Michael Bourn gets the bad news: he's on the avoid list (USAT)

The good cops had their say, the optimistic spins are already out there. Today I'm here to play bad cop, throw some red ink around. Let's get ready for the Anti-Value team, the names to avoid.

There's a sneaky industry secret when it comes to target and avoid lists; the second group generally gets the short end of the stick. It's common for many a fantasy pundit to wax poetic about sleepers and pet players, on and on and on - and then go to the short script for the other side of the ledger. Maybe there's more payoff or post-facto marketing potential when a target player makes good. Perhaps it's simply not fun to say bad things about name players; when you tell the fantasy world to avoid a star commodity, you're essentially picking a fight, asking for a never-ending argument.

[Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

Heck, I'm sure I've fallen into the upgrade/downgrade trap before, at some point. But today, we intrepidly attack the assignment at hand. For better or for worse here are players I'm avoiding in 2013, marked as such because I don't like the combination of likely return against expected price. You'll find known and intriguing names on the list, perhaps some of your favorites; issuing a Jarrod Saltalamacchia pan or Omar Infante advisory isn't particularly useful. You're welcome to agree or disagree, and I'm sure we'll have some passionate defenses in the comments.

Got the red pen handy? Let's take a stroll down Avoidance Avenue. It's nothing personal, gamers, just business. I'll collect the players with the themes they fit, so you can add your own possible overpays to the discussion.

Dustin Pedroia, $29 fantasy asset (USAT Images)

First, some history: Back in 1887, at the inaugural Tout Wars auction (held at an opium parlor, now defunct), the first player nominated was Pretzels Getzien, staff ace of the Detroit Wolverines. Pretzels was coming off a 30-11 season. He went for $13, sold to Ernie Lanigan of the nascent Sporting News. It wasn't a great buy, but tolerable. Getzien won 29 games in '87, third highest total in the league, but his ratios were merely adequate.

Fortunately for Lanigan, he also spent $24 on right-hander John Clarkson of the White Stockings, who proceeded to lead the N.L. in wins (38), Ks (237), complete games (59) and innings pitched (523.0), posting a WHIP of 1.16. The Pretzels-Clarkson combo proved unbeatable. Lanigan claimed the first Tout title, narrowly edging Hugh Fullerton in a rotisserie race that captured the nation's imagination.

[Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

Today, more than 125 years after that first season, Tout Wars is a mighty global brand. Auction weekend is a huge deal. Biggest event on the fantasy calendar. Media everywhere, squealing groupies, intense security. It's basically like a Zeppelin summer tour meets the ESPYs, times a billion.

Thus, I'm assuming you want to hear about my Tout experience. Of course you do. Here's the deal...

Arizona getaway, getaway

Alright, amigos, let's get to the prices on the mound. Here's how I rank the Top 90 arms or so for the 2013 season, 5x5.

Players at the same prices are considered even. Don't worry about the numbers in an isolated sense; what matters is how the players relate to one another. I reserve the right to tweak the list as the evening goes along. Win the debate, win the rank.

[Bracket busted? Try again with Second Chance Tourney Pick'em!]

And remember the golden rule: a player doesn't gain 15-20 percent of bonus value simply because you roster him.

I'm sure there's more to the preamble but it's not coming to mind right now. Let's get to it.

Aaron Hill's numbers should provide plenty for fantasy owners to chew on. (Getty)

They say timing is everything. That might be giving "timing" a little bit too much credit. But at least in the case of fantasy baseball drafts, it's spot on. When 2013 comes to an end, you can count on this page to be top-heavy with players that not only had successful fantasy campaigns, but were also afterthoughts on draft day. With that in mind, here's an All-Value team for 2013 - again, it's all about the timing (ADP).

First Base - Chris Davis, Baltimore (Yahoo! ADP 160, Y! '12 rank 89): Players that can hit 30 home runs don't grow on trees, especially those that can also do it with a batting average above .250. Without question, Davis had some difficulty with the batting average aspect of things at times in Texas, but one shouldn't cement their opinions about a player when he is in his early 20s. Davis hit well above .300 during his minor league career and is sitting on a .258 mark (hardly a fantasy deal breaker) through 436 career MLB games, which includes his two-year slump in Texas. Sure, he strikes out a lot, but that certainly doesn't make him unique on fantasy cheat sheets. A middle-of-the-order hitter with Davis' power upside belongs in the same neighborhood (No. 122 ADP) as that of Ike Davis, another young first baseman who projects similarly.

[Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

Shhh! (USAT Sports Images)
Sleeper is such a dangerous term, because it's a relative term. It's league-dependent. One person's sleeper is another dude's fifth round pick.

