Daily Dime: With Coors iffy, stay indoors (Houston, Toronto) for Monday
A busy Monday slate, all tucked into the 7 pm ET and later block. Let’s get to it. Be sure to double-check those lineups and the weather (especially in Colorado).
Players to Buy
Dallas Keuchel, SP, vs. TEX (Detwiler), $8500: He’s just the No. 5 starting pitcher on the pricing board, but he’s the biggest Vegas favorite on the night (slipping past a road-starting Clayton Kershaw). That will work. Keuchel obviously is light on the strikeouts, but his efficiency allows him to work deep into games. And let’s give the guy credit for what he does exceptionally well – inducing ground-ball contact and weak contact. He’s on zero of my seasonal teams, which depresses the hell out of me. But I’ll have Keuchel dialed up for Monday DFS.
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Most of the Astros, vs. TEX (Detwiler): Some of the Houston bats have major platoon spikes against lefties. Some of them, surprisingly, do not (Carter and Springer come to mind). But any right-handed stick against Ross Detwiler this year instantly turns into Ted Williams, slashing .394/.459/.773. Yahtzee.
Head down to Minute Maid Park, sit in the Crawford Boxes, grab a beer, get ready for the onslaught. Evan Gattis and Jake Marisnick both look like fun for $3400, and Chris Carter at $2400 feels like a forced play. Jose Altuve is a reasonable pay-up against almost anyone. Any night can turn into The Springer Show.
Kevin Kiermaier, OF, at BOS (Buchholz), $2300: He’s plugged into the leadoff spot, has a nifty career line against righties (.857 OPS), is dirt cheap. The Fenway Park backdrop also helps.
Carlos Martinez, SP, vs. CHC (Wood), $8400: I love paying for a second-tier ace over the through-the-nose guys, even with the softer pricing that’s around right now. Busch Stadium is a pitcher-friendly backdrop, and as much as I respect the Chicago lineup on paper, it is first in strikeout rate and a mere 22nd in runs.
Matt Holliday, OF, vs. CHC (Wood), $3500: The price is a daisy and Holliday owns the matchup against Travis Wood, as you’d suspect (1.194 OPS, four homers in 40 at-bats). Johnny Peralta ($2500) and Mark Reynolds ($2200) are other right-handed sticks to consider, all slotted right after Holliday in the lineup.
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, at TOR (Dickey), $4200: If we lose the Coors game, the Rogers Centre becomes the new epicenter for Monday offense. Ellsbury is hitting .475 with six steals over his last 10 games, and R.A. Dickey hasn’t been sharp all year.
Steven Vogt, at MIN (Hughes), $3000: While the price has corrected on fellow Swinging-A Josh Reddick (now 3.9 K), the Vogt of Confidence is a mere three-grand. Catcher has been a bunch of land mines thus far, but Vogt rarely disappoints us.
L.A. Lefties, at MIL (Lohse): They were cranking the ball over the fence left and right at Chavez Ravine, and have to figure some of that will continue on the road against an ordinary Kyle Lohse. If you’re priced out of Joc Pederson ($3900), that’s fine – give a look to Andre Ethier ($2800) or Jimmy Rollins ($2700). Adrian Gonzalez is a perfectly reasonable pay-up play at $4300.
The Reluctant Fades
Diamondbacks and Rockies: Look, I am not a weatherman. I don’t know how to do a rain dance. I don’t worship any sun gods. All I know is the weather forecast is nasty for Coors Field on Monday night, and the prices on those guys just went up anyway. As usual, wait as long as you can before committing to anything. My early-lock lineups will not have any Arizona and Colorado players unless something substantially changes.
Madison Bumgarner, SP, vs. SD, $9800: Until I see vintage Bumgarner back in the game, I’m not going to cut a big DFS check on him. Strikeouts and ground balls are down, and he is coming off that 270-inning marathon. And the Padres, for once, have a lineup (and a righty-heavy lineup) that can hurt you.
