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Justin Phan

Court Report: Week 14 Dashboard, Part II

Justin Phan
Roto Arcade

Each Sunday, the Dashboard centralizes all the crucial information fantasy managers need to dominate their weekly head-to-head matchups or climb the standings in their rotisserie leagues. The Dashboard covers schedule analysis, status updates, adds, drops, watch list candidates, and deep league targets for managers of all skill levels. Quite simply, it is a comprehensive weekly cheat sheet that is packed with so much information that we’ve devoted two writers to producing it.

Add List - players currently owned in less than 40% of Yahoo! leagues

Chuck Hayes(notes), FC, HOU (15% owned)
Every team, whether in reality or the fantasy realm, could use a guy like Chuck Hayes. Standing at just 6’6 and boasting a career scoring average of 3.9 points per game, almost everything about him will underwhelm you initially. Until you dig a little deeper. Hayes has never been much of a scorer, noted by his aforementioned scoring average, but is above-average in almost every other respect. He’s a plus rebounder for his position with a rebound rate of 15.6 percent (impressive given his size disadvantage), is fourth in assist rate amongst centers at 22.9 percent, and is the one of the better team defenders out there (47th in the NBA in unadjusted defensive rating). His steal rate has dipped a bit, but he’s still 15th in steal rate for his position. It should then come as no big surprise that Hayes led the Rockets in adjusted plus-minus last season, or that he’s posted top-40 value since returning from an ankle injury that sidelined him for two weeks. Look past the points and threes and you’ll see that he contributes everywhere else, namely rebounds (9.8 per 36 minutes) and field-goal percentage (55.8%). He’s locked in as the Rockets’ starting center and will get as many minutes as he can handle with one of the lower foul rates for his position (4.2 per 40 minutes). Roster him with confidence and expect nothing less than top-75 production moving forward.

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Marcin Gortat(notes), C, PHO (24% owned)
Robin Lopez(notes) is starting to run out of lives, and has managed to play even worse in January than he did in December. I know, I didn’t think it was possible either. Lopez’s prolonged decline is all the better for Gortat, who is seeing the first major run of his career. That isn’t just an expression either. Prior to December and January, Gortat had never seen more than 15 minutes a game over a full month in his four-year career. He is now seeing 20 minutes on the regular with an upwards of 35 on some nights. Gortat has always been an apt per-minute producer, with the potential to hit big in three areas: rebounds, blocks, and field-goal percentage. Over the past week he has done just that, coming in at 32nd in per-game value with 11.5 rebounds and a block on 58 percent shooting. Lopez’s designation as a starter is nothing more than a formality at this point, with the bulk of the minutes going to Gortat in the end. One thing worth noting is Gortat’s miniscule foul rate (3.7 per 40 minutes) – just one less obstacle standing in his way to major minutes.

Rudy Fernandez(notes), SG, POR (17% owned)
The obvious takeaway when Marcus Camby(notes) went down with a partial meniscus tear was that Joel Przybilla(notes) and Dante Cunningham(notes) would see more minutes, which makes sense given that they are the two backups behind LaMarcus Aldridge(notes) and Camby. But what was vastly understated was the Blazers’ ability to go small with Aldridge at center, and do so with great success. Keep in mind that the best five-man unit in the NBA in terms of adjusted plus/minus featured Nicolas Batum(notes) and Aldridge at the 4 and 5 spots. Yes, that lineup had Brandon Roy(notes) at the off-guard, but the underlying message still holds true. Rudy has seen a significant bump in his minutes with Camby out, going from 20.9 minutes in the 10 games prior to 30.5 over the last four. He was extremely effective running the point in place of Andre Miller(notes) during Saturday’s win, and could end up absorbing some of Patty Mills’(notes) backup point minutes moving forward as well. Saturday’s 11-point effort makes it four-straight double-digit scoring outputs for Rudy, a stretch that has seen him post top-five per-game value with averages of 13.5 points, 2.3 threes, 4.5 assists, and 3.0 steals. Tres gafas para todos!

