Mostly NFL Notes: A 2015 NFC Season Preview
Here's a look at my preview of the NFC this season, loaded with fantasy predictions. The AFC version will be out Wednesday.
NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys 10-6
2. Philadelphia Eagles 9-7 (Wild Card)
3. New York Giants 8-8
4. Washington Redskins 6-10
Comments/Fantasy predictions: Tony Romo led the NFL in YPA (8.5), completion percentage (69.9) and QBR (83.6) last season. He finished with two fewer TD throws (34) than his career high despite attempting 85 fewer passes. With the team’s RB situation in flux, expect a top-five fantasy QB performance. He’s clearly a legit MVP candidate...Joseph Randle got 6.7 YPC last season (when he had 10+ yards on 22% of his carries that led the NFL) and should get the first crack at inheriting one of the best roles in the NFL – running behind Dallas’ dominant offensive line, which helped DeMarco Murray total 2,261 yards. Randle is a risk but has top-10 upside...Terrance Williams reaches 1,000 receiving yards...The Cowboys have a real chance to win the Super Bowl this season.
Take advantage of Zach Ertz’s injury and draft him late, as he got more yards per route run (1.77) than Jimmy Graham (1.70) last season...Chip Kelly’s Eagles have been the healthiest team in the NFL since he’s taken over, but they admittedly have a tall task keeping Sam Bradford on the field for the duration (although Mark Sanchez did get 7.8 YPA in this system last year if Bradford were to go down again)...Jordan Matthews goes crazy, finishing as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver.
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Eli Manning finishes as a top-10 fantasy QB, and despite regressing some, Odell Beckham Jr. is still a top-10 player overall – he not only averaged 14.3 YPC, ODB’s drop rate (2.15) was the fourth-best among all WRs during his insane rookie campaign...Victor Cruz struggles in his return from injury, while Reuben Randle finally lives up to the hype...Shane Vereen is a top-25 back in PPR leagues.
Unfortunately, Robert Griffin gets hurt again, leading to Colt McCoy taking over, who then proceeds to get injured shortly thereafter. Kirk Cousins starts the most games for Washington this year...Alfred Morris is something of a bust, and Pierre Garcon’s fantasy value is much closer to DeSean Jackson’s than it was last year.
This commercial for Madden 2016 is pretty amazing.
Here’s bad lip reading of the first Republican debate.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers 12-4
2. Minnesota Vikings 8-8
3. Detroit Lions 7-9
4. Chicago Bears 5-11
Comments/Fantasy predictions: Eddie Lacy, who had the second most carries for 15-plus yards last season (second only to Murray), will lead the NFL in touchdown runs...Aaron Rodgers remains a top-three fantasy QB despite the loss of Jordy Nelson, and the Packers make the title game at minimum as well...Davante Adams finishes as a top-15 fantasy receiver...Teddy Bridgewater led all quarterbacks with a 75.2 accuracy percentage when pressured last season, although his deep ball remains a work in progress. Still, he looks like a potential star, even with just decent options to throw to...Here are my thoughts on Adrian Peterson.
Matthew Stafford, who averaged 4,885 yards and 30 TD passes (to go along with six rushing scores) over the previous three seasons before last year’s disappointing campaign, goes down as one of the bigger QB bargains thanks mostly to Calvin Johnson staying healthy. Moreover, Eric Ebron improves in year two, and there’s Golden Tate to help him out as well. Stafford isn’t a very good quarterback in real life, but did you realize he’s younger than Colin Kaepernick?...Ameer Abdullah lives up to the hype and is a top-15 fantasy back despite dealing with a committee for the first half of the year...Eddie Royal is a nice flex play, and Matt Forte catches 40 fewer balls than he did in 2014, while Alshon Jeffery finishes with more fantasy value than Demaryius Thomas and A.J. Green.
