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    • Lincecum sorrowful spring start has investors concerned. (USAT)

      Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here's our view on nine intriguing over/unders entering spring training.

      Former top-of-the-line fantasy starters Roy Halladay and Tim Linceucm have struggled mightily this spring. Who bounces back stronger?

      Andy – HALLADAY. He was actually having a nice spring (10.1 IP, 3 R, 2 BB, 9 Ks) until Tuesday's clunker. I'm giving him a mulligan. Not yet worried. Of course I haven't yet drafted him, either.

      Brad – LINCECUM. He's battled through blisters this spring, but his velocity is hovering in the 92-94 mph range and his confidence is back. Given the favorable pitching environment and strong lineup behind him, the cleaner-looking Prince of Darkness won't suck the life out of those who invest in his services.

      Scott – I have to go LINCECUM, who showed dominant form as a reliever late in 2012 (at least we know it's still in him). Halladay's 2012 was a hot mess, his velocity is down this spring, and he turns 36 in May. I don't see any reason to draft him unless it's an outright giveaway.

      Read More »from Over/Under: Comeback kid, will Lincecum regain All-Star form?
    • Brandon Belt, Cactus League hero (USAT Images)

      If it's March, it must be time to re-hype Brandon Belt. The kid is destroying Cactus League pitching, again.

      As of this writing, Belt is hitting .417/.432/.861(!) with four homers and nine RBIs in his 37 plate appearances. He was a monster during exhibition play in 2012, too, going 28-for-74 with three bombs and eight doubles.

      Belt's spring power surge didn't actually carry over into the regular season last year, you'll recall, as he hit only seven home runs over 145 games. But modest power has always been part of the projection. Belt delivered 76 extra-base hits across three minor league levels in 2010 (including 23 homers), and he cleared the fence 17 times in 2011, splitting time between Triple-A and the majors. He hit the ball plenty hard for San Francisco last year (25.6 line-drive percentage), though not usually on a trajectory that benefited the fantasy community.

      [Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

      Read More »from Brandon Belt, king of spring
    • Lefty in Limbo (USAT)

      We might be smack dab in the middle of spring training, but the Reds are in no major hurry with their pitching plans. Aroldis Chapman, Jonathan Broxton and Mike Leake owners? They'll have to keep waiting, too.

      [Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

      Okay, Dusty Baker is trying to push this along (and so is Les Nessman). We've got that going for us. Here's what the skipper told the Cincinnati Enquirer:

      “I’d like to decide soon and get my team together,” Baker said. “I don’t like having guys in the middle. That’s a bad situation when you’re in the middle of anything. An unknown. Then everybody else is in an unknown situation. That’s unfair to him or us — the situation he’s been put in. He was in that same situation last year.

      “I’d like to make a decision in the next week or so, so I can get my team together. The decision is not only mine, it’s ours. But I got my opinion.”

      It’s pretty clear than Baker prefers Chapman in the closer role.

      I don't run the Reds or have a stake in this staff (not yet, anyway), but I can see both sides of the Chapman debate. On one hand, Chapman was a lights-out closer in 2012 (1.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 122 strikeouts, 38 saves) and why fix something that's not broken? Then again, if the Reds could ever shift Chapman into a 200-inning role (or thereabouts), it would help the team more, in theory – even if the dominance level came down significantly from the 2012 performance.

      Read More »from Cincinnati Shuffle: What will the Reds do with Aroldis Chapman?
    • Welker's arrival in Denver complicates worth of Thomas, Decker. (USAT)

      For the past couple weeks, Wes Welker has hemmed and hawed about his future with the Patriots. In a surprising revelation Wednesday, the multi-time Pro Bowler, arguably the game's most consistent PPR machine, appears to have severed ties with the organization that made him a megastar, set to join another future Hall of Fame quarterback, Peyton Manning, in Denver.

      Once finalized, the move will send ripple effects through the fantasy community. Though he's been largely erratic in the touchdown department, it's hard to dispute the plucky wideout's contributions in leagues that value receptions. Over the past six seasons, he's hauled in an unreal 112.2 receptions and 1,243.8 receiving yards per year. Durable, dependable and gritty, he is one of the virtual game's true consistency kings.

