Hunter Pence breaks his arm

For about three months, I was in full-on Hunter Pence propaganda mode. I promoted him, on the blogs and in the magazines, and tweeted about his sneaky, underrated game. If I wasn’t driving the Pence bandwagon, I at least had a seat near the front.

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Today, he’s just another injured player who’s on my skepticism list.

You probably saw the news item come down Thursday night, but in case you missed it, here it is:

I was prepared to target Pence as a third or fourth-round pick in most of my mixers, but that goes out the window now. He won't be in my Top 100 when I re-rank the 2015 pool, and that probably means I won't get him in any of my upcoming leagues. I always assume someone will drink the optimism Kool-Aid before I will.

I tend to be highly cautious with the return timetables on any long-term injury, and I also refuse to expect immediate production from any player off a multiple-week injury. I also laugh when I read that a certain type of injury "tends to linger." Tell me what sort of 6-8 week injury doesn't have lingering or extended-rust potential.

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I know some pundits still view Pence as a Top 75-100 guy. I view that as a grave error. Who's to say he's full-throttle upon return? I'm not happy about it, but I'm probably going to pass on Pence this month, unless I find myself in a room full of similar pessimists (I doubt it). It's nothing personal, just the way I do business.  

To be blunt about it, I'm glad we'll never run out of best-case wishers for those long-term injured. It's the easiest thing to leverage against.

Feel differently? No worries. That's why we have a game. State your optimism case in the comments. Kale Shakes for everybody.