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    • Matt Cain off to a slow start (USAT)

      Matt Cain entered this season having allowed 129 homers over 1,536.2 innings (0.76 HR/9). This year, he’s already served up nine home runs over 34.2 innings. Put differently, he’s allowed the same amount of long balls this month as he did all of the 2011 season, which spanned 221.2 innings. Cain has never had a season in which his HR/FB% was higher than 8.4. That number currently sits at 19.1% in 2013. While some could view this as regression hitting hard, Cain’s previous sample was too big to be written off as a fluke, and it’s worth pointing out just two of his six starts this year have come at home. Cain’s fastball velocity is down slightly in the early going (about 0.5 mph less compared to last year), and thanks to two deep playoff runs, he’s averaged 238.2 innings pitched over the past three seasons, so it’s at least possible he’s wearing down. However, with a 32:10 K:BB ratio over 34.2 innings this year, Cain could just as easily be viewed as a prime buy-low candidate. A 6.49 ERA typically isn’t accompanied by a 1.30 WHIP. I’d try to take advantage of owners fed up with an extremely unlucky stretch of home runs allowed and throw out some trade offers. From 2009-2012, Cain’s ERA (2.93) and WHIP (1.10) were both the fourth-best among all starters in baseball (accompanied by a HR/FB% of 7.0), so don’t let one month change just how consistently good Cain has been. The home park, SF’s bullpen and strong defense are all in his favor as well.

      Here’s a funny clip asking people at Coachella about fake bands.

      Here’s a cop yanking a suicidal man off train tracks at the last possible second.

      Read More »from Mostly MLB Notes: Buying Matt Cain and examining what’s wrong with Eric Hosmer
    • Millions of owners, like Behrens, will sign up Peterson at No. 1 (USAT)

      When Mr. Irrelevant, Justice Cunningham, had his name called Saturday, the fantasy football mock season officially got underway. To kick off Yahoo!'s festivities, we'll mock two rounds per day Tuesday-Friday (12-teams, PPR scoring) to help you get educated on which players will be valued/undervalued when the bulk of the draft season begins in August. Please declare a winner and/or express your general disdain for our 'stupidity' in the comments section below.

      SEE ROUNDS 3-4 HERE

      SEE ROUNDS 4-5 HERE

      SEE ROUNDS 7-8 HERE

      ROUND 1

      Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings (PK1, RB1) – Is there even an argument for anyone else? Only a lunatic contrarian would veer away from the game's best back, coming off an all-time season. – Behrens 1

      Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans (PK2, RB2) – There really shouldn't be much debate with the top two picks in 2013. Foster gave us over 1,600 scrimmage yards last season with 17 scores, and he was terrific in the playoffs. – Behrens 2

      Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK3, RB3) – Lands No. 3 here after finishing behind only Peterson and Foster in terms of RB fantasy points as a rookie. And in PPR leagues, only Peterson was better out of the backfield. – Brandon 1

      LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (PK4, RB4) – Every indication is that Chip Kelly will deploy a run-heavy system in Philly, so McCoy, with his versatility and elusiveness, should be put to good use. Plus, he's still only 24 years old – plenty of tread left on the tires. – Brandon 2

      Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (PK5, RB5) – Page me when he has a bad season (okay, Tweet me, or Facebook me, or text me, maybe). Even in an ordinary campaign for Rice, we saw double-digit touchdowns, 61 receptions, and one absolute clowning of the San Diego Chargers. Welcome to the huddle. – Pianow 1

      Read More »from The Roto Arcade Fantasy Football Mock, RDs 1-2
    • Fish out of water (USAT)

      We try to keep Closing Time from becoming an injury-driven blog, but on some occasions we can't avoid it. The Monday night (and Tuesday morning) slate turned into a medical watch, with key players falling by the wayside all over the place.

      The biggest individual hit came in Miami, where Giancarlo Stanton suffered a right hamstring strain and landed on the DL after the game. He's out for at least 15 days, and might need more time than that (we'll see what Tuesday's MRI tells us). The timing is particularly rotten for Stanton, who had a three-homer weekend against Chicago.