      However, the change of address may not be beneficial.

      Read More »from Rapid React: Go Wes, older man! Welker reportedly lands in Denver, Amendola to Pats
    • Hanley Ramirez, lucky 13 (USAT)

      Just 12 months ago, Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes were the toast of South Beach, ready to run and rock Miami's new baseball stadium. Okay, that plan didn't exactly come together. Ramirez received his Miami reprieve in the second half of the year, while Reyes was part of the post-season garage sale the Marlins shamelessly held.

      Let's look forward with optimism, not back in anger. Which big-name infielder makes the most sense for your fake team in 2013? Dalton Del Don and Scott Pianowski have a difference of opinion. Time to play the feud.

      D3, reporting from Hanleywood: After ranking 32nd, 3rd, 8th, 5th and 23rd among all fantasy players over his first five years in the league, Hanley Ramirez has come in at No. 300 and No. 67 over the past two seasons, respectively. The low ranking in 2011 can be blamed on him playing in just 92 games, but he didn't exactly return to star status last season, as his K rate (19.8) was the highest of his career, while his walk rate (8.1) was his lowest since 2007.

      [Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

      The most curious aspect of Ramirez is him transforming into such an extreme groundball hitter. In fact, over the past three seasons, his 1.48 GB/FB rate is the 25th highest in all of baseball. While that's obviously not what you want to see from a young and previously powerful shortstop, what's even weirder is that his BABIP over that span is .301. That seems normal enough on the surface, until you realize it was .351 from 2006-2009 – tied for the fifth highest in MLB. Put differently, Ramirez has suffered a drop in homers thanks to hitting more groundballs, yet his hit rate has also declined precipitously at the same time, as we'd normally expect the opposite to occur (groundballs typically go for hits far more than fly balls). So based on this batted ball data, it's safe to expect either his batting average or his home runs to rise moving forward.

      Read More »from Spin Doctors: Hanley Ramirez vs. Jose Reyes
    • Jose Reyes (USAT Images)

      As a group, major league shortstops demonstrated exactly one useful fantasy skill last season: They stole bases.

      They didn't do much else, but at least they ran. This position delivered four of the game's top-13 individual stolen base totals, with Everth Cabrera's 44 steals leading the National League. Twelve different shortstops reached the 20-stolen base plateau in 2012, the most at any spot except outfield. And you might recall that Cincinnati farmhand Billy Hamilton had a pretty decent year, establishing a new minor league record for single-season steals (155).

      So yeah, there's plenty of speed at short (even with Hamilton making the transition to center field). But if you're looking for power, good luck. Only five shortstops hit 20 or more homers last season, and none topped 25. This spot didn't give us any 100-RBI campaigns, and only one shortstop managed to score 100 runs (Jimmy Rollins, 102).

      If you're seeking high-average hitters ... nope, sorry. Just three shortstops hit .300 or better last year, among all who qualified for the batting title.

      [Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

      Read More »from Fantasy Baseball 2013: Shortstop Primer
    • Downtown Dom Brown (USAT)In a time not long ago, Domonic Brown was considered a pretty big deal. The Phillies outfielder cracked Baseball America's prospect list in 2009 (checking in at No. 48), and he was the fourth-best prospect in BA prior to the 2011 season (behind the heavy metal of Harper, Trout and Montero). Future stardom was predicted and expected.

      Just two years later, Brown is a somewhat-forgotten commodity, a name for the post-hype sleeper list. That's how it so often goes with this prospecting game. We build them up and we toss them aside; we spit venom and vitriol if they don't immediately pan out.

      [Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

      To be fair, Brown hasn't done much in bits and pieces of MLB playing time over the past three years. Over 147 games and 433 at-bats, he's posted a mediocre .236/.315/.388 line, with 12 homers and five steals. Tune-up stints in the minors haven't gone much better. His defense has been a problem at times, and manager Charlie Manuel hasn't been a Brown proponent. When the Phillies signed Delmon Young to a much-criticized deal over the winter, it in part reflected the organization not trusting Brown.

