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    • Playoff season means one thing, Spiller is set to go off (USP)

      Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders for Week 15.

      C.J. Spiller, now locked in the pole position, total yards versus Seattle 109.5

      Scott — OVER is the only logical way to play this. Chan Gailey is finally saved from himself, and even if the Seahawks control the game, Spiller can make hay as a receiver. The Bills are going to have to bite the bullet on Spiller as a pass blocker (something that's made the team nervous); it's sink-or-swim time.

      Dalton — OVER. Spiller has averaged 92.3 yards from scrimmage on just 15.8 touches over the past four games, so I expect a big performance with increased volume, even if it's a tough matchup.

      Brad — OVER. The Seahawks run defense has been rather unimpressive in recent weeks, evident in their 4.4 yards per carry allowed to RBs since Week 10. Spiller is a special talent who is finally getting his just due with Jackson shelved. It would be no surprise if he finished as the total yardage leader at RB in Week 15.

      Read More »from Over/Under: Is a Spiller spectacular on the horizon?
    • Shayne Graham, come on down (USAT)

      It's not uncommon to hear or read grousing about the kicker and defense positions in fantasy football. It's all luck, some say. It's too freaking random, someone might offer. Just flip a coin and get it over with, that's how many seem to view this part of the game. I've seen leagues that eliminate the kickers and defenses altogether.

      Those lines of reasoning never made sense to me. In my view, ranking kickers and defenses is the easiest thing a fantasy football scribe does every week. More than any other position, the success of your kicker and defense is usually tied to the success of his club. (It's not quite that simple, but that's the best way to start — follow the heavy favorite.) And while some others grouse and rely on poorly-conceived methods to fill these spots, we have a chance to steal some points in this area most weeks. It's a fun, and rewarding, spot to do weekly shopping on the wire.

      Read More »from Kickers and Defenses: Stealing points in Week 15
    • Rodgers has served owners plenty of cheese and whine the past three weeks (USAT)

      Each week the Noise highlights 10 bold names who he believes are destined to torpedo your team leave egg on his face. For those playing the Lames home edition, each player must be started in at least 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues to qualify. As an accountability advocate, results, whether genius or moronic, will post the following week using the scoring system shown here. If you're a member of TEAM HUEVOS, post your Week 15 Lames in the comments section below.

      Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB (96-percent started)
      Matchup: at Chi
      Over the past three weeks, Rodgers has resembled a year-old box of opened Saltine crackers. His stale numbers during that stretch (249.0 combined ypg, 3:2 td:int split, 18.3 fppg) have tarnished the 'stud's' once impeccable image. Though many owners in the fantasy community moronically adhere to unproven 'always start' theories, the popular first-round pick is worthy of a demotion, provided one has a suitable replacement. Based on his recent string of disappointing efforts and unfavorable Week 15 matchup, the decorated passer's ceiling is uncharacteristically low. Yes, a rash of injuries to key players (e.g. Brian Urlacher and Tim Jennings) have made the  Bears more Berenstain than bruising, but with their backs against the wall they should rise to the occasion. Peanut Tillman remains one of the league's finest turnover catalysts and pass defenders. He ranks third in coverage according to Pro Football Focus, surrendering only 8.6 yards per catch. Jennings, who is targeting a return this week, is equally impressive, yielding a 46.8 QB rating, the fifth-lowest in the league among corners with at least 300 snaps. And safeties Major Wright and Chris Conte rank well above-average defending the pass. Overall, the unyielding secondary has allowed a 12:21 TD:INT split in 13 games. Stifling. In nine career starts, Rodgers has caged his arch-rival tallying a 101.0 QB rating, 243.3 yards per game and 17 touchdowns (1 rush). But possibly minus deep-threat Jordy Nelson and given the harsh road environment, he could post a line nearly identical to what he did in the clubs' first meeting this season (219-1-1), a very supbar performance. This time of year, average means elimination.

