How coaching changes will alter fantasy landscape next season
Like the rest of popular culture, the NFL experiences its own trends and fads. Last season defensively minded coaches were on the rise. In 2016, however, candidates with offensive backgrounds filled all seven coaching vacancies. Their additions and the probable fantasy impacts are outlined below.
Cleveland Browns
OUT: Mike Pettine
IN: Hue Jackson
Another season. And another coaching change for the Browns. This year’s hire, however, doesn’t feel as yoked with inevitable failure as those of seasons past. Offering a bravado that motivates his players, and a nuanced knowledge of the division, Hue Jackson’s employment is surrounded by justified optimism.
An artful offensive mind whose creativity has enhanced the stat lines of NFL pros for the past decade and a half, Jackson most recently coordinated the Bengals offense, which averaged over 26 points per game in 2015. Under Jackson’s tutelage WR AJ Green (WR8), RB Jeremy Hill (RB17), RB Giovani Bernard (RB19), and TE Tyler Eifert (TE6) existed as top fantasy producers. It’s also worth noting that prior to the thumb injury, which - for all intents and purposes - ended QB Andy Dalton’s season, the Bengals signal caller was on pace for over 4,000 passing yards and 30 TDs. Those numbers would have rivaled his 2013 stats and put him among the top 5-7 fantasy players at the position.
Assuming that Jackson sends Johnny Manziel and his blonde wig packing, it’s very likely that the Browns will draft a QB with the second overall pick this April. Whether it’s Cal’s Jared Goff or Paxton Lynch from Memphis State, Jackson will have to lean on the run while the rookie signal caller develops. Duke Johnson – who should take on a Gio Bernard-type role and continue to excel on passing downs – will probably get most of the fantasy love. For my money, though, Isaiah Crowell is the best value. The Alabama State product – who wasn’t in great football shape this year – started to come on in the final five weeks of the season. With Jackson’s jawing and scheming I think the Crow will get properly fed and emerge in 2016.
Miami Dolphins
OUT: Joe Philbin/Dan Campbell
IN: Adam Gase
On loan to Chicago for a year before snagging his first head-coaching gig, Adam Gase will be taking responsibility for the current mess in Miami. The architect of Denver’s Super Bowl bound offense in 2013 and top-four finisher in 2014; Gase proved that his talent was not dependent on Peyton Manning’s in 2015. While the Bears didn’t have a winning season, Gase was able to do wonders with Jay Cutler, reducing the pick prone QB’s interceptions to just 11 on the season (and three of those came in Week 17).
While that might mean good things for Ryan Tannehill, I’m not touching him in fantasy. The moody QB has been given every opportunity to succeed, but has failed to reach the next level. His deep ball accuracy is still an issue, and, while I think Gase is great for him, I don’t think the strides he makes will translate into fantasy relevance, especially when given the depth of the position.
I would, however, target WR DeVante Parker who I expect will take on the No. 1 receiver role in which Demaryius Thomas and (when healthy) Alshon Jeffery excelled. Parker has flashed big play ability and is an awesome red zone threat. His targets should balloon come the fall.
As has been the case, Miami’s backfield is a cluster of question marks. RB Lamar Miller is currently a free agent. A dual threat RB in Gase’s system, which was sixth in rushing attempts this past year, Miller should soar. I have faith that Gase could scheme in order to get Miller in space and positively exploit his skill set. Regardless, Jay Ajayi needs to be on fantasy radars. A tough back with lateral agility, impressive balance, and reliable hands, Ajayi would be the Dolphins’ workhorse were Miller to leave.
New York Giants
OUT: Tom Coughlin
IN: Ben McAdoo
With Ben McAdoo drawing up the G-Men’s offense, QB Eli Manning has posted over 4.400 yards and 30 TDs in back-to-back seasons. Granted, a lot of that production has to do with the emergence of WR Odell Beckham Jr., but it’s also worth noting that Eli’s INTs have leveled out at 14 a piece over the last two years. Heading into 2016, the same or more – depending on any/all offseason acquisitions – should be expected from Manning, who finished the ninth best QB in fantasy this year.
Ranking among the top ten offenses in terms of total yards in both 2014 and 2015, McAdoo favors an up-tempo approach. Without an effective backfield or a healthy No. 2 receiver, however, this team hasn’t been able to reach it’s full potential. Until New York cleans up their running back corps and stops hoping for Victor Cruz to return, the only fantasy relevant pieces will continue to be Manning and Beckham.
