Closing Time: The Ian Kinsler problem
Name brands tend to die hard in fantasy leagues, which is why Ian Kinsler still holds a 95-percent Yahoo tag and a lofty ranking on many industry boards. But I know he’s available in one of my eight Yahoo leagues.
And he’s there because I dropped him. And heck, I was just kicking the tires (sorry, we kick a lot of tires here) after someone else dropped him a few weeks back.
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Kinsler turned 33 in the middle of June, and second base sure seems like a position where it gets late early. All the attrition, all those pivots. Kinsler’s 2014 Detroit debut had plenty of category juice and was driven by full-season volume, but let’s also acknowledge he’s just a .270/.314/.397 hitter since joining the Tigers. The bat doesn’t look so special anymore. He's walking more this year, but the average and power are depressed. So are fantasy owners.
Kinsler was the fourth second baseman off Yahoo boards in the spring, with an ADP around 54. It looks rather silly now, but he was drafted before Dee Gordon, Brian Dozier and Mookie Betts in most leagues. Some were worried about Jason Kipnis after a down year. Some overreacted to Kolten Wong’s early batting slot (yeah, that was me; such a shame, because Wong was the coverboy for this blog last summer).
Kinsler’s .258-45-2-31-6 line has him ranked 15th in second-base value through the opening three months. You couldn’t move Kinsler for any of the names in the above paragraph, but maybe you can still cash out here.
Kinsler or Joe Panik? Most of the industry plays the name-brand card there, but I’ll go Panik, who’s eight years younger, carries a first-round pedigree, and is doing much more in 2015. Panic in Detroit? Trade your panic for Joe Panik. Some of you can do this. Some of your opponents line up with conventional wisdom, and will be reluctant to adjust player values.
Kinsler or Justin Turner? I guess it comes down to if you feel Turner can withstand a full season, because I fully believe in the bat. Kinsler or Matt Duffy? Yes, this is a real question. Kinsler or Dustin Pedroia, when he comes off the DL? I guess Pedroia is another 30-something second baseman we worry about. Robinson Cano, too.
I can guarantee you I’m not going old at second base next year. The keystone race is to the swift.
If you want to defend Ian Kinsler's declining years, have your say in the comments.
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Now that you’ve found Miguel Sano, what are you going to do with him? Try to make a trade, I guess.
Sano has been a hot prospect since joining the Twins organization in 2010, and he’s having a strong year at Double-A (.274/.374/.544, 15 homers, five steals). Double jumps are fairly common these days, especially when a pedigree is at play, so Sano might be able to hit the ground running in Minnesota. The Twins want to contend and they need another bat.
Sano’s most sellable point in Yahoo is his surprise shortstop eligibility (he hasn’t been there in several years). Have fun with that. It’s a messy position in 2015, so another option is always welcome.
My bottom line with most prospects is simple and consistent: baseball is hard, and I’m going to fade the hype where I can. If I owned Sano in any prospect-happy league, you better believe I’m working the trade market before he ever plays a game. Sure, he could be another Maikel Franco, monster mashing immediately. Or maybe he could be another Joey Gallo, exposed on the first lap and quickly returned to the minors for more seasoning. You decide.
About Last Night: Carlos Carrasco came one out away from a no-hitter in Tampa Bay, underscoring how right-handed pitchers dominate this matchup. Being under the catwalk helps, too. Joey Butler broke up the no-no (and the shutout) and might be back in the lineup now; he’s also starting Thursday . . . If Johnny Cueto is really in all those trade discussions, he sure gave the scouts something to think about (8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 8 K). Unfortunately, if he is traded, it sounds like it will be to an American League team, and that’s a mild hit to his theoretical value. Still a proven ace, of course . . . For all the talk about Ian Desmond’s defense, Marcus Semien (25 errors) might be even worse. If the A’s climb into the playoff hunt - look at that run differential again - can they afford to play Semien all year? . . . The Pirates took batting practice against Alfredo Simon (save the bullpen) and Joba Chamberlain (duck in the bleachers): nine runs, 21 hits, four homers. Lumber Company. The damage could have been worse if the Bucs didn’t run into a couple of silly outs on the bases. A.J. Burnett cruised to his seventh victory, now has a 2.05 ERA. In Searage We Trust . . . Santiago Casilla blew a messy save at Miami and will get a time out for a few days. If you had to make a pickup, Sergio Romo is the logical play . . . Robinson Cano had a breakout day (5-2-4-3), perhaps because he owns James Shields. Meanwhile, Taijuan Walker has been outstanding over his last seven turns (1.68 ERA, three walks, 51 strikeouts), the lightbulb clearly going on. If I were shuffling the arms today, he's into the teens, easily . . . What’s so special about Kole Calhoun, again? Three strikeouts Wednesday, now down to .258/.314/.375. The poor Angels offense, it has two plus hitters . . . Wei-Yin Chen remains the best-kept secret in the American League (2.84 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, eight creamy-smooth IPs against Texas). I like him at Minnesota next week.
