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First Down: Go for Gronk? Kelce, Hill are why you shouldn't

As the summer heats up, Yahoo's resident Noisemaker will offer his hot takes on specific players, trends and strategies much discussed in Fantasyland. Naturally, whatever he forecasts, the opposite is bound to occur. Feel free to offer your two cents in the comments section below.

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The Buzz: Several fantasy pundits have declared Rob Gronkowski (7.6 Yahoo ADP, TE1) a top-five pick. Rankings aggregate Fantasy Pros has him slotted at No. 7 overall, 27 spots ahead of TE2 Jimmy Graham and 46 notches before TE3 Greg Olsen. Pricey. His dominance at a questionable position, prime age and ties to a Hall of Fame quarterback offer support. Contrary to that belief, many, appropriately so, are circumventing him for more affordable options.

Why several "experts" are willing to liquidate college funds for Gronk:

A WR1 eligible at TE. Undoubtedly, this is the most crucial piece of evidence in the case for Gronk. Among all WRs and TEs with at least 30 games played from 2011-2014, the Patriot sandwiched between Dez Bryant and Julio Jones at No. 4 in standard per game fantasy scoring. Graham was the only other tight end to rank inside the top 20. When in uniform, the man is a steady, elite producer.

Touchdowns. The primary reason why Gronk is a verifiable king of consistency: end-zone spikes. In 65 career regular season tilts, he scored six a remarkable 54 times. On a per game basis, he's crossed the chalk in 32 of his past 45 contests.

Position supremacy. Over the past four seasons, No. 87 has bested TE2 Graham by 1.49 fantasy points per game and TE12 Coby Fleener by a 6.66 margin. How does that compare to the starting class at other positions? The Gronk gap was wider than QBs (QB1-QB12 4.68 fppg) and, crazily, wide receivers (WR1-WR36 6.09 fppg). However, RB1-RB24 showed a greater disparity netting a 7.50 fppg divide. Though Adrian Peterson, the No. 1 ranked RB in the viewed sample, has an argument, no player has dominated his position more than Gronk. It's hard to dispute.

If you avoid Gronk, here are five upside TEs worth grabbing:

Travis Kelce, KC (49.6 ADP, TE3). #FreeKelce tags are no longer needed. The Chiefs tight end will soon achieve superstar status. Bounded by a prior microfracture procedure, he was forced to split snaps with Anthony Fasano last season. Still, despite the manacles, he excelled on a points per snap basis ranking sixth in the category. Overall, his 67-862-5 line was the sixth-best at the position in PPR settings. Not to be overlooked, he was also the top run-blocker among TEs according to Pro Football Focus. The man can do it all. Andy Reid is on record he wants "more and better" from Kelce in Year 3. With Fasano no longer in the picture, Kelce could see roughly 80-85 percent of team snaps (66.6 snap% in '14), giving him a legitimate shot to challenge Gronk for the TE throne. Jeremy Maclin should help free him up across the middle, a luxury he didn't have last fall. If he slips to Round 5 or 6 in 12-team drafts, which has happened often in early "expert" exercises, you're stealing him.

Jordan Cameron, Mia (72.7, TE8). Two years ago Cameron was the cat's meow. He was an integral target in a Browns offense on the verge of respectability. That season he tallied a 80-917-7 line, good enough for the fourth-best fantasy output at TE. Then disaster struck. Norv Turner went bye-bye. Josh Gordon couldn't avoid the one-hitter. Instability at QB ensued. And the ground game became a point of emphasis. As a result, Cameron's looks and overall production suffered. Even when healthy – he missed six games due to post-concussion issues – he finished outside the TE top-15 in fantasy points per game. A fresh start in what should be an electrifying Dolphins offense could have him rejoin the elite. When on the field, Cameron boasts superb size, dexterity and athleticism. He's an excellent deep-ball threat who should benefit greatly from the weapons around him. A repeat of 2013 is achievable. Recall last year, Charles Clay averaged a notable six targets per game with the 'Fins.

The Hill hype is just beginning. (AP)
The Hill hype is just beginning. (AP)

Josh Hill, NO (128.1, TE17)

. With Graham catching carp in Seattle, the door swings open for the undrafted product from Idaho St. Many expected New Orleans to address tight end in the draft, but instead of sinking a top pick in Maxx Williams, the Saints avoided the position altogether, a statement of how much confidence Sean Payton has in Hill. The underrated target was lethal in limited doses last year. Though the sample size was small, his 0.96 fantasy points per opportunity in PPR (0.74 in standard) topped all TEs by a colossal margin (Gronk's PPR ppo was 0.60). Considering Ben Watson and Orson Charles are his only competition, a massive uptick in playing time should be expected (293 snaps played in '14). Payton waxed romantically about Hill in late March exalting the 25-year-old's measureables and athleticism. In a prime spot to break out, he could explode for 800 yards and 7-9 TDs.

Owen Daniels, Den (87.6, TE10). Daniels and Gary Kubiak are attached at the hip. The tight end and new Broncos head coach previously worked together in Houston and Baltimore and have again reunited in Denver. Daniels might as well be an assistant coach. Compared to his earlier stops, the veteran is blessed with the most favorable situation of his nine-year career. Matt Schaub and Joe Flacco are no Peyton Manning, even in the penultimate stage of the five-time MVP's career. Kubiak's system typically features two TEs. Daniels and upstart Virgil Green are expected to work in tandem with Julius Thomas roughing it in Jacksonville. Still, the scheme has been very kind to the position. From 2010-2013 Texans TEs ranked inside the top-10 in fantasy production. Drops have plagued Daniels at times, but the former Badger could be in store for a career year.

Delanie Walker, Ten (123.4, TE13). In terms of dependability and consistency, Walker is the only game in town, Nashville that is. As other Titans receivers floundered, the ex-Niner flourished with "Checkdown" Charlie Whitehurst under center. Though the end zone was elusive, he finished as a back-end TE1 over the final seven weeks of 2014 racking 7.0 targets, 4.0 receptions and 59.3 yards per game. Rookie Marcus Mariota, who's a noticeable upgrade over the Clipboard Jesus, should stave off Zach Mettenberger for Week 1 duties. If that happens and he keeps the gig the rest of the season, the No. 2 overall pick is sure to look for his safety valve often, especially when vacating the pocket. Another 100-plus targets seem inevitable for Walker. If the TDs rise into the 6-8 range – he recorded only four last year – he would be a top-five TE fixture.

Bottom Line: It's been a non-stop party for Gronk since winning Super Bowl XLIX. He's doled out  "Gronkings," celebrated his 26th birthday in Vegas, visited the White House, attended the Kentucky Derby and May-Pac fight in the same day, was a Madden cover finalist and channeled vintage Snoop Dogg when responding to Deflategate. But despite his fantasy and off-the-field preeminence, Gronk isn't without complications. Over his five-year career, he's been the team physician's best friend missing 15 games. His violent, no-holds-barred approach leaves him susceptible to injury. He would gladly bore through a castle wall if directed. Commendable? Sure, but it also raises the danger factor. Tom Brady's possible four-game absence is another monkey wrench. I'm confident Jimmy Garoppolo would fill the void admirably, but given the second-year QB's inexperience, that's far from a guarantee. Many will equate Gronk to Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers. They're superior high-floor performers eligible at deep positions most starting rosters only require one of. However, the risks attached, and plethora of suitable alternatives, suggest avoiding him is the smart drafter's choice.

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