      With Stanton out of the mix, highly-regarded outfielder Marcell Ozuna gets a chance to show what he can do. The 22-year-old was off to a ridiculous 10-game start at Double-A (.333/.383/.810, five homers), his first time at the level. We'll see how he handles a double-jump to the show. But no matter what Ozuna is ready for, the Marlins already had the worst offense in the majors by far (71 runs; .226/.287/.312 slash) – and now we can be even more aggressive in our efforts to stream against them.

      Read More »from Closing Time: Everbody hurts, starting with Giancarlo Stanton
    • No longer trapped in an overcrowded Saints backfield, Ivory is on Cloud Nine. (USAT)

      Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders entering the mock draft season.

      Now ex-Saint Chris Ivory, traded from New Orleans to the New York Jets in exchange for a fourth-round pick, rushing yards this fall in the Big Apple 1,099.5

      Brandon – UNDER. I like Ivory's motor, but I also like Mike Goodson, who has been productive when healthy. And Bilal Powell was at least serviceable working in tandem with Shonn Greene last season. I expect we'll see a rotation of these guys, something that Ivory should be very used to coming from New Orleans.

      Andy – UNDER. I would have struggled with this one if the number was, say, 849.5 rushing yards, but 1,099.5 seems crazy. To approach this total, Ivory would need to play all 16 games, plus he'd need to dominate the backfield touches, leaving little for Mike Goodson. I think we've set this line at something close to Ivory's ceiling.

      Scott – I want to say over, I really do. Ivory brings a 5.4 career YPC to the mix and the Jets, largely to their detriment, can't quit the ground and pound motif. But Ivory would have to shove Mike Goodson completely out of the way to get into the 1100s, and I wonder how much of his New Orleans effectiveness was built on context (running late in games, and against defenses designed to stop an elite passing attack). UNDER is the only reasonable ticket.

      Read More »from Over/Under: Just how attractive is Ivory as a Jet?
    • Susie Derkins is not invited (USAT)

      It's been a lazy, rainy Sunday in The D, so I can't guarantee you the Braves and Tigers will be on the field when we check in tonight. But good baseball talk has no clock and no reliance on the weather. Let's get together and do what we do. Paws cordially invites you (or maybe that's Hobbes - get Bill Watterson on Line 1).

      And as always, you're welcome to go off the map as you like. Wine, women and song are always approved topics, and maybe we'll sneak in some hockey, soccer or NFL talk. What sport isn't in season right now?

      You've got a few hours to get in character; see you at 10 pm ET.

      Read More »from Sunday Night Fantasy Chat: 10 pm ET
    • When it comes to rookies conventional wisdom no longer applies. With a few notable exceptions, most first-year players, particularly quarterbacks, were once thought to be multi-year projects, the Steve McNair approach – observe, learn and wait.

      But in this day and age where instant gratification is constantly sought after, time isn’t of the essence. Several players picked in April are immediately pressed into competitive situations where often times they emerge as the go-to option, evident in the rapid ascension of guys like Robert Griffin III, Doug Martin and Josh Gordon, to name a few, last year. Because nuances from the college game are commonplace in playbooks throughout the league, the transition for some guys is seamless. From level-to-level, system terminology and execution are often not drastically different.

      In football’s version of speed-dating, an inexperienced player that excels under fire typically buys at least another 2-3 years of trust. Conversely, those that fail quickly crash the pity party, drinking foamy beer alongside fellow busts JaMarcus Russell, moo cow Mike Williams (Not the Tampa version) and Mark Ingram (Too soon?).

      Unfortunately, many commodities from this year's draft may soon pump the keg.

      From a talent standpoint, this year’s class pales in comparison to 2012’s, a group that will be deemed ‘legendary’ 10 years from now. Though there is quality depth at wide receiver and running back, other fantasy focused positions lack punch, especially quarterback. However, success is all about opportunity. Any player given a chance to showcase his wares can thrive. Look at what 'The Butler' Alfred Morris, a passed-over sixth-round pick, accomplished a season ago. Displayed in the chart above, he totaled 246.3 fantasy points, the third-best among rookie RBs since 2000. His 1,613 rushing yards ranked third all-time for freshmen backs behind Eric Dickerson and George Rogers. As always, it all boils down to volume and system fit.

