Closing Time: Keep targeting the Braves until further notice
Eight days ago, I spent a day on the Alex Wood bandwagon. I was in for a night, ready to dial him up with confidence.
That’s what the Atlanta Braves on the schedule will do to you.
As it turns out, Atlanta kicked Wood around that Tuesday evening — scoring an easy 8-1 victory. That’s the last highlight we’ve seen for the Braves.
How bad is the 2016 club down in Hot 'Lanta? How much time do you have? The 4-16 record is easily the worst in baseball. Atlanta is 1-12 at home, winning only that game I mentioned above. The pitching has been a mess, posting a 4.85 ERA (fifth-worst in the majors).
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And then there’s the offense, which goes past bad — this could be a historic disaster. The Braves rank dead last in scoring, slugging percentage and weighted on-base average. They’re near the bottom in several other categories. And they’ve hit just three home runs, an absurd total through 20 games.
Three freaking home runs. Geesh, Andrew McCutchen hit three Tuesday night. The Braves hit two home runs on opening day, another dinger on April 10, and they haven’t hit the seats since — a stunning 15-game drought.
To be fair, no one can be completely surprised by Atlanta’s lousy offense — the Braves were dead last in scoring last year and second-to-last in 2014. The team is in a rebuilding mode, literally and figuratively. A new ballpark, ready for 2017, is on the way. Trading Shelby Miller over the winter was a wise move, landing — among other things — a buzzy shortstop prospect in Dansby Swanson. He could be the cornerstone of the next contending Atlanta ballclub.
But in the here and now, we need to gang up on this Atlanta team, and against this offense. The Stream Police is ready to go. Other than Freddie Freeman (who’s been in a funk, anyway), there’s nothing to fear in this lineup.
Rick Porcello had the bagel parade going in Monday’s victory at Atlanta (6.1 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K), and David Price cruised through Georgia in Tuesday’s win (8 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 14 K). It was a welcome rebound game from Price, who was hit hard in two of his four opening starts. His long-term resume inspired confidence, of course, and we should point out that April is far and away Price’s worst historical month. His new ballpark might tax him here and there, but he’s still a reliable brand name.
The Braves now head to Boston for two more games, which might allow for some streaming. Are you willing to gamble on knuckleballer Steven Wright (or decaffeinated coffee tables?). Will you spin the Wheel of Clay Buchholz? They pitch the next two games, in the Fenway backdrop.
After that, Atanta takes three games at Wrigley — Lackey, Hammel and Hendricks come highly recommended, with all the built-in Chicago advantages (second in runs, best in baserunning, tops in defensive WAR). Perhaps you can add Bartolo Colon before he faces Atlanta next week. Will Arizona's Miller turn around his season against the Braves, 10 days from now? Jerad Eickhoff looks good in the series after that, and maybe Jeremy Hellickson will offer streamer juice against the Braves.
We’re not kicking a team while it’s down, gamers. We’re just playing the ball as it lies. Let’s go where the story takes us. Let’s run downhill when we can.
-- Travis Shaw ripped a home run run in Tuesday’s victory, and the fantasy community is finally buying on him. For all the talk of how Pablo Sandoval kicked his job away in Boston, Shaw also took it away. Shaw showed surprising pop in last year’s 65-game trial (13 home runs), and this year he’s off to a snappy .324/.392/.521 start. The two home runs don’t force the issue, but he also has eight doubles, 14 RBIs, even a couple of steals.
To help sell the stock, Shaw carries dual eligibility (first base, third base) in the Yahoo game. It was interesting to see Shaw keep his lineup spot for both games in an NL park.
Shaw’s minor-league resume was so-so, and he wasn’t a hot prospect entering last year, his age-25 campaign. But after watching him get the job done through 85 major-league games, we’re far past the time of believing what’s in front of us. His ownership tag still isn’t close to the number it should settle in at. Heck, I’d put a solid value on Shaw in trade, too. The womb of the Boston lineup should be good to him.
-- Although Dallas Keuchel owners are still waiting to get their expected contributions, I wasn’t thrown by his loss at Seattle (6 H, 6 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 5 K). A couple of cheaper hits did Keuchel in at Safeco Field — that’s another way to say he wasn’t running well — and his overall stats (4.41 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) come from four road starts against just one at home.
Keep in mind how untouchable Keuchel was at home last year; while those numbers are unsustainable (15-0, 1.46/0.89) they also reflect the schedule can help Keuchel forward. He hosts Minnesota (amen) and Seattle in his next two starts. Keuchel's dreamy ground-ball and soft-contact rates have dipped thus far, though the ground-ball clip is still well above league average. I'm going to stay patient here.
-- One struggling Astro I don’t believe in is Carlos Gomez. He’s off to a .200/.221/.253 start (zero homers), frustrating to take after his disappointing 2015 return. And when you open the hood, things look more worrisome.
Gomez has never been a batter who strongly controlled the strike zone, but this year his strikeouts have spiked by six percent while his walks are down to 2.6 percent. You can’t give away at-bats like that. Gomez also has the highest soft-contact rate of his career.
Maybe the Mets knew something when they refused Gomez at the trade deadline last season, finding a flaw in the medicals. I expect Gomez to still give us double-digit home runs and perhaps 15-20 steals, but there will be a gaggle of strikeouts and likely a poor average. The timing isn't right to sell him right this second, but as soon as he puts something sellable on paper, I’d take it to the streets.