      Fearless Forecast: 20-31, 233 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 1 interception, 11 rushing yards, 15.7 fantasy points

      Read More »from Lames: Soldier fail! Rodgers’ tepid play to continue in Chicago
    • I was knocked out of my highest priority league last week because I made the wrong choice at QB between Andrew Luck and Colin Kaepernick. It was the second week in a row that I made the wrong choice, and it was the umpteenth reminder that I really hate not having one franchise QB that I simply never have to think about benching — there's maybe 6-7 of them, with Luck just missing that elite cut. At any rate, I still have a couple other dogs in the hunt among all my leagues, but as I pointed out with the Luck/Kaepernick example, one wrong move can provide a swift ending to the '12 season. Should I go with Brandon Weeden or Ben Roethlisberger? Steve Smith or Owen Daniels? You might be able to win a championship even if you don't make all the right moves. But you at least better hope that you make more than your opponent.

      Let's get the Week 15 thought-process started, Skinny-style:

      Total Week 15 green-light plays by position: 8 QB; 9 RB; 16 WR; 8 TE; 5 DST

      Note: Numbers in parentheses next

      Read More »from NFL Skinny: Week 15 preview
    • Josh Gordon, your fantasy friend (USA Today Sports Images)

      Programming note: It's a travel day for the author, so this week you're getting a just-the-facts version of Target Practice, free of bullets. I could have pushed this feature back a day, but I like to get the numbers posted before Tuesday's waiver deadline. You'll find both weekly and year-to-date target totals after the jump. But first, an important fantasy PSA about an under-owned receiver...

      OK, so Cleveland rookie Josh Gordon may not have had a monster day in Week 14, but his 8-catch, 86-yard effort was useful enough. The key stat for Gordon on Sunday was his season-high 12 targets, which gives him 77 for the year and 33 over his last four games. The rookie is now on pace for a 900-yard campaign, yet, as of this writing, he's still available in 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

      [Outside the Game: Redskins rookie RB Alfred Morris stays humble]

      I realize that thousands of fake teams shut down in the final weeks of each season, but I'd like to think that we still have enough active owners out there to boost Gordon's ownership into a proper range — let's say north of 60 percent. He'll face Washington in Week 15, the league's 31st ranked pass defense, so the match-up ahead is plenty friendly. He'll be a top-24 receiver on my board, easy.

      If Gordon sees another double-digit target total — and he hasn't drawn less than seven in any game since Week 9 — we're in for a big day. Use as needed, gamers.

      Read More »from Target Practice, Week 14: Last call on Josh Gordon
    • AP aiming for rushing record (USAT)

      Since returning from injury, DeMarco Murray has 44 carries for 136 yards, good for a 3.1 YPC mark, although he's salvaged fantasy value by scoring twice. Among Murray's 21 rushing attempts Sunday, his longest gain was seven yards, although in fairness the Bengals are actually the best team in the NFL at limiting long runs, as they've allowed just five carries for 20+ yards and zero for 40+ on the year…BenJarvus Green-Ellis had one carry that went at least 30 yards during his career entering Week 12. He's had runs for 48, 41 and 38 yards in each of his past three games, respectively…Assuming you weren't on bye, A.J. Green sure picked a bad week to have his worst game of the season. After scoring in nine straight games, Green has been held out of the end zone in each of his past three contests…Dez Bryant, who was actually quiet for most of Sunday but has now scored seven touchdowns over the past five games, might be looking at season-ending surgery on his finger, which would obviously be a devastating blow to his owners. After scoring seven of his nine touchdowns in the first half last year, getting accused of disappearing late in games, Bryant has scored all nine of his TDs in the second half this year (which leads the NFL), all of which have occurred when Dallas has been behind at the time. Go figure…Terence Newman dropped a pretty easy interception against his former team…On a day in which the Cowboys and Eagles both won on the final play of their games (with the former overcoming a nine-point deficit in the last 6:35 minutes and the latter winning despite being down 11 points with 3:55 left) to go along with the Chargers dominating the Steelers in Pittsburgh with Ben Roethlisberger back, it was officially bizarro week.

      Read More »from Mostly NFL Notes: Adrian Peterson a medical marvel
    • Brandon Lloyd really scored? Yes he did. (USAT)

      Time for the usual hijinks. Let's discuss real football and fake football; Brady and Schaub, Belichick and Kubiak. Let's look back, let's look ahead. And let's get silly, because that's important, too.

      You've got about 15 minutes to get into character. Make it count.

      Read More »from Monday Night Fantasy Chat: 10:20 pm ET
    • A reborn Moreno could be this year's playoff savior at RB (USAT)

      Each week the Noise highlights 12-13 somewhat obscure, unobvious names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post the results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here. If you're a member of TEAM HUEVOS, post your Week 15 Flames in the comments section below.

