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Justin Phan

Court Report: Week 15 Dashboard, Part II

Justin Phan
Roto Arcade

Each Sunday, the Dashboard centralizes all the crucial information fantasy managers need to dominate their weekly head-to-head matchups or climb the standings in their rotisserie leagues. The Dashboard covers schedule analysis, status updates, adds, drops, watch list candidates, and deep league targets for managers of all skill levels. Quite simply, it is a comprehensive weekly cheat sheet that is packed with so much information that we’ve devoted two writers to producing it.

Add List - players currently owned in less than 40% of Yahoo! leagues

Marcin Gortat(notes), C, PHO (37% owned)
Gortat has scored 16 or more points just six times in his four-year career. Three of those instances have come in the last two weeks. Let’s play this game again, only this time it gets a bit weirder. Gortat has pulled down 13 or more rebounds, again, just six times in his four-year career. And again, exactly three of those occurrences have come in the past two weeks. During that stretch, Gortat has averaged 13.5 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks on 63 percent shooting, good for a spot in the top-20. He’s played about 25 minutes a game in that two-week span to Robin Lopez’s(notes) 15, a clear indication that Lopez is nothing more than a paper starter at this point. There isn’t anything particularly surprising about Gortat’s recent play, given that he’s always been a very capable producer on a per-minute level. He’s just getting a steady diet of minutes for the first time in his career and it’s been paying clear dividends. It’s completely unrealistic to expect him to continue posting top-20 value, but somewhere in the 65-75 range seems about right moving forward.

Chuck Hayes(notes), FC, HOU (30% owned)
Progress! The Chuckwagon has exactly doubled in capacity since the Week 14 edition of the Dashboard to a more respectable 30 percent, though it really should be closer to 85 percent full at this point. We’ll take what we can get though. The amount of times I’ve endorsed Hayes here reminds me of one on my favorite Michael Scott-isms. But how can I not? He’s been one of those must-own glue guy types for just about the entire season, putting up top-50 production for the past two months and posting top-25 value over the last month. I get why he’s a bit undervalued initially, standing at just 6’6 and boasting a career scoring average of just 3.9 points per game (and one of the ugliest free-throw shot forms in the league). But he does everything else, and is now starting to get back to posting one of the highest steal rates for his position. Let’s go through his resume once more: he’s a plus rebounder for his position with a rebound rate of 15.3 percent (impressive given his size disadvantage), is fourth in assist rate amongst centers at 23.1 percent, and is the one of the better team defenders out there (48th in the NBA in unadjusted defensive rating). He also led the Rockets in adjusted plus-minus last season, proving that his impact extends far beyond the box score in a Shane Battier(notes), Moneyball-esque sort of way. Look past the points and threes and you’ll see that he’s contributed everywhere else over the past month, namely rebounds (9.7 per 36 minutes), steals (1.9 per 36 minutes), and field-goal percentage (66%). He’s locked in as the Rockets’ starting center and will get as many minutes as he can handle with one of the lower foul rates for his position (3.8 per 36 minutes). Roster him with confidence and expect nothing less than top-50 production moving forward.

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C.J. Miles(notes), GF, UTA (35% owned)
Miles is still a bit erratic on a game-to-game basis and appears to be cemented to a bench role that limits him to an upwards of 26-28 minutes a game, but he’s managed to put up top-90 value just about every step of the way as has shown recent flashes of legitimate two-three, two-steal potential. His field-goal percentage, one of his two categorical weaknesses (rebounds being the other) has started to normalize and has steadily improved month-by-month – 40% in November, 42% in December, 45% in January. There’s still a lot of room for growth here, and keep in mind that he really started to take off in the second half (and in the playoffs)