Mike Miller(notes), GF, MIA (35% owned)
His resume over the past four seasons speaks for itself: first amongst all wing players in true shooting percentage (60.4%), second in three-point percentage (41.8%), and fourth in field-goal percentage (48.3%). We all know what he can do, but entering Saturday’s contest none of that really mattered as he was mired in a shooting slump, having made just six of his last 28 shots. The problem stemmed from his unwillingness to shoot the ball, something he had to start doing in order to rediscover his stroke and get into some sort of rhythm. He did just that in Saturday’s win against the Raptors, almost doubling his shot attempts total from his previous 10 games en route to an impressive 32 points, 10 rebounds, and six threes. His 12-for-20 performance upped his field-goal percentage by 17 percentage points alone, from 21 to 38 percent. It was just what he needed to light that fire under him and kick start what has been a highly disappointing season thus far, especially by his standards. His recent eruption did come without Dwyane Wade(notes) (migraine) and Chris Bosh(notes) (ankle), but it should be taken as a positive sign nonetheless.

Cut List - players who should not be rostered in standard formats

Gilbert Arenas(notes) (83% owned), Mo Williams(notes) (82% owned), Rodney Stuckey(notes) (81% owned), DeMarcus Cousins(notes) (79% owned), J.J. Hickson(notes) (71% owned), Shawn Marion(notes) (67% owned), Charlie Villanueva(notes) (63% owned), Richard Jefferson(notes) (63% owned), Ben Gordon(notes) (58% owned), Tyrus Thomas(notes) (58% owned), Chris Kaman(notes) (57% owned), Thaddeus Young(notes) (56% owned), Louis Williams(notes) (49% owned), Evan Turner(notes) (41% owned), James Harden(notes) (40% owned), Robin Lopez (40% owned)

Additional notes: Inefficiency kills.

Watch List - players currently owned in less than 40% of Yahoo! leagues to monitor closely in standard leagues

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Ramon Sessions(notes), G, CLE (39% owned)
Though he’s currently dealing with a right abdominal strain of his own, which could sideline him for a few games, things are dire as ever in Cleveland with the team scrambling to find production from wherever they can possibly find it. Anderson Varejao(notes) is out for the season with a torn tendon in his right ankle, and Mo Williams will miss a couple weeks with moderate inflammation in his hip flexor. I’m not going to overstate Sessions’ value here – it doesn’t extend much further than points, assists, steals, and free-throw percentage (though that last part is debatable). He’s a fringe top-100 guy even with a steady diet of minutes because of his non-existent contributions in threes, rebounds, and blocks, as well as his low shooting percentage and relatively high turnover total. You can’t help but notice the 20-point, 10-assist potential he’s recently flashed though, and there’s no doubt that he will have a prominent role in that offense and some semblance of long-term value moving forward.

Marcus Thornton(notes), SG, NOR (27% owned)
In the four games this month where he has played more than 20 minutes, Thornton has averaged 17 points, two treys, six rebounds, and a steal on 56 percent shooting. It’s really that simple, and there’s no need to continue to belabor the point that he needs to start ahead of Marco Belinelli(notes) – more on that here. I’m not exactly sure how to proceed, given that I don’t want to jinx what he has going for him right now, so I’ll just re-direct you to his game log, move on, and hope we continue to see more of the same in the future.

Carlos Delfino(notes), GF, MIL (23% owned)
Exercise some caution here, even though he’s back to game action after being out since Nov. 6 because of a concussion. This is one of the guys that Matt Buser and I disagree on – where he sees a nice add-low opportunity, I see a player with clear two-to-three category limitations. The potential with respect to threes (2+) and steals (1.5+) are solid, but beyond that he’s been below-average just about everywhere else and is a major drag on your field-goal percentage (38.5). He’s better suited for deeper 14+ team leagues and more of a specialist type in standard leagues if you’re in real need of threes and steals.

