Closing Time: Zack Greinke, guaranteed no-hitters, and outliers
Back in the middle of 1990, the wacky Seattle Mariners came up with a fresh promotional idea: Guaranteed No-Hitter Night. If the June 16 game between the Rangers and the Mariners didn’t produce a no-hitter, all fans in attendance received a free ticket to a future game.
The timing seemed right. Nolan Ryan, fresh off his sixth career no-no, was pitching for the Rangers. Seattle had the second-worst offense in the American League that year. Alas, no one threw a no-hitter that evening, and Mariners lefty Matt Young wound up stealing the show with a three-hit gem. (Guaranteed Shutout Night doesn't generate the same buzz.)
This week would have been a logical point for the 2015 Mets to dust off Seattle’s promotion. New York has the worst offense in the National League, and it was in line to face two of the best pitchers around, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. To make matters worse, the current version of the Mets lineup is especially putrid. John Mayberry Jr. is your cleanup hitter? Do the Mets have Internet access?
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Kershaw did what everyone expected Thursday night, a dominant and tidy three-hit shutout (no walks, 11 strikeouts, just 104 pitches). He took a perfect game into the seventh inning, allowed a mere three singles. Pity Field is more like it.
It’s easy to forget now, but Kershaw’s surface stats weren’t pretty after nine starts: 2-3 record, 4.32 ERA. There were a few “what’s wrong with Kershaw?” article floating around, silly as that sounds now. What should have been the focus: a .342 BABIP, a 2.82 FIP, a 2.20 xFIP, 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings, a little bad luck with bequeathed runners. This was the rare chance to maybe get Kershaw under market. (I wasn’t able to do that, but I did move Giancarlo Stanton for Kershaw before the lefty’s tenth start. I’m not just playing the hindsight game.)
Where’s the actionable takeaway, you ask? Let’s jump over to Greinke, who may or may not pitch this weekend - the Greinkes are expecting a child this weekend. If he pitches against the Mets, we’ll expect the same bagel parade that Kershaw posted. Heck, Greinke hasn’t allowed a run since June 13, covering 43.2 innings.
Just like Kershaw’s early pushoff, Greinke’s current ERA is not to be trusted. The good players know that, that’s the case with any outlier stat. “Regression!” is never the end of the conversation, it’s the beginning of one. We need to make a logical guess what he regresses to.
But just how good is Greinke pitching? His strikeout rate, 8.02/9, is nothing special - and is a dip from last year’s 9.2. He’s not walking anyone, we come to expect that. A .232 BABIP is a happy fluke. A strand rate just under 90 percent is unreal, and unsustainable. His 6.1 HR/FB clip is also well below his career norm.
Although Greinke’s 1.30 ERA is miles ahead of the world (everyone else is over two), the ERA estimators don’t fully buy in. Greinke currently ranks fifth in FIP, 14th in xFIP, 14th in SIERA; by these metrics, Kershaw is having the much better year. Be clear on what I’m saying here: obviously Greinke is one of the best pitchers around. But it’s entirely possible for this moment in time - with a high-profile scoreless streak and some extra attention with the national media - he’s an eyelash overrated.
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If you own Greinke, I’d sit back, hope he’s able to face the Mets this weekend. Have a cigar, toast the family. And then after the New York outing, I’d quietly make it known you want to “move a pitcher.” Timing, of course, is everything.
All of the going-forward ERA estimates from Fangraphs suggest a Greinke ERA around 2.95, and I’ll sign off on that, too. Useful, sure. Star quality, sure. But maybe someone in your league will price him like he’s the pitcher to own, not just one of several good pitchers.
Your move, Greinke owner. Tell me in the comments what you expect going forward. If you’ve made a Greinke trade recently, share that information as well.
• If you’re a frustrated Mets fan, maybe you can take comfort in rookie outfielder Michael Conforto. He’s headed to New York for the weekend, a replacement for DL-bound Michael Cuddyer. Conforto, 22, was the tenth overall pick in the 2014 draft, and shot up the system quickly. Between Single- and Double-A this year, he’s posted a .297/.372/.482 slash, with 12 homers in 91 games.
The usual caveats apply here, of course. Conforto is jumping two levels with his promotion, his supporting cast is horrendous, and Citi Field isn’t a fun place to hit. But there’s plausible upside here, and if nothing else, there might be flip value. If I were Shuffling outfielders right this moment, I’d have Conforto in the $6-8 range.
