the long-time roto talent tease - O/U final '15 line of .257 batting average (his single-season career high) and 21.5 home runs?

Brandon –   UNDER/OVER. Power has never been an issue for Young, so I think regular playing time should keep his HR tally in good shape. But he's a .235 career hitter and I think we're already witnessing the beginning of the slow drain on his batting average (.222 over past two weeks). That said, I'm guessing he'll at least make it close on the BA side, and I'm happy to have him for $1 on my AL-only team.

Andy – UNDER and OVER. We've all experienced the Chris Young roller coaster at some point, right? It's going to be tough for him to not reach 22 HRs from where he's at, but that .257 average still seems like a dream.

Dalton –  OVER and OVER. He's been crushing southpaws and not playing everyday against right-handers, which should help keep his average afloat. It's too bad Young has totally stopped running, but he's back on the radar for sure.

Rate the rookies in terms of expected ROS roto value - Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, Addison Russell, Devon Travis, Stephen Souza?

Brandon –   1) Bryant 2) Pederson 3) Travis 4) Soler 5) Souza 6) Russell - Interesting to note that Pederson and Soler both rank among the top 15 in Hard-Hit%, but Soler also ranks among the five worst (along with Souza) in K% ... That Bryant has yet to hit a HR is crazy, but you gotta like the .283 BA and solid K/BB ratio, and you have to figure (especially with a FB% pushing 50%) that the sky is going to open up soon for him and start raining long balls.

Andy – Bryant, Pederson, Soler ... ... Travis ... Souza ... Russell. I think the three guys at the top are very, very close, and you'll love owning any of 'em.

Dalton – 1) Bryant 2) Pederson 3) Soler 4) Travis 5) Souza 6) Russell

Stephen Vogt is Oakland's latest out-of-left field star, as he sits behind only Nelson Cruz among the MLB leaders in RBI (25). How much staying power does the catcher-eligible Vogt have - O/U 74.5 end-of-season RBI line?

Brandon – OVER. I'll say that he goes slightly over, but I will note that 17 of his 25 RBI have come in games in which he hit a home run, and he currently has a crazy-high HR/FB rate that will certainly regress significantly as the season wears on. Still, there's no denying that Vogt is skilled with the bat, and he should continue to see heavy action in the middle of the A's lineup.

Scott – OVER. He's secured a full-time job now, and the A's should be one of the Top 5 scoring teams in the majors. Just make sure you give the credit to Brad Pitt and Scott Hatteberg.

Dalton – OVER. He only needs a modest 50 more, and he's locked in the middle of Oakland's lineup whenever a right-hander is on the mound.

Rank the following widely-available high-ERA, high-volume K starting pitchers in terms of expected ROS roto value - Clay Buchholz, Michael Fiers, Joe Kelly, Rubby De La Rosa, Travis Wood, James Paxton, Taijuan Walker

Brandon –   1) Fiers 2) Paxton 3) Buchholz 4) Kelly 5) Walker 6) De La Rosa 7) Wood

Dalton – 1) Fiers 2) Buchholz 3) Walker 4) Paxton 5) Wood 6) Kelly 7) De La Rosa

Scott –  1) Fiers (12 strikeouts, you're back in the COT), 2) Buchholz, 3) Paxton, 4) Kelly, 5) Walker, 6) De La Soul, 7) Wood

Madison Bumgarner compiled a whopping 270 IP (counting the postseason) in '14. Will that robust body of work eventually catch up to him this season - project his final '15 line in IP, K and ERA.

Brandon – Full disclosure, Pianowski wanted a Mad-Bum question on this week's Over/Unders because the '14 workload really concerns him. But I'm not really sharing in that concern. He's only 25 years old, he's handled 200-plus innings each of the past four seasons with nary a trip to the DL and he's typically only gotten stronger as the season moves along - post AS-break ERA 57 points lower than his first-half mark. I'll put him down for a fairly typical line: 205 IP, 3.06 ERA, 191 K

Dalton – It's definitely possible, but Bumgarner is built like a workhorse and reached 95.1 mph during his last start, which was his fastest pitch since 2010, for what it's worth - 200.0 innings, 195 Ks, 2.90 ERA

Scott –  I've been concerned about Bumgarner after the 270-inning marathon, and then he mows down the Padres on Monday like it's a simulated game. Perhaps I worry too much, but he's still looking at a depressed K rate and a lucky home-run rate to open 2015. There's a name-brand sell ticket to explore; I'm sure someone will treat him like a Top 5-6 starter. Call it 207 innings, 3.22 ERA, 187 Ks - strong numbers, but someone might pay for higher expectations.

Two of the top southpaw relievers in the fantasy game last season - Jake McGee and Sean Doolittle - are nearing their '15 debuts after nursing injuries this spring. Both are currently available in at least a third of Yahoo leagues. If you had to pick one for ROS fantasy value, who would you choose?

Scott – Stick with DR. DOOLITTLE, in part because his bullpen teammates have done less in his absence.

Andy – I've gotta go DOOLITTLE, mostly because I'm not sure why the Rays wouldn't want Boxberger to keep closing. That guy is a monster.

Dalton – MCGEE. This is close, but I'm a little less worried about his injury (elbow vs. shoulder) and fully expect him to retake the closer's role once he's back in short order.