MLB Stock Watch: Steven Matz rising, Giancarlo Stanton falling
STOCK UP
Steven Matz: Since getting blown up in his first start of the year, Matz has a 1.35 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP with a 42:6 K:BB ratio over 40.0 innings, winning all six of his starts. His 21.1 K-BB% ranks top-10 among all starters in MLB, and among those ahead of him, only Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Nola have a higher GB/FB ratio than Matz’s 2.07. His average fastball velocity (93.4 mph) is the highest among all left-handed starters in baseball, and Matz is one of only three SPs to have four scoreless starts of at least six innings this year (Jake Arrieta and Clayton Kershaw are the others). Health remains a legit concern with Matz, but performance wise, there’s little reason he won’t finish as a top-10 fantasy SP.
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Joey Gallo: He had eight homers in just 84 at bats in Triple-A while showing improved plate discipline with a 24:22 K:BB ratio. His strikeout rate will likely always lead to a lower batting average, but with Shin-Soo Choo and Drew Stubbs both hitting the DL, Gallo should get a chance at mostly regular at bats in Texas (especially with Prince Fielder and Mitch Moreland hitting so poorly as well). Gallo’s floor is low, but his power upside makes him worth grabbing in all fantasy leagues right now.
Brandon Guyer: Thanks to injuries, Guyer is not only now an everyday player for the Rays, he’s also hitting leadoff. His current .315/.412/.559 line is almost certainly over his head, but he did sport a .359 OBP last season with a combined 18 homers/steals over just 332 at bats, and Guyer is owned in less than 10 percent of Yahoo leagues, which doesn’t make much sense.
Carlos Beltran: Even after an 0-for-4 performance Wednesday, Beltran has raised his OPS 150 points over the past six games, when he’s hit .400 with 10 RBI. He’s yet to attempt a steal this season, but he’s quietly on pace to finish with 36 homers, 86 runs scored and 104 RBI during his age 39 season. Beltran is a candidate to be traded, and while that could be considered a plus since New York has scored the sixth fewest runs in baseball, fantasy owners probably shouldn’t be rooting for a move away from Yankee Stadium.
Julio Teheran: Over his last six starts, he has a 0.89 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP with a 42:9 K:BB ratio over 40.2 innings. He has just one win this season despite a 2.57 ERA over 10 starts, as the Braves have given him just 2.10 runs per start, which is the second lowest in baseball. A lack of run support should remain a problem for Teheran, and his .247 BABIP is due for some correction (although he’s allowing just a 15.7 LD%, which ranks eighth lowest in MLB), but he’s pitched much better this season after last year’s disappointing campaign.
STOCK DOWN
Giancarlo Stanton: He’s in the middle of an epic slump, as Stanton has hit .107/.219/.214 over his past eight games, striking out a whopping 18 times over 28 at bats. One of the league’s premier sluggers, he’s now batting .197 against right-handed pitchers this season and is on pace to strike out 215 times over 151 games. His contact rate is clearly becoming a major concern. This slump actually goes back even further, as he’s batted .119 over his past 59 ABs, and to make matters worse, he’s now missing action with soreness in his right side, although maybe it’s a positive an injury has possibly been the culprit to this dire slump, as the alternative is actually worse.
Jose Abreu: His three-hit game Tuesday was remarkably his first of the season, and he followed that up with another Wednesday. Still, the recent hot streak leaves him with a .739 OPS, and he has one homer over his past 71 at bats and is on pace to club just 20 this season over 628 ABs despite playing in U.S. Cellular Field, which has increased home runs by 13 percent for RHB over the past three seasons (the third-most in the American League). After being the No. 6 most valuable fantasy hitter during his rookie year in 2014, Abreu is currently the No. 221 ranked fantasy player.
Brian Dozier: After recording a .639 OPS post All-Star break last season, Dozier has struggled so far in 2016, especially against right-handers, whom he’s hit .181/.271/.304 against. His 71 wRC+ is the 20th worst in all of baseball, and among the 80 players with at least a 9.1 BB% as Dozier has, only Mark Teixeira has a worse batting average. With Eduardo Nunez’s breakout at the plate and Eduardo Escobar’s return from the DL (he’s a strong defender), Dozier is actually no longer a sure thing in the Twins’ starting lineup.
Joe Mauer: After finishing April with a .321/.453/.440 line, he’s hit .228/.299/.316 in May, totaling 10 extra-base hits over 163 at bats this season. Mauer gets a boost in OBP leagues, and he has nearly as many walks as strikeouts while hitting in the middle of Minnesota’s lineup, but the Twins have scored the fewest runs in the American League, and among first basemen, Mauer’s three homers rank No. 28 in MLB.
Michael Wacha: He hasn’t lasted more than 4.0 innings in any of his last three starts, when he’s surrendered 20 runs (16 earned) with eight walks over 12.0 innings. Wacha’s velocity is way down (92.8 mph) compared to last year (94.2), and his 7.6 SwStr% is easily a career low and ranks 89th among all starters in baseball. Wacha has had some unfortunate luck with a BABIP (.349) and LOB% (61.7) both well off his career marks (.288 and 73.6), but his xFIP (.394) is outside the top-50 among starters, so it’s clear he hasn’t been nearly what fantasy owners expected.
