Monday Rewind: Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis carnival
My earliest 2014 ranks had Andrew Luck as the No. 4 fantasy quarterback, and he stayed in that position all summer. I never wavered on the rank, never rethought it, never adjusted it.
So it's beyond frustrating that I don't have him on a single Fake Football roster.
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The script from Luck's 2014 debut is familiar to NFL and fantasy fans. Indianapolis dug itself an early hole, in part because of a leaky defense and in part because of a broken running game. You could even fault OC Pep Hamilton if you want (and you probably should).
Eventually, the game situation saved the Colts from themselves. Ahmad Bradshaw started to play more, Trent Richardson less. I raised the question on Twitter during the game and I'll repeat it here - is there anything Richardson does better than Bradshaw? Assuming Bradshaw can stay healthy, shouldn't he become an equal member of this backfield, if not the outright starter?
It's hard to say where the Colts defense is these days: it didn't look good during the first half at Denver, but it's not the first unit to get riddled by Peyton Manning and Julius Thomas. Indianapolis stopped the Broncos for most of the second half, perhaps because Manning and Co. took the foot off the gas pedal.
Back to Luck, he has a full batch of weapons if the Colts will simply let him loose a little bit. Reggie Wayne is back in the mix, and while he offers very little in yards after the catch, he's still a brilliant route runner and reliable chain mover. Hakeem Nicks finally revisited the end zone (first time since 2012) and should be able to make some sort of contribution. Intriguing matchup problem Dwayne Allen was a factor - remember he missed all of last year. Denver did an excellent job locking up vertical threat T.Y. Hilton, but most teams don't have the same cornerback depth and talent.
Luck will probably have a bunch of games like the opener, where the game situation saves the Colts from themselves. Richardson looks like a lost cause as a running back (he occasionally flashes as a receiver). I can't imagine the Colts defense being better than average this year, and maybe it will be mediocre again. We know suspended pass-rush specialist Robert Mathis won't be back - he has a torn Achilles.
Volume can be your best friend in the fantasy racket, even more than efficiency at times. Luck was Yahoo's No. 2 fantasy player from Week 1 (only Matt Ryan topped him), despite a mediocre QB rating (83.1, 20th in the league) and YPA (6.98, 17th). These things often work out when you chuck 53 passes.
The Eagles and Colts hook up in Week 2. Get your popcorn ready. And while the AFC South isn't loaded with offensive juggernauts, maybe some of Indy's competitors will be better than initially thought. Tennessee certainly had some frisky moments in its opening victory at Kansas City.
Before we look around the league, here's a user-friendly glance at how I view everyone on the Colts offense.
- Luck, same as ever, the best fantasy QB after the Holy Trinity (or if you want to drop him after Ryan, I won't complain).
- I want no part of Richardson in any format.
- I'd have Bradshaw in the 30s if I were shuffling the backs right now, rest of season (note: Shuffle Up will debut next week).
- Wayne looks like a WR3 in PPR formats and a WR4 in standard.
- Hilton will have his share of boom-and-bust afternoons, what you get with that type of player. He'd be close to Wayne's rank, though Wayne's consistency would likely get the nod.
- I'm still leery of Nicks after the crash landing in New York. I like him the least of the main wideouts here. I don't own him and won't be trying to acquire him.
- Allen has always been the upside tight end here (over Colby Fleener), it's just a matter of staying healthy. He's one of the late-teen TEs to target for the rest of the year. I'd rather have him than Travis Kelce, for one name - that's not a knock on Kelce, but a comment on their relative situations.
A few other comments around the league:
• Miami was awfully impressive on both sides of the ball, especially in the second half when the Dolphins basically embarrassed the Patriots. The running game carried Miami's offense, a far cry from the situation last year. The Dolphins ranked 30th in run blocking last season, per Pro Football Focus. Through 14 games of 2014 (28 teams in play), Miami ranks No. 1 in that area.
Of course, any offense line looks better when the skill players are hitting the holes and the coaching staff is putting talent in a position to succeed. That was the case in the opener.
Knowshon Moreno should be the best back here, though Lamar Miller can do some things, too. And it was refreshing to see Mike Wallace unleashed and used creatively, a riddle the Dolphins couldn't solve last year. Firing OC Mike Sherman was a win on its own, but it appears Bill Lazor learned a few things under the wing of Chip Kelly. Better days are ahead for Ryan Tannehill and Charles Clay.
• As you can surely piece together, Ryan has much the same infrastructure advantage as Luck. Atlanta's defense looks shaky, the running game sluggish. Ryan's receiving group isn't as deep as Luck's, but it's loaded with two stars at the top (Julio Jones, Roddy White). Atlanta's going to play plenty of pinball games, similar to the entertaining Week 1 victory over New Orleans.
• The hidden story in Minnesota remains the same as it was all summer: Greg Jennings. The veteran receiver was the most-targeted Viking, turning it into a solid 6-58-1 line (seven looks). No, those aren't pinball numbers, but Jennings has an outstanding rapport with veteran QB Matt Cassel - and most opponents will fight back more than the Rams offense did. Jennings is shockingly available in 62 percent of Yahoo leagues, a number that needs fixing.
• Robert Griffin didn't make any glaring mistakes, but it's obvious how uncomfortable he is in the new Washington offense. I'm glad I don't have any shares of this passing game. And for all the talent TE Jordan Reed possesses, his injury history makes him untrustable right now. (Silver lining for Washington fans: Dallas and New York don't look any better.)
I remain a sympathizer for Alfred Morris, even after his touchdown chance got vultured. Maybe I'm the last apologist. I'd buy there.
• It was a solid debut for Geno Smith, and most importantly, he looked comfortable with top target Eric Decker. But I'd like to see the Michael Vick gadget stuff thrown in the trash. Let your young quarterback develop. Don't waste any time or snaps trying to get cute. Did the Jets learn nothing from the Tim Tebow mistake?
• I avoided Kelvin Benjamin in the August draft season, a move I've quickly come to regret. Benjamin's shown the ability to make contested catches, a huge part of the pro game. Basically, he's open even when he's not open. His touchdown grab Sunday was my favorite highlight of the day.
If I could have just one Carolina target for all my teams, I'd still side with Wallet-approved TE Greg Olsen (forever underrated). But I suspect Benjamin is ready for 7-8 touchdowns right out of the box.
