Fantasy baseball high-risk/high-reward players: Bryce Harper, Hanley Ramirez and others
Bryce Harper: He’s a 22-year-old with a career 125 wRC+, which is why his ADP (31.9 in Yahoo leagues) remains high despite never reaching 60 RBI or surpassing 22 homers in any of his three seasons in the league. Harper also attempted just four steals in 100 games last season, as his base running took a major step down in general. He’s missed an average of 53 games over the past two years, which has barely discounted his price tag thanks to the past hype of him as baseball’s best prospect. Still, massive upside obviously remains and count me among those who’d be willing to take on the risk as early as round two. Matt Williams has said he might even bat Harper in the middle of the Nationals lineup this season, which is really thinking outside the box.
Hanley Ramirez: He’s on the wrong side of 30 and has missed an average of 46.3 games over the past four seasons. Ramirez has been a top-80 fantasy player just once over this span (in 2012, when he missed just five games and ranked No. 65), so he sure seems like a stretch at his current 22.6 ADP. However, his ability to stay healthy should increase with the move from shortstop to left field (especially in Fenway), and he looks bulked up out of his mind. Moreover, Ramirez will be hitting in the middle of an absolutely loaded Boston lineup in a park that’s increased BA more so than any park in baseball (other than Coors Field) over the past three years. I’m on board with Ramirez as a top-15 pick.
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Masahiro Tanaka: His 2.77 ERA last year would’ve ranked as the sixth lowest in the AL had he qualified despite a 14.0 HR/FB%, thanks to pitching in Yankee Stadium. This is because Tanaka was absolutely dominant before going down with an arm injury, as his K-BB% (22.1) was basically the same as former Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez’s (22.2), and his 13.4 SwStr% would’ve ranked third best in all of baseball (well ahead of King Felix). Tanaka was a top-100 fantasy player despite making just 20 starts. But he dealt with an elbow injury (a partially torn UCL) that wasn’t addressed through surgery during the offseason, so there’s obvious risk here (which has admittedly been reflected in his ADP). He’s boom-or-bust in 2015.
Dee Gordon: One of the biggest surprises last year, Gordon was a top-30 fantasy player while leading the majors in steals with 64 by a wide margin (next closest was 56. And stolen bases are very hard to come by in the National League). But Gordon had an anemic .300 OBP and .348 SLG after the All-Star break, when he posted a 47:4 K:BB ratio with a 67.7 SB% and recording just nine(!) RBI over 250 at-bats. He now joins a team that plays in a park that’s one of the toughest on left-handed hitters in all of baseball, so it’s hard to justify his ADP currently being higher than Matt Harvey’s.
Troy Tulowitzki: This is an obvious one. Tulowitzki has the upside to be the No. 1 fantasy player, as he was the No. 3 player on a per-game basis last season, and that’s not even factoring in him being shortstop eligible, which is arguably the shallowest position (catcher would surpass it in 2-C formats). Tulow is obviously a beast, and to put playing in Coors Field into perspective, it’s increased run scoring by 45 percent over the past three years. The next highest has been a tie between Chase Field and U.S. Cellular Field, which have boosted scoring by 10 percent. Of course, Tulowitzki plays a demanding defensive position, has missed an average of 74 games over the past three seasons and has played in 150 games just twice since he debuted in 2006.
Alex Cobb: He looked like an easy top-20 SP entering the year after posting a 15.0 K-BB% and a 10.5 SwStr% last year, with the added bonus of pitching in Tropicana Field and in front of what should once again be a strong Rays’ defense. But Cobb is dealing with a forearm injury, often a precursor for TJ surgery. He says he’s pain-free now and should be good to go a couple of weeks into the year, and he went as late as pick No. 193 in the recent Yahoo Friends & Family draft, so he’s an interesting gamble right now.
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George Springer: He posted a 20-45-51-5 line in fewer than 300 at-bats last season, when he was a top-45 fantasy player as a rookie. Springer hit 37 homers with 45 steals and a .303 BA while scoring 106 runs with 108 RBI in fewer than 500 ABs between Double and Triple-A as a 23-year-old the season before that. ZiPS projects 26 home runs and 17 stolen bases in just 113 games in 2015. But Springer also had a .231 BA last year after getting called up to Houston, thanks to an ugly 33.0 K% that would’ve tied for the highest in MLB had he qualified. I’m a fan of his upside and took him in the third round of the aforementioned Yahoo F&F league, but there’s obviously quite a bit of risk here for such an unproven player who swings and misses so often (Springer’s SwStr% last year was 18.2. Clayton Kershaw led all starters at 14.1%).
Anthony Rendon: He was a top-15 fantasy player last season despite being an afterthought in drafts. A former top prospect, Rendon has an extensive injury history (especially with his legs) and is currently dealing with a sprained MCL. He still owns a top-20 ADP in Yahoo leagues, and while that makes sense for someone who posted a .287-111-21-83-17 line last year, there’s serious risk here (although a full transition to playing third, where he hit better compared to when playing second, could also help his durability). The latest Rendon injury simply has to move Jose Altuve and Robinson Cano above him in 2B rankings, which will likely be the last year he’ll be eligible there.
Danny Salazar: He posted a 3.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with a ridiculous 23.7 K-BB% and 14.6 SwStr% (which would’ve led MLB by a wide margin last season) in 2013 as a rookie, which led to many hyping him in a big way (including myself). Instead, he pitched through an injury that resulted in decreased velocity (his average fastball went from 96.2 mph to 94.6) and a demotion to the minors after posting a 5.53 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over the first half. Seemingly healthier, he recorded a 73:18 K:BB ratio with a 3.50 ERA after rejoining the Indians after the All-Star break. Salazar’s ADP doesn’t necessarily represent massive risk, but his upside is through the roof, especially if Cleveland can improve even slightly on last year’s MLB-worst defense.
Ryan Braun: Between a PED suspension and injuries, it’s become increasingly tough what to make of Braun. He’s two years removed from being one of the very best players in baseball but is coming off a season in which he had his lowest BA (.266), OBP (.324) and SLG (.453) of his career. He’s approaching 32 years old, has been walking less and has been hitting more groundballs than ever of late. Still, the thumb injury is now apparently fully healed through surgery and good luck speculating on PED ramifications. Braun’s base running diminished in a major way last year, so maybe he’s truly in the decline phase, but as a recent former star, I wouldn’t fault anyone for spending a second round pick on him.
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