Ersan Ilyasova(notes), F, MIL (16% owned)
The same concerns apply here – a good amount of his value is invested in his low turnover total, and he’s taking (and making) less threes in favor of long twos this season. He’s posted top-50 value over the past month nonetheless, with the value spike coming from two areas: an improved ability to find the ball on the defensive end, and a marked spike in his shooting efficiency. Ilyasova has racked up at least one steal in 22 of his 45 games this season, proving that his recent spike is far from fluky, and has upped his shooting percentage by almost 10 percent in the month of January because of his aforementioned preference for long twos. Last year a third of his attempts were threes and 24 percent of them were long twos; this year those proportions have been flipped to 26 and 31 percent, respectively. Considering he’s shooting 28 percent from three and 43 percent on long twos, it’s no surprise why he’s shot 50 percent this month (a bit high, but still a vast improvement). Drew Gooden(notes) has missed 14 of the last 19 games due to plantar fasciitis, and remains far from a sure bet health-wise moving forward. All the better for Ilyasova as he remains a fixture in the Bucks’ starting lineup.

Cut List - players who should not be rostered in standard formats

Gilbert Arenas(notes) (81% owned), Mo Williams(notes) (77% owned), Shawn Marion(notes) (66% owned), Carl Landry(notes) (65% owned), Andris Biedrins(notes) (62% owned), Ben Gordon(notes) (62% owned), Richard Jefferson(notes) (61% owned), Chris Kaman(notes) (55% owned), Brandon Roy(notes) (54% owned), Ron Artest(notes) (52% owned), Glen Davis(notes) (52% owned), Tyrus Thomas(notes) (49% owned), Drew Gooden (44% owned), Evan Turner(notes) (41% owned)

Watch List - players currently owned in less than 40% of Yahoo! leagues to monitor closely in standard leagues

Greg Monroe(notes), FC, DET (35% owned)
The frontcourt rotation of Monroe, Austin Daye(notes), Chris Wilcox(notes), and Ben Wallace(notes) likely means Monroe’s days of seeing 35-40 minutes a game are over. That obviously puts his status as a top-75 option at serious risk, but it doesn’t mean he’ll suddenly drop off the map either. Re-adjust those projections to around 10 points, 8 rebounds, and a steal. That may very well drop him out of the top-100, but he’ll still be plenty useful, even to those in standard-sized leagues.

DeJuan Blair(notes), FC, SA (35% owned)
Consistency remains the name of the game here. He’ll go off for 20/10 one night only to follow it up with a disappointing 5/4 line. Blair has shown marked improvement over the past two weeks in four areas: rebounds, steals, blocks, and field-goal percentage – mostly a product of a nice six-minute bump in his minutes. If he can learn to curb his foul rate and stay on the floor for more than 25 minutes on average, there’s top-75 potential to be had here. Otherwise, he’ll remain on the outside of the top-100 looking in.

Kurt Thomas(notes), FC, CHI (9% owned)
Still doing it at the age of 38. With Taj Gibson(notes) continuing to underwhelm (and now dealing with an ankle injury) and Joakim Noah(notes) still a few weeks away, Thomas will continue to provide a healthy dose of traditional big-man stats. 7.5 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, and a shooting percentage in the low-to-mid 60s are completely within reach.

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Tracy McGrady(notes), GF, DET (39% owned)
We’re not quite partying like it’s 2002, but this is undoubtedly some of the best basketball McGrady has played in years. He’s assumed the role of the Pistons’ facilitator on the offensive end and rightfully so (leads the team in assist rate) and has gotten dangerously close to a triple-double on several occasions. He’s a good source of dimes in your in need and can give you about a block per game, but is generally underwhelming beyond that. Ride the hot streak while it lasts, but it shouldn’t be much longer until he’s back posting top-135 type value.

Wes Johnson(notes), GF, MIN (35% owned)
While the minutes of Corey Brewer(notes) and Martell Webster(notes) continue to fluctuate, Wes has seen his role stabilize into a steady 30-minute role as the Wolves’ sixth man. He’s been plenty productive over the past four games, averaging 16.3 points, 2.3 threes, 1.3 steals, and 0.8 blocks in 30.3 minutes of action. It’s a bit of a hot streak, no doubt, but it’s a sneak peak at the multi-category impact he can offer if he can get over his bouts of inconsistency.