DeJuan Blair(notes), FC, SAS (34% owned)
Consistency is the name of the game here. He’ll tease you with his 20-10 potential one game only to disappoint you with a 5-4 line the next. His foul rate is problematic, as he averages a foul every eight minutes he’s on the court. A recent knee injury to Matt Bonner(notes) has opened up some more minutes for Blair, but once Bonner returns expect Popovich to return to his four-man rotation featuring Tim Duncan(notes), Blair, Bonner, and Antonio McDyess(notes). Like Delfino he’s more of a specialist add in standard leagues for those in need of rebounds and steals.

Ronny Turiaf(notes), FC, NYK (12% owned)
Mike D’Antoni has been a bit erratic with his starting lineup this month, having inserted and removed Turiaf on six separate occasions. Though his production has obviously benefited when he’s played with the first unit, Turiaf has remained productive on a per-minute basis with excellent contributions in blocks (2.4 per 36 minutes) and field-goal percentage (career-high 63.4% percent).

Ersan Ilyasova(notes), F, MIL (15% owned)
Be careful not to overpay here as his rank is being largely inflated by his low turnover total. His rank over the past two weeks goes from 102 to 134 when you move to an eight-category format. The rebounds, steals, and free-throw percentage impact are nice, but he’s lost some of his luster having hit only two threes in the past seven games.

Jared Dudley(notes), SG, SF, PF, PHO (23% owned)
I’m still a believer. He’s been much better at home than on the road this season, and with the Suns’ concluding their five-game road trip on Monday and about to embark on a five-game home stand, there’s still plenty for deeper league owners to be optimistic about.

Others to consider: Sasha Vujacic(notes), SG, NJ (10% owned), Ed Davis(notes), FC, TOR (9% owned), Mario Chalmers(notes), PG, MIA (8% owned), Kurt Thomas(notes), FC, CHI (7% owned)

Deep League Specials – players currently owned in five percent or less of Yahoo! leagues who warrant a roster spot in deep leagues (14 teams+)

Earl Boykins(notes) (5% owned), Nazr Mohammed(notes) (5% owned), Tony Allen(notes) (5% owned), Jeff Foster(notes) (5% owned), Eddie House(notes) (4% owned), Peja Stojakovic(notes) (4% owned), Dante Cunningham (2% owned), Paul George(notes) (2% owned)

Additional notes: There are a number of guys who were omitted because of their largely underwhelming per-minute impact – Manny Harris(notes) (317), Nenad Krstic(notes) (219), Nick Collison(notes) (213), Gordon Hayward(notes) (348), and Joel Anthony(notes) (274) … After scoring 54 points in a pair of games earlier this month, Chris Douglas-Roberts(notes) has scored 21 in the six games since … The three-week timetable for Marcus Camby seems extremely generous, given that it’s unlikely a player at his age would be able to recover from a torn meniscus that quickly. Camby owners should count on that timetable being closer to a month, maybe more. Joel Przybilla and Cunningham will post about the same type of fringe top-150 value with Camby sidelined. The minutes have been divided just about evenly – Przybilla has averaged 23 minutes over the past three games; Cunningham has averaged 24 … With Danilo Gallinari(notes) back from a knee injury, you can hardly count on Shawne Williams(notes) and/or Bill Walker(notes) on a consistent basis. Walker has averaged 16 minutes per game since Gallo’s return; Williams has averaged 11.

Spark Plugs – players with a set of especially favorable matchups this week who make for excellent short-term plays

Your Bobcats – @SAC, @PHO, @GSW, @LAC
Categorical breakdown: points (2nd), threes (6th), rebounds (5th), assists (2nd), steals (2nd), FG% (3rd)
Players of interest: D.J. Augustin(notes), Stephen Jackson(notes), Boris Diaw(notes)

Your 76ers – PHO, @TOR, MEM, DEN
Categorical breakdown: points (3rd), threes (3rd), assists (6th), steals (7th), blocks (2nd), FG% (3rd)
Players of interest: Jrue Holiday(notes), Andre Iguodala(notes)

Your Jazz, especially guards – @LAL, SAS, MIN, @GSW
Categorical breakdown: points (8th), threes (5th), rebounds (7th), assists (1st), steals (1st)
Players of interest: Deron Williams(notes)