      Josh Freeman, TB, QB (32-percent started)
      Matchup: at NO
      Just weeks ago internal discussions at Buccaneers headquarters centered on Freeman's accuracy and whether or not he was the franchise's true quarterback of the present and future. Though he's still completed an uneventful 54.7 percent of his attempts and with Tampa's playoff hopes faint, those thoughts have largely been squashed. Since the Bucs' bye Week 4, The Fro has netted 300.3 passing yards per game and a sterling 18:4 TD:INT split. Many of his throws aren't spot on, but his ability to minimize mistakes and exploit one-on-one matchups downfield with playmakers Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams are quite commendable. His 7.6 yards per attempt ranks eighth in the league. Yes, the Saints have shown some improvement, but they are no mystery defensively. They are the definition of 'vertically challenged.' Starting corners Jabari Greer and Patrick Robinson have surrendered 16.1 yards per catch combined. In Week 7, Freeman chucked 42 passes for 420 yards and three touchdowns versus New Orleans. Because of Tampa's deficient secondary, a similar total wouldn't be farfetched in the rematch. Expect him to score a lucrative booty in Week 15.

      Fearless Forecast: 23-40, 318 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 7 rushing yards, 24.6 fantasy points

      Read More »from Flames: Go-shon! Moreno to fuel playoff charge
    • Catch a rising star (USAT)Say this for David Wilson, he knows how to throw a coming-out party. Or maybe it's fairer to call it a welcome-back party.

      The Giants expected big things from Wilson when they used the 32nd overall pick on him back in April, and he quickly made his mark during a splashy preseason. Logically, he showed up on a bunch of sleeper and breakthrough lists, including the ones here. Then it all went to hell in a hand basket when Wilson fumbled on opening night. All coaches hate ball-security issues, but Tom Coughlin is on the extreme end of that.

      You know how the next few months played out. Ahmad Bradshaw stayed on the field for 12 of the first 13 games. Journeyman Andre Brown emerged as a dynamic No. 2 back and goal-line vulture. Wilson only had 18 carries through the first ten games, and even after Brown's season-ending injury, he was carefully used against the Packers (6-13 rushing) and Redskins (4-9). You can't blame anyone who spec-added Wilson prior to Week 12 only to drop him before this week. You can't wait forever for the photo to develop.

      Wilson's monstrous game against the Saints on Sunday (327 total yards, three touchdowns) was wasted on a lot of fantasy benches and waiver wires. Short of a very deep format, there was no logical case for dialing up Wilson as a Week 14 play. He was used in just four percent of Yahoo! formats, a 28-point tree falling in the wilderness that nobody heard.

      Read More »from Monday Brunch: David Wilson goes bananas (on your bench, or on your waiver wire)
    • F-Jax and CJ, pregame (USA Today Sports Images)

      Within the fantasy community (and probably within the global community of Bills fans), there's been much consternation this season regarding the Buffalo backfield. It's been a year-long issue, with only occasional breaks.

      Fred Jackson, when healthy, receives a larger share of the touches. CJ Spiller, however, has been substantially more productive. Jackson is averaging 3.8 yards per carry and 6.4 per catch; Spiller's averages are 6.6 and 10.4. And as we all learned late last season, when Fred was sidelined in the final weeks, Spiller's productivity doesn't really slip when he's seeing 15-20 touches per game. He's a terror, basically.

      Well, following Buffalo's Week 14 loss to St. Louis, the team's backfield has become much simpler to read, for all the wrong reasons. The rushing workload will tilt heavily in favor of Spiller down the stretch, because Jackson sustained yet another injury, this time to his right knee. He'll miss "a minimum of two to three weeks" according to Bills head coach Chan Gailey.

      Or, in other words, the remainder of the season.

      Jackson is an easy guy to root for, so you hate to see his year conclude this way. This is an easy situation to spin for fantasy purposes, of course -- we've had the Jackson/Spiller fire drill a few times over the years. Spiller gets a serious bump in value, as he'll receive all the work he can handle in the closing weeks.

      Read More »from Fred Jackson likely done for year; CJ Spiller will play ‘as much as he can play’

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