Rodrigue Beaubois(notes), G, DAL (6% owned)
It’s time for deeper-league owners to pounce and stash, as he’s targeting an early-to-mid February return. His per-minute exploits have been well-documented – amongst qualifiers (20+ games, 10+ minutes per game), Beaubois finished 14th in per-minute value last season. The guys ahead of him: LeBron James(notes), Kevin Durant(notes), Dirk Nowitzki(notes), Chris Paul(notes), Greg Oden(notes), Manu Ginobili(notes), Danny Granger(notes), Tim Duncan(notes), Dwyane Wade(notes), Troy Murphy(notes), Channing Frye(notes), David Lee(notes), and Chris Bosh(notes). The Mavs could certainly use the instant offense he’ll provide as they’ve fallen to just 11th in offensive efficiency. There’s big-time potential to be had here, and an 85th percentile projection would put Beaubois somewhere in the top-40. He’s a perfect example of a low risk, high reward investment.

Others to consider: Rudy Fernandez(notes), SG, POR (19% owned), Austin Daye, SG, SF, PF, DET (9% owned), Carlos Delfino(notes), GF, MIL (31% owned), Tony Allen(notes), GF, MEM (6% owned), Mike Miller(notes), GF, MIA (39% owned), Randy Foye(notes), G, LAC (15% owned), Josh McRoberts(notes), FC, IND (7% owned), Marcus Thornton(notes), SG, NO (29% owned), Omri Casspi(notes), GF, SAC (18% owned), Jared Dudley(notes), SG, SF, PF, PHO (22% owned)

Deep League Specials players currently owned in five percent or less of Yahoo! leagues who warrant a roster spot in deep leagues (14 teams+)

Paul George(notes) (5% owned), Joel Anthony(notes) (5% owned), Dante Cunningham(notes) (2% owned), Jeff Foster(notes) (3% owned), Ryan Gomes(notes) (5% owned), Joey Graham(notes) (1% owned)

Additional notes: Reluctantly added Gomes to this list. Don’t read much into his recent rank (82 over the past two weeks, 44 over the past week). He’s on what will be a short-lived hot streak from the field, his value is being inflated by a low turnover total, and he’s doing this all without Eric Gordon(notes) (wrist) in the lineup … Anthony has the potential to win you blocks in a given week on his own. He continues to send shots away at a high rate, with five in Sunday’s win against the Thunder. Now if he didn’t have bricks for hands … The list is a little skim this week, but these are the only guys that I would personally add in 14-16 team leagues. The rest are maddeningly inconsistent and/or aren’t good bets to sustain their value long-term.

Spark Plugs – players with a set of especially favorable matchups this week who make for excellent short-term plays

Your Grizzlies – ORL, @MIN, CLE, @HOU
Categorical breakdown: points (5th), threes (2nd), rebounds (t-7th), assists (3rd), steals (2nd), blocks (8th), FG% (5th), turnovers (8th)
Players of interest: Zach Randolph(notes), Marc Gasol(notes), Rudy Gay(notes), Tony Allen, Mike Conley(notes)

Your Bucks, especially guards – @LAC, @PHO, @GSW, DET
Categorical breakdown: points (2nd), threes (7th), rebounds (3rd), assists (2nd), steals (3rd), FG% (2nd)
Players of interest: John Salmons(notes), Corey Maggette(notes)

Your Blazers – SAS, @DEN, @IND, @CLE
Categorical breakdown: points (8th), threes (t-3rd), rebounds (2nd), assists (8th), blocks (2nd), turnovers (t-9th)
Players of interest: LaMarcus Aldridge(notes), Wesley Matthews(notes)