Philadelphia Eagles
OUT: Chip Kelly
IN: Doug Pederson
Playing under Andy Reid through much of the late 90’s, Pederson has a long-standing history with the Chiefs’ head coach. So it makes sense that Brett Favre’s back up would have an intimate knowledge of - and ability to install - his former boss’ offense. In many ways, Pederson’s hiring in Philadelphia can be read as a homecoming: the West Coast offense will return to the City of Brotherly Love. That means good things for RBs DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews, as well as TE Zach Ertz.
Both backs flashed this past year, but also carry their fair share of red flags. Murray’s explosiveness has waned since the close of 2014 and Mathews is built like a China Doll. As of right now, it’s too early to tell which RB would make the most likely workhorse. However, potential fantasy owners will want to keep an eye on this backfield, as the position figures to be heavily featured.
A favorite of the metrics community, Ertz’s breakout has been long predicted. Despite an uncanny amount of bad luck in the red zone, Ertz averaged more than 100 yards per game over his last four games. With Pederson calling the plays, his draft stock should continue to rise. Who will be throwing him the ball, however, remains to be seen, as QB Sam Bradford is an unrestricted free agent and not an ideal fit for the incoming offense.
San Francisco 49ers
OUT: Jim Tomsula
IN: Chip Kelly
After a three-year sojourn on the East Coast, Kelly will return to the west. While I personally think this front office and head coach pairing spells disaster, Kelly has promised to leave the personnel decisions to GM Trent Baalke. In exchange, he’ll finally have a chance to develop the mobile quarterback he has long coveted.
Colin Kaepernick has struggled mightily over the past pair of seasons, often unable to progress beyond his first read. No longer chained to the pocket in Kelly’s system, however, Kaep may very well benefit from the offense more than the offense may benefit from him. After badly burning fantasy owners, fans of the virtual game may be reticent to buy in on the 28-year-old QB. Assuming he’s available in the 13th or 14th rounds, however, I’d consider rostering him as a QB2, given the upside that Kelly provides.
From a fantasy perspective, the only other piece of this offense worth discussing is RB Carlos Hyde. A powerful downhill runner, Hyde’s build in tandem with his talent is enough to succeed in nearly any offense. As long as he’s healthy, he should excel with Kelly at the helm, potentially finishing among the top-ten starters at the position.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
OUT: Lovie Smith
IN: Dirk Koetter
Apparently recognizing Lovie Smith’s inability to develop young offensive talent, the Glazer Family gave Koetter a promotion to head coach. In his first year as the team’s OC, Koetter revitalized Doug Martin’s career, and helped Jameis Winston achieve a 27 TD rookie campaign.
QB Matt Ryan posted the three best years of his career while Koetter was designing the offense in Atlanta from 2012 – 2014. That obviously bodes well for Winston, who closed out 2015 as the fourteenth best signal caller in fantasy.
Doug Martin, assuming he re-signs with the team, would continue to be an ace. Favoring a vertical offense, Koetter implements a large number of screen passes, which should also keep RB Charles Sims heavily involved and fantasy relevant. Despite focus issues and growing pains in his sophomore outing, Mike Evans has absolute WR1 appeal in the upcoming season, especially with Vincent Jackson unlikely to return. A headache for managers due to an inflated 2015 stock, Evans could present a discounted price and positive return on investment in 2016.
Tennessee Titans
OUT: Ken Whisenhunt
IN: Mike Mularkey
“Blah.” “Drat.” These aren’t just Toad’s favorite utterances from the “Frog and Toad” series of children’s books (which my two-year-old is obsessed with); they also sum up my feelings about the Titans’ latest blunder.
Why a young team with some legitimately dynamic pieces would turn to a coach who was one and done in Jacksonville is baffling. Yes, TE Delanie Walker should continue to be relied upon, but for the sake of good football I hope he doesn’t once again lead the team in targets. A former tight end himself, Mularkey’s lack of imagination is staggering.
If there’s any room for optimism it’s the addition of offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie. A former NFL running back and experienced wide receivers coach, Robiskie has the potential to bring along raw talents like David Cobb and Dorial Green-Beckham. His ability to construct and effective offense and unleash Marcus Mariota’s multi-dimensionality, however, remains to be seen. As of right now, it’s shaping up to be another long year in Tennessee.
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