We have 11 games to choose from on Thursday, with a collection of sketchy pitchers on the mound. Let's find some friendly matchups. As always, check the weather before you leave the house.
Nick Castellanos, 3B, vs. Tex (Perez), $13: Castellanos is 8-for-21 over his last five games and he's coming off a two-homer performance at Wrigley on Thursday. He'll face a left-handed starter on Thursday, and that's been a nice pairing all season — his OPS against lefties is .981 for the year (.628 vs. RHPs).
Welington Castillo, C, at Cin (Lamb), $16: After sitting on Wednesday, Castillo should be good to go against Lamb. For his career, Beef has slashed .297/.369/.486 against LHPs (.238/.305/.393 vs. RHPs), so the matchup clearly works. Stacking D-backs seems like a decent play on Thursday.
Patrick Corbin, P, at Cin (Lamb), $46: Corbin is coming off a useful start (6.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 8 Ks) and his team is a pretty clear favorite here. Lamb was shaky in his first start (6.0 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 7 Ks); I'm not expecting him to shut down Arizona's bats here, either.
Jake Arrieta, P, vs. Atl (Foltynewicz), $50: The Cubs are a massive favorite here (-270), largely because the pitching matchup so obviously favors Chicago. Arrieta has been ridiculous all season, and particularly dominant since the all-star break: 4-1, 1.56 ERA, 40.1 IP, 40 Ks. Atlanta is dead-last in the National League in run-scoring and slugging, so no great worries there.
Cubs LHBs, C-1B-2B-LF-CF, vs. Atl (Foltynewicz), various prices: Foltynewicz has been hammered by LHBs this season, both in the minors and the bigs. At Triple-A, left-handed hitters slashed .271/.354/.447 against him. In the majors, it's .333/.373/.583 with eight homers and 13 doubles in 156 at-bats. Thus, I'm rolling out some lineups that look like the one over there on the right -->
Schwarber certainly isn't cheap ($21), but he might just be worth it. Coghlan has hit all 14 of his home runs and all but one of his XBHs against right-handers this year. He seems like a steal at $14.
Xander Bogaerts, SS, vs. KC (Duffy), $17: Continuing our theme, Bogaerts has just absolutely crushed left-handers this year: .390/.433/.517, 46-for-118, 10 XBHs. He's not exactly a bargain on Thursday, but this matchup really seems like a layup.
Jason Kipnis, 2B, at NYY (Nova), $15: I'm happy to take the post-injury discount here, considering the quality of the player. Nova is a perfectly hittable pitcher — 4.17 ERA over his last seven starts — so he certainly shouldn't scare you away from Kipnis.