Your Hornets – OKC, @GSW, @SAC, @PHO
Categorical breakdown: points (1st), rebounds (1st), assists (3rd), steals (5th), FG% (1st)
Players of interest: Chris Paul(notes), David West(notes), Emeka Okafor(notes), Trevor Ariza(notes)

Your Nuggets – @WAS, @DET, @CLE, @PHI
Categorical breakdown: threes (7th), rebounds (t-3rd), assists (4th), FG% (5th)
Players of interest: Nene Hilario(notes), Chauncey Billups(notes), Al Harrington(notes), Ty Lawson(notes), Arron Afflalo(notes)

Your Celtics, especially guards – CLE, @POR, PHO, @LAL
Categorical breakdown: threes (1st), assists (5th), FG% (7th)
Players of interest: Paul Pierce(notes), Rajon Rondo(notes), Ray Allen(notes)

Other extreme values…
Rockets threes (2nd) / steals (3rd) – Kevin Martin(notes), Aaron Brooks(notes)
Wizards points (5th) – Nick Young(notes), John Wall(notes), Andray Blatche(notes)
Nets blocks (1st) – Brook Lopez(notes), Kris Humphries(notes)
T’Wolves FG% (6th) – Darko Milicic(notes)
Bucks turnovers (3rd) – Andrew Bogut(notes), John Salmons(notes), Corey Maggette(notes)
Spurs points (4th) / rebounds (2nd) / steals (4th) – Manu Ginobili(notes), Tony Parker(notes), DeJuan Blair
Heat FG% (2nd) – Joel Anthony
Mavericks turnovers (1st) – Jason Kidd(notes), Shawn Marion, Jason Terry(notes)
Hawks rebounds (t-3rd) – Al Horford(notes), Josh Smith(notes)

Short Circuits – players with a set of unfavorable matchups who have a good chance of struggling this week

Your Blazers, especially guards – SAC, BOS
Only team with two games in Week 14
Categorical breakdown: points (24th), threes (30th), rebounds (t-26th), assists (30th), steals (26th), turnovers (30th)
Players of interest: Wesley Matthews(notes), Andre Miller, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Fernandez

Your Lakers – UTA, SAC, BOS
Categorical breakdown: threes (26th), rebounds (t-24th), assists (29th), turnovers (29th)
Players of interest: Lamar Odom(notes), Ron Artest(notes), Derek Fisher(notes)

Your Suns – @PHI, @CHA, BOS, NOR
Categorical breakdown: points (30th), threes (t-21st), rebounds (29th), assists (27th), steals (27th), FG% (28th)
Players of interest: Steve Nash(notes), Vince Carter(notes), Grant Hill(notes)

Your Pacers – ORL, NJN, @CHI
Categorical breakdown: points (28th), threes (28th), rebounds (28th), assists (26th), FG% (30th)
Players of interest: Danny Granger(notes), Darren Collison(notes)

Your Bulls – MIL, ORL, IND
Categorical breakdown: points (27th), threes (27th), assists (28th), steals (30th), FG% (29th)
Players of interest: Derrick Rose(notes), Carlos Boozer(notes), Luol Deng(notes)

Other extreme values…
Knicks blocks (30th) – Amar’e Stoudemire(notes), Ronny Turiaf, Wilson Chandler(notes)
Kings points (29th) / rebounds (30th) – DeMarcus Cousins, Carl Landry(notes), Jason Thompson(notes)
Cavs rebounds (t-26th) – J.J. Hickson
Bucks threes (29th) – John Salmons, Keyon Dooling(notes), Carlos Delfino

Additional notes: A reminder that the schedule analysis in the previous two sections is based on an eight-category format, with FT% excluded because how well a player shoots from the line is not dependent on the team that he faces. The players of interest who are listed for each team are ones who have a significant amount of value vested in the categories listed in the breakdown. These players are the ones that have the most to gain/lose depending on their weekly slate of opponents.

Follow Justin on Twitter @jphanned

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photos via Getty Images

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