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Dissenting Opinions: Will the Buffalo backfield pay the Bills in Week 5?

How high will the Bills backfield fly in Week 5? (Getty)
How high will the Bills backfield fly in Week 5? (Getty)

Group-think can be an especially scary thing when it comes to fantasy football rankings. After all, the unpredictable nature of the NFL game is part of what makes fantasy football so popular, and why some people like to say that the NFL acronym stands for "No F****** Logic." But when one of our Yahoo fantasy football analysts veers particularly far away from the rankings consensus, our curious nature begs for an explanation. So, with that in mind, I've identified two players from our Week 5 rankings that our Yahoo analysts love/hate significantly more than the rest of us, and have asked them to explain their reasoning. I'll kick things off with a couple of my outliers:

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Love him: Fred Jackson, Buf, RB - Funston RB rank No. 15 (Yahoo rank No. 25)

Detroit isn't a great matchup for opposing running backs, but the Jets backfield managed to generate successful fantasy afternoons for Chris Ivory (10 points) and Chris Johnson (12.1 points) against the Lions in Week 4. And a RB similar to F-Jax in terms of versatility (and age), Rashad Jennings, netted 96 total yards against the Lions in Week 1. Jackson is averaging 65 receiving yards his past two games and, assuming the aerial avenue remains open for him this week, Jackson should have the yardage needed, paired with a TD that I think he scores, to finish as a top 15 fantasy running back.

Hate him: Doug Martin, TB, RB - Funston RB rank No. 31 (Yahoo No. 17)

I'm beyond shocked that each of my colleagues feels like Martin is worth a top 20 running back nomination this week. His 23 carries this season have produced a pathetic 2.1 yards per carry, and his three-yeard TD run last week sure looked like it was only made possible by a hold (that wasn't called but clearly should have been) from LT Anthony Collins. Admittedly, Martin's opponent, New Orleans, isn't the staunchest of run defenses, but I think the Saints kick the Buccaneers up and down the field in this one. At 1-3, it's desperation time for Drew Brees and company. And if the Saints jump out to a nice lead, there goes the Tampa Bay ground game.

BRAD EVANS

Love him: Bishop Sankey, Ten, RB - Evans RB rank No. 20  (Yahoo No. 28)

Straight from the horse’s mouth (Ken Whisenhunt), the rookie’s role is finally expected to extend beyond just garbage time touches. More versatile and effective than sack of potatoes, Shonn Greene, he has top-20 potential versus a Cleveland defense that’s allowed the second-most fantasy points to RBs. There’s 80-90 total yards, 1-2 TD potential here.

Hate him: C.J. Spiller, Buf, RB - Evans RB rank No. 37 (Yahoo No. 23)

What has C.J. done to warrant any confidence that he’s a sure-fire, weekly RB2? He’s splitting touches with Fred Jackson, surrendering red-zone carries and has surpassed the 10 fantasy point threshold once in four games. This week he travels to Detroit, with a new QB under center, to face a Lions D that’s given up just 3.42 yards per carry. I would rather swim Lake Superior in January than trust him as anything more than a FLEX option.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI

Love him: Sammy Watkins, Buf, WR - Pianowski WR rank No. 31  (Yahoo No. 39)

I'm surprised to be the lone wolf on Sammy Watkins, given that he's scored in two of three games and he's being fed plenty of targets (28 over the last three weeks). Of course a lot of those targets fell harmlessly to the turf, as EJ Manuel has been an absolute train wreck. But if new starter Kyle Orton can merely be adequate in the saddle, Watkins's production might take off. This could be the last week Watkins is on the start/sit fence.

The Lions secondary looks good on the spreadsheet, though Eric Decker posted 10.8 standard fantasy points against them. I'm expecting a similar day from Watkins. 

Will Colston's fall continue? (USAT)
Will Colston's fall continue? (USAT)

Hate him: Marques Colston, NO, WR - Pianowski WR rank No. 51 (Yahoo No. 35)

Marques Colston looks like one of the easiest stay-aways on the receiver board right now. He's finished well under his projected points in three straight games, including a targetless bagel at Cleveland in Week 2. A paltry 25 yards in Week 3 was bailed out by a touchdown, but that showing was no tour de force. His 10 targets last week at Dallas amounted to a piddly 50 yards, no score. We're talking about a ninth-year receiver coming off a modest 943-yard, five-score season. Gravity always wins.

I recognize the Bucs have been a coverage mess this season, but that sort of angle can trip you up, too. Sure, Antonio Brown and Julio Jones toasted the Tampa Bay secondary - but we're talking about Pro Bowl talents. Their success doesn't guarantee a thing for a fading star like Colston.

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ANDY BEHRENS

Love him: Jeremy Hill, Cin, RB – Behrens RB rank No. 20 (Yahoo No. 33)

A small part of the reason for my apparent bullishness on Hill is that I really don't love any running back this week, outside the top 10-12. I can find reasons to bench almost everyone. Hill is a gifted runner who's become a substantial piece of Cincinnati's rushing attack, and his matchup is not in any way intimidating. New England has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs, giving up big days to Knowshon Moreno, Lamar Miller, Matt Asiata, Knile Davis and Jamaal Charles. It would hardly be a surprise if both Gio and Jeremy found the end zone this week.
 
Hate him: Brian Quick, StL, WR – Behrens WR rank No. 38 (Yahoo No. 25)

Um ... what am I missing here? I like Quick well enough to use him myself in two deep leagues, and I consider him a viable WR3/flex. But it's not as if he's dominating targets in the Rams' passing attack. In fact, in his most recent game, he was tied for fifth on his team in targets. To me, he's a flier, not a rock-solid fantasy starter.

DALTON DEL DON

Love him: Pierre Garcon, Was, WR - Del Don WR rank No. 23 (Yahoo No. 32)

He's coming off a clunker against the Giants but saw 16 targets the week before. I don't love the matchup Monday night, but it's not like he'll line up against Richard Sherman all game. Kirk Cousins isn't as terrible as he looked last game, and Washington is down to its No. 3 tight end, so Garcon should once again be heavily involved in the offense.

Hate him: Eli Manning, NYG, QB - Del Don QB rank No. 16 (Yahoo No. 11)

He's been fantastic the last two games, and I'm buying the turnaround. This ranking is solely a reflection of how deep I view the quarterback position, not a knock on Manning at all. Maybe I should move him up a few spots, as the Falcons have allowed the second-highest YPA (8.6) this season, although that's been accompanied by a 3:2 TD:INT ratio over four games.