      After weeks of poking, prodding and Wonderlicking, destinations are now determined. What newcomers will be cornerstones on fantasy rosters next season? Here's seven superb players poised to make an impact (in order of projected contribution):

      Read More »from Saved by the Bell! Pittsburgh RB, other rushers, to set rookie pace
    • "Add this player and drop another player"? Yes, please. (Getty)Gamers, this is not a drill. REPEAT: NOT A DRILL.

      The Colorado Rockies have called up prospect Nolan Arenado, and he'll immediately take over full-time third base duties. You want this guy. Arenado's promotion is without question an actionable event for fantasy owners.

      Go scan your league's free agent pool for this kid, right now. GO. SHOO.

      Chris Nelson has been designated for assignment by the Rockies (and he shouldn't have much trouble finding a new major league home. A fair number of teams have a need at third.)

      You'll recall that Arenado, 22, had a terrific spring for Colorado — so good, in fact, that he nearly opened the season in the big leagues. He was off to a tremendous start at Triple-A Colorado Springs, batting .364/.392/.667 over his first 18 games, with 11 doubles, three homers and 21 RBIs.

      Arenado is a former Arizona Fall League MVP, ranked among the game's better prospects by all sources. He projects as a heart-of-the-order hitter with respectable pop, and his home environment is obviously friendly. He's expected to bat eighth in his MLB debut, which is less than ideal, but he'll eventually find a favorable spot.

      Read More »from Fantasy Alert: Rockies promote Nolan Arenado
    • Welcome back, Chooch (USAT)It's been a mediocre start for the Phillies offense through three weeks. They've collected 93 runs, tied for 19th in the majors. The slash line comes in at .252/.304/.385. Primary catcher Erik Kratz has been a mess, posting an ugly .191/.222/.309 contribution.

      On Sunday, that latter problem is mercifully eliminated. Carlos Ruiz is finally walking through that door.

      Ruiz was ineligible for the first 25 games of the year as he served an Adderall suspension. The time has run out and he's back in uniform Sunday, batting fifth against the Mets. Cole Hamels will be happy to see his old running mate.

      It's not easy to get a definitive handle on who Ruiz is for fantasy purposes. He provided a solid average and marginal power in 2010-2011 before exploding into last year's career season (.325-56-16-68 over 114 games). He turned 34 in January. If you're satisfied with your current backstop and only need to start one, you can probably watch this story from the sidelines.

      Read More »from Carlos Ruiz is here to help
    • Cash is King (USAT)

      The mere numbers in the box score might not sound like much. Lots of pitchers work six tidy innings allowing just one run, especially in Petco Park. To get the full perspective of how Andrew Cashner is regarded, we need other elements: a little video, and some post-game comments.

      Roll the tape first, have a look at Cashner stepping on the high-90s gas in his Friday victory over San Francisco. Pablo Sandoval and Brandon Belt both struck out twice, and no one managed an extra-base hit against Cashner. The converted reliever allowed five hits and one run over his stint, with one walk and five strikeouts.

      "The guy has a great arm and he just shut us down," Giants manager Bruce Bochy told MLB.com. "It's that simple."

      His secondary pitches don't offer the same visceral reaction, but Cashner also had decent command of his change and curve Friday. The Padres feel he could be a No. 1 or No. 2 starter down the line; that's why they essentially swapped Anthony Rizzo for Cashner back in January 2012 (two non-prospects on each side completed the deal).

      [Also: Owner Jeffrey Loria further alienates Marlins, fans with lineup mandate]

      "He hasn't reached his ceiling," Padres pitching coach Darren Balsley said. "When he starts rolling, the sky's the limit."

      Cashner opened the year in the bullpen and the plan was to slowly stretch out his arm, get him ready for the rotation. A temporary setback for

      Read More »from Closing Time: Straight Cashner, homey
    • Nick Franklin (Getty Images)

      The Seattle Mariners, as you might have heard, are not exactly a run-scoring juggernaut. They currently rank 13th in the American League in OBP and slugging percentage. They've lost seven of their last 10 games, and the team's run differential is now -31. They just replaced Brendan Ryan with Robert Andino, which is sort of like replacing passionflower tea with chamomile.

      The Mariners, in a nutshell, are not good.

      But things are going a bit better for Seattle's Triple-A affiliate, the Tacoma Rainiers.

      Read More »from Farm Report: Nick Franklin goes 5-for-5, building the call-up case

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