Your Heat – CLE, @ORL, @CHA, LAC
Categorical breakdown: threes (1st), steals (7th), blocks (7th), turnovers (1st)
Players of interest: LeBron James, Mario Chalmers(notes), Eddie House(notes), Joel Anthony, James Jones(notes)

Other extreme values…
Pacers FG% (1st) – Paul George, Josh McRoberts, Tyler Hansbrough(notes)
Jazz blocks (3rd) – Al Jefferson(notes), Andrei Kirilenko(notes)
Hawks points (4th) / FG% (3rd) – Al Horford(notes), Joe Johnson(notes)
T’Wolves blocks (1st) / FG% (4th) – Darko Milicic(notes)
76ers points (3rd) / rebounds (1st) – Elton Brand(notes)
Rockets threes (5th) – Kevin Martin(notes), Kyle Lowry(notes), Aaron Brooks(notes)

Note: The Bulls have the second best weekly schedule behind the Grizzlies, but have been omitted because they are one of four teams with only two games in Week 15.

Short Circuits – players with a set of unfavorable matchups who have a good chance of struggling this week

Your Kings – BOS, SAS
One of four teams with two games in Week 15
Categorical breakdown: points (27th), threes (29th), rebounds (30th), assists (30th), steals (25th), blocks (23rd), FG% (28th), turnovers (29th)
Players of interest: Tyreke Evans(notes), Beno Udrih(notes), DeMarcus Cousins(notes), Omri Casspi, Samuel Dalembert(notes), Jason Thompson(notes)

Your Warriors, especially guards – MIL, CHI
Categorical breakdown: points (30th), threes (30th), rebounds (23rd), assists (29th), steals (30th), FG% (30th)
Players of interest: Stephen Curry(notes), Monta Ellis(notes), Dorell Wright(notes), David Lee

Your Clippers – MIL, CHI, @ATL, @MIA
Categorical breakdown: points (29th), threes (t-26th), rebounds (24th), assists (28th), steals (28th), blocks (26th), FG% (29th)
Players of interest: Blake Griffin(notes), Baron Davis(notes), DeAndre Jordan(notes)

Your Wizards – @DAL, @NOR, ORL, ATL
Categorical breakdown: points (28th), threes (24th), rebounds (29th), assists (27th), steals (27th), blocks (29th), FG% (27th)
Players of interest: Rashard Lewis(notes), Andray Blatche(notes), JaVale McGee(notes), John Wall(notes), Nick Young(notes)

Your Suns, especially guards – MIL, OKC
Categorical breakdown: threes (t-26th), steals (29th)
Players of interest: Vince Carter(notes), Channing Frye

Your Magic – @MEM, MIA, @WAS, @BOS
Categorical breakdown: points (23rd), assists (22nd), blocks (25th), FG% (25th), turnovers (30th)
Players of interest: Dwight Howard(notes), Hedo Turkoglu(notes), Jameer Nelson(notes)

Other extreme values…
Knicks threes (t-26th) / blocks (27th) – Danilo Gallinari(notes), Wilson Chandler(notes), Shawne Williams(notes)
Celtics blocks (28th) – Shaquille O’Neal(notes), Kendrick Perkins(notes)
Mavericks turnovers (27th) – Jason Kidd(notes)

Additional notes: A reminder that the schedule analysis in the previous two sections is based on an eight-category format, with FT% excluded because how well a player shoots from the line is not dependent on the team he faces. The players of interest who are listed for each team are ones who have a significant amount of value vested in the categories listed in the breakdown. These players are the ones that have the most to gain/lose depending on their weekly slate of opponents. For reference, "points (3rd)" means that the teams’ slate of opponents collectively allows the third most points in the given week.

Programming note: We'll be hitting on everything Warriors-related in the Tuesday Q&A chat with special guest Ethan Sherwood Strauss from Warriorsworld.net and Hoopspeak.com. Look for it at the regularly-scheduled time of 5pm PT, 8pm ET.

Follow Justin on Twitter @jphanned

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photos via Getty Images

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