      Alas, the dominoes have started to fall Brown's way this spring. Young has as bum ankle and hasn't been playing; it's believed he'll be on the disabled list to start the season. Meanwhile, Brown's play has been terrific. He's off to a 16-for-37 start through 14 games, with three homers and six walks. It slashes out to a robust .432/.523/.730, and he's also scored 15 runs (tops in the majors). Brown appears to be a lock to start on opening day, and Manuel recently called Brown "the biggest bright spot in camp." The leash might not be long with Brown, but he'll at least get a chance to audition.

      Read More »from The post-hype case for Domonic Brown
    • Estrada's underlying stats last year were out of control (USAT)

      Marco Estrada is hardly a “sleeper” who’s going to be super cheap, but he’s someone to target nevertheless. First the bad news: he gave up 18 homers over 138.1 innings last year, which is hardly ideal. This was accompanied by a 10.5 HR/FB%, so there was nothing fluky about it either. But this crazy high HR rate didn’t come with a solid 3.64 ERA and strong 1.14 WHIP by accident, as Estrada also posted a 143:29 K:BB ratio. If he had qualified, his 25.4 K% would have tied for third best in all of baseball, and among those in the top-10 in that category, his accompanying 5.2 BB% would have easily been the lowest. Not only that, his 18.0 IFFB% would have also been the highest among all starters. This is a combination that shouldn’t be overlooked. When it came to striking out and walking batters faced, essentially he was the best in the league by a wide margin. And inducing infield flies should basically be treated as a K. If you want to dig deeper, Estrada’s .298 BABIP last year looks unlucky when you consider it came with a 0.76 GB/FB ratio and the aforementioned 18.0 IFFB%. Track record matters, so he should be viewed around a top-35 fantasy starter this year, but if you looked at last season’s peripherals alone, Estrada would be worthy of being treated as a top 10-15ish starting pitcher.

      [Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

      Read More »from Mostly MLB Notes: Why to target Marco Estrada, Carlos Gomez and Yu Darvish
    • Somewhere Russell Wilson is smiling … not his usual understated, affable expression, but a big (expletive)-eating, ear-to-ear grin.

      Seattle has just handed him one of the most dynamic and versatile offensive weapons in the league in trading draft picks (including this year's No. 25 overall pick) for wide receiver Percy Harvin. Over the past two seasons, Harvin has ranked No. 10 among wideouts in fantasy points per game. He's scored a receiving touchdown, a rushing touchdown and a return touchdown in each of the past three seasons. Wilson is one of the most versatile quarterbacks in the league. Harvin is one of the most versatile receivers in the league. Put those two together, along with one of the league's best running games, and we're talking about a nightmare offense for opposing defenses to game plan against.

      [Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

      Read More »from Fantasy Fallout: Percy Harvin headed to the wild, wild NFC West
    • Miggy celebrates his preseason Yahoo! rank (USAT Images)

      No matter how poorly you draft this year, it seems highly doubtful that you'll be able to screw up this position. Go ahead and try. Can't be done. Third base is uncommonly deep in 2013 — so deep, in fact, that the players we've slotted ninth and tenth in our preseason ranks, Chase Headley and Aramis Ramirez, both finished among the overall top-25 last season.

      This position is so stacked that no one in the fantasy community even seems to care that we've lost Alex Rodriguez indefinitely — possibly for the entire season. We've already buried A-Rod in the desert, with Troy Glaus, Hank Blalock and Andy Marte. Thanks for the 600-something homers and 300-something steals, Alex. Your services are no longer needed.

      [Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

      Seriously, in a standard mixed league, every owner is going to feel OK about their third baseman on draft day, whoever it is. The guy we've ranked 12th at the position, Mark Trumbo, hit 32 homers last season and drove in 95 runs. The player we've ranked 16th, Pedro Alvarez, hit 30 bombs and delivered 85 RBIs.

      Read More »from Fantasy Baseball 2013: Third Base Primer

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