Closing Time: Alex Guerrero is raking, but where does he play?
On the right ballclub, Alex Guerrero could be a dynamite power bat, maybe an intriguing designated hitter. On the 2015 Dodgers, he’s reduced to pinch-hitting star and occasional fill-in.
We could be stuck in SoCal gridlock for a while.
Guerrero’s first year in Los Angeles was a washout, spent mostly in Triple-A and on the disabled list. That qualifies at a notable disappointment, given the Dodgers spent $28 million to land the highly-regarded Cuban hitter in advance of the 2014 season. When you pay up for someone into their age-27 season, you're expecting immediate returns.
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Guerrero made the Dodgers coming out of spring training this year, in part because the team didn’t want to lose him. If Guerrero were optioned to the minors, he could have opted out of his contract. He’s not an easy player to trade, either, because of contract language (Guerrero can opt out of his deal after this year if he’s dealt).
The Cuban righty has seen limited playing time through the opening 15 games, but he’s made the most of it. Guerrero has clocked four homers in just 19 at-bats, including two pinch-homers. His off-the-bench homer Wednesday was the only L.A. headline in a loss to Madison Bumgarner and the Giants. Guerrero picked up a spot start Thursday afternoon and came through with another homer, plus a crisp single.
Nine hits, a 1.211 slugging percentage, it all leaps off the page. Everyone seems to be excited about Guerrero in L.A. – well, everyone except skipper Don Mattingly. You bring up Guerrero and Mattingly somehow forces the discussion to … Justin Turner?
Here's Alex Espinoza of MLB.com:
"I know the people are chanting for Alex right now," Mattingly said, "but there's other guys, too, that probably have swung the bat better. From the standpoint of ... J.T. hits .340 last year, leads the league in hitting, basically. Now, because he's not the flavor of the day, we start talking about someone else. That's where we can't get involved with what happened over a 10-day period."
Mattingly’s gruffness makes sense on some level – his Dodgers just got swept, in San Francisco of all places, and no manager likes the media telling him (or suggesting to him) how to fill out the lineup card. And it’s not like the Dodgers have an obvious place to slot Guerrero.
Juan Uribe currently stands at third base. He’s a popular veteran (Mattingly sure loves his veterans) and coming off a .311 season. He’s also a plus defender at the corner.
Guerrero played shortstop in Cuba, but he doesn’t project there any longer. He tried second base last year and never got comfortable. The Dodgers are set at those positions, anyway, with newcomers Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick.
Perhaps Guerrero could see occasional time in left field, a position he’s hardly played. If nothing else, he could be a platoon option tied to lefty Carl Crawford. But anytime Guerrero gets a start in left field, it might become a race to get him off the field.
I have a couple of Guerrero shares simply based on speculation, hoping he finds a spot, somewhere. The Dodgers offense isn’t so loaded that it can ignore this type of potential. Uribe is 36, after all. And maybe the club would consider Guerrero at second, short or the outfield if someone got hurt.
If you have time to wait and see on a development pick (this is a deeper-league play, not a shallow grab), Guerrero is still unowned in 80 percent of Yahoo leagues. The Dodgers unfortunately face all right-handed pitching this weekend in San Diego, but Guerrero might be too sizzling to sit. I suspect he’ll get the call Monday when the Dodgers play Bumgarner and the Giants again. And anytime Guerrero picks up a spot start, I'll be strongly considering him for DFS play (where his price is next to nothing).
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Say this for Masahiro Tanaka, he’s circled the wagons nicely after a rocky first start. He’s sitting with a 3.22 ERA and 0.94 WHIP despite all the red flags (velocity dip, rise in walks, torn UCL that he didn’t have surgery on). He’s shifted to a two-seam fastball, which explains some of the velocity dip – and also explains a rise in ground-ball rate. Then again, he’s obviously not going to hold a .211 BABIP all year, and his home-run clip (8.0 HR/FB) is considerably lower than last year.
I don’t own Tanaka anywhere – the elbow issues scared me off, and the price seemed expectant anyway in March – but if I did, I’d be quietly looking to “move a pitcher.” Too much uncertainty with the elbow. If you see things differently, by all means state your case in the comments.
• Clay Buchholz is another AL pitcher with three strong turns and one messy one. Unfortunately for Buchholz, his bad start turned into nine earned runs, and kept fantasy owners from trusting him the last couple of turns. But when you add it all up, we’re looking at 29 strikeouts against seven walks over 22.1 innings, and that’s a ratio you chase. His .371 hit rate should correct itself soon enough.
If you don’t want to use Buchholz against Toronto next week, I see your point. But when he reaches the Rays in two weeks, I’ll be on board.
• At least once a year I talk myself into Yonder Alonso, so let’s get this year’s entry out of the way. Alonso cracked eight hits in the Colorado series, giving him a .400/.485/.491 slash through 16 games. You love that he has more walks than strikeouts, and San Diego’s finally assembled a deep lineup around him. Alonso is still just 28, and he was a semi-touted prospect earlier in the decade.
Maybe he could be the NL’s version of the Loney/Mauer first baseman, a good average, won’t hurt you in a deeper league. Alonso is unclaimed freight in 91 percent of Yahoo leagues.