Headlines of the Week: Man Tries To Dig Up Dead Father To Argue With Him...Idaho Replaces Mile-Marker 420 With 419.9 To Thwart Stoners...Man Pretended To Be Doctor For 3 Years, Treated More than 100 Patients...Bus Knocks Down Cycling Safety Demonstrators...Former NASA Astronaut Claims The Aliens Prevented Nuclear War Between The US And Russia...Florida Gun Range Will Have Restaurant That Serves Booze.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints 9-7
2. Atlanta Falcons 9-7 (Wild Card)
3. Carolina Panthers 7-9
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-10
Comments/Fantasy predictions: Brandin Cooks is a top-10 fantasy wide receiver and is a dark horse to finish with the most receiving yards in the NFL...Mark Ingram, who had 20 carries inside the five-yard line last season (six more than any other RB), is a top-15 fantasy back, while Marques Colston returns to approaching double-digit scores thanks to Jimmy Graham’s departure...Julio Jones is a monster, finishing as the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver and is a unanimous top-five overall pick in 2016 drafts...Tevin Coleman is the Falcons’ back with the most value, but it’s frustrating to his owners expecting more while dealing mostly with a committee...Despite my prediction here, it won’t be easy for Atlanta to make the playoffs, as they allowed the league’s highest YPA (8.2) last season. Their offense is going to have to score plenty of points, but I say new OC Kyle Shanahan is up to the task.
Greg Olsen scores a couple of more times than usual, but those expecting a career-best campaign after Kelvin Benjamin’s season-ending injury are left disappointed. Of course, he’s still a top-five tight end regardless...Jonathan Stewart is a top-12 back in the games in which he plays, but those barely reach half the season...Jameis Winston “leads” the NFL in interceptions but is still plenty valuable in 2-QB formats thanks to his weapons and plenty of shootouts in his division...Doug Martin is a viable RB3, while Vincent Jackson is a viable WR2, as his two touchdowns last year on 142 targets was a fluke.
Police Blotter: Store Owner Pulls Out Sword, Scares Off Would-Be Robbers With Machete...Alleged Shoplifter Takes Limo To, From Store...Thieves Break In Store, Uncap 1.2K Beers...Mom Arrested After Allegedly Kidnapping Her Own Daughter To Avoid Vaccination...Cops Arrest Florida Man For Sauerkraut Battery On Girlfriend.
Longread of the Week: Adrian Peterson’s Suspended Reality
NFC West
1. Seattle Seahawks 10-6
2. Arizona Cardinals 8-8
3. San Francisco 49ers 7-9
4. St. Louis Rams 7-9
Comments/Fantasy predictions: Jimmy Graham, who didn’t have one 30-yard catch last season (he had eight the prior year), disappoints owners who spend an early pick on him (his current Yahoo ADP is 30.0, which is 18.6 picks ahead of Travis Kelce)...Marshawn Lynch has 14 more rushing touchdowns than any other back over the past four seasons (h/t Bill Barnwell), but with 2,033 career carries (and 1,345 over the last four including the playoffs), he lets down those who spend a top-five pick on him. Seattle of course remains an elite team though.
Carson Palmer has an 11-2 record over his last 13 starts but is 35 years old and coming off his second torn ACL, so it’s tough to get too excited about this offense...Andre Ellington got 5.5 YPC during his rookie campaign, but he was one of the biggest busts as a sophomore last season, when that number dropped to 3.3. Pro Football Focus graded him as the No. 56 runner out of 57 qualified backs, as Ellington got just 1.8 YPC after contact, which was the second lowest in the NFL. He played hurt, but there’s reason to be concerned about his durability moving forward. He’s 26 years old and to give reference, LeSean McCoy just turned 27 a month ago. I far prefer David Johnson at his price versus Ellington’s.
Among QBs who attempted at least 330 passes, Colin Kaepernick’s percentage of yards that came before the catch (59.6) was second in the NFL (Peyton Manning was first, and Tony Romo was third), and that was with basically zero downfield threats. (Alex Smith finished last at 42.3%)...Carlos Hyde should lose passing-down work to Reggie Bush, is unproven and plays in a division that’s tough defensively. The 49ers also had arguably the worst offseason in recent memory (history?). But Hyde’s 2.8 YPC after contact last season tied for the third highest among all backs who had at least 80 rushing attempts. He forced 25 missed tackles on 83 carries, just six fewer than teammate Frank Gore who had 255 carries. Hyde is currently going in the middle of the fifth round, which seems low...Torrey Smith finishes as a top-25 fantasy wide receiver.
The Rams’ defense is dominant, but Nick Foles flops, although Brian Quick is a worthy WR in deeper leagues. Todd Gurley is a difference maker in the second half of the season and is a top-15 overall fantasy pick in 2016 drafts.
