Before you go all-in on Bryce Brown...
OK, let's begin by acknowledging the fact that Bryce Brown has legit talent. In fact, for two extraordinary weeks in 2012, Brown ruled the fantasy world. He piled up 347 rushing yards and four TDs for Philadelphia over just two games, playing in relief of the injured LeSean McCoy.
Brown was fumbly, you'll recall, but he was also electric. Good size, good speed, good player. The good times soon ended, however, as Brown put up a pair of dud performances (28 carries, 40 yards) before slipping back into a supporting role. But he definitely demonstrated the ability to produce big plays and big fantasy lines, no question.
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If you owned him back then, you're probably pretty excited about the opportunity ahead of him now in Buffalo. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are both sidelined by injury, leaving Anthony Dixon and Brown to carry the mail. Brad is bidding $48 on Bryce — and that may not actually be enough to land him in experts leagues, where enthusiasm is particularly high.
I enjoy issuing buy orders on buzzy pickups as much as the next guru, but I haven't quite been able to talk myself into breaking the imaginary bank for Brown. Here are my main worries, listed in order of importance:
• Over the next five weeks, Brown's schedule isn't the best. He gets the Jets in Week 8, then a bye, then the Chiefs, Dolphins and, again, New York. So that's three matchups against top-10 run defenses, plus an off-week. Not great if you need an immediate plug-and-play.
• Jackson is clearly coming back, perhaps by Week 11 or 12...
Bills RB Fred Jackson says on weekly @WGR550 appearance this morning that his groin injury is typically a 4-week injury. No surgery.
— Mike Rodak (@mikerodak) October 20, 2014
...and it's tough to imagine him returning to a substantially lesser role. Jackson certainly hasn't been a problem. He's averaged 4.3 YPC and he was on pace for 70-plus receptions prior to the injury.
• Dixon sounds like a man who expects a lot of work in the weeks ahead. "This is an opportunity I've been waiting for, to get back in that workhorse role and show people what I can do," Dixon said to reporters Sunday. Remember, he's the guy who's been active on gamedays.
• Brown, by his own admission, needs to get comfortable with the Bills' protection schemes. He's been running with the scout team. "I haven't got to rep it as much, obviously, with not playing."
• When I listen to Buffalo head coach Doug Marrone, I don't hear a man who thinks he has a star-in-waiting on the depth chart. Give it a listen, try to get a read on the coach. Maybe he can't wait to unleash Brown, and he's just afraid to tip his hand. Or maybe he's planning to roll with Dixon as his primary back, leaving Brown with a Spiller-ish supporting role.
Again, with the Jets on deck and a bye looming, I really can't build a strong case for anyone to go all-in on Bryce. Realistically, he's a guy you won't play until Week 10.
Tre Mason, on the other hand, is currently unowned in 82 percent of Yahoo leagues, he's already beyond his bye, and he's coming off an 18-carry, 85-yard game. Mason would be my priority add this week, with Denard Robinson behind him. (You'll find hype on those two here and here.)
Brown is more of a long-range play — a guy with clear talent and opportunity, but with plenty still to prove in Buffalo. If you're adding, you have to simply hope that Brown will have carved out a decent role for himself by Weeks 13-16, when the Bills' schedule is less messy (CLE, DEN, GB, OAK). Would I bid? Yes, but not to my limit.
As always, this is a conversation, not a lecture series.Tell us your waiver plans in comments, if you care to share. And if you're particularly bullish on Bryce, your opinion is welcome. Dissent is encouraged...