Many of you play in 8-person mixed fantasy leagues with simple rosters and no keepers. Others are involved in 18-team, N.L.-only, two-catcher, five-outfielder dynasty leagues. If we were to construct sleeper lists for each of those two formats, there would basically be zero overlap. In that first league, you won't care about Cardinals prospect Oscar Taveras until 2014. In the second, he was owned two years ago, before his 19th birthday, when he was lighting up the Midwest League.

[Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

Thus, it's always tricky to write these preseason features. Unavoidably, the sleepers we discuss are useless to many of you because they're way too deep, and useless to others because they're much too obvious.

So today we're targeting fantasy owners who occupy the middle ground in terms of roster depth, those who play in leagues that aren't necessarily at either extreme. If you're managing in, say, a competitive 12 or 14-man mixed league with deep-ish rosters, then perhaps the players below will roughly fit your definition of "sleeper." Consider taking a flier on one or two of 'em (but no more than that. These aren't foundation pieces for your fantasy squad, they're ornamentation. High failure rate among sleepers).

As Dock Ellis would have said, let's do the do...

Signs point to a long, lonely year for Halladay owners. (USAT)

In Fantasyland, a statistical ninja lurks around every corner. Each year in leagues of all shapes and sizes, well-knowns and relative unknowns reach unexpected heights carrying heady investors to the top of the mountain. As fantasy "experts" it's our job to discover, dissect and disseminate recommendations about potential breakouts to the masses. Sometimes our prognostications are eerily accurate. Other instances, we write a few glowing words on a speedy, underachieving infielder that ends up hoofing it in the minors for a majority of the season. You will never be owned again, Dee Gordon.

Hey, 'dems da breaks in a wildly unpredictable business. Win some. Lose most.

[Bracket busted? Try again with Second Chance Tourney Pick'em!]

But undeterred by last year's gross misfires, it's time again to put our necks on the chopping block in an attempt to predict this year's unanticipated giants. TEAM HUEVOS would accept nothing less.

It's time to nut up or shut up. With the season opener just days away, here are a dozen insane-in-the-membrane prognostications for the upcoming fantasy season:

Another Shockers Special or two could be around the corner. (USAT)

This year’s wild, wacky, zany and utterly mad NCAA tournament has not only lived up to the hype, it’s exceeded almost every expectation imaginable.

It’s delivered all the necessary ingredients of a ratings blockbuster – upsets, buzzer beaters, incredible comebacks, exhilerating individual performances, undeserving top seeds falling by the wayside, flying Angry Birds issued by the most polarizing figure in the game, Marshall Henderson and even the meteoric rise of RamBoy. Most unbelievably, though, is a tiny school established six years after its star player, Sherwood Brown, was born, has captivated the nation with re-DUNK-ulous jams, frenetic defense and the head coach’s pinup wife.

What a game. What a year. What a tournament.

[Bracket busted? Try again with Second Chance Tourney Pick'em!]

My favorite facts from the opening rounds:

• The average true seed in the East is 9.0 (3, 5, 12, 16), Midwest 15.25 (1, 6, 11, 43), South 16.0 (2, 10, 13, 59) and West 28.25 (8, 21, 35, 49).

• Among this year’s batch of Sweet Sixteen coaches, those in the Midwest have 23 Final Four appearances, East five, South five and West two.

• This is the fourth time in tournament history four Big Ten teams have reached the Sweet Sixteen. The Big East holds the record for most single season appearances with five back in 2009.

• At least one double-digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen in 27 of the past 29 Dances.

• Out of roughly 3.3 million Tourney Pick 'Em entries only 233 correctly prognosticated 14 of 16 Sweet Sixteen teams, two netted 15 of 16, zero nailed all 16. Interestingly, both 15-game winners have Kansas taking the title.

Unfortunately, the unpredictable craziness quickly eliminated millions from office pool bragging rights. Many brackets, inlucing the Noise’s, has taken on the appearance of a slasher movie victim. Red strikes from region-to-region have left entries irreperably bloodied, damage that’s led hoop heads to discard their sheets in various ways – tearing, rolling, smoking, goat-feeding. Chances are the person leading the pool pack is an extremely lucky basketball newbie with a penchant for orinthology. After all, four Sweet Sixteen teams are represented by feathery mascots.

But here’s the good news: Life is full of second chances, brackets included. To ensure a better performance, here’s my guide to hardwood redemption in your Second Chance Tourney Pick 'Em game:

Welcome to the club, Toddzilla (USAT)The first thing to know about this exercise is that it's mostly out of context. I'm in a bunch of leagues every year (too many, really, but it's a labor of love) and they come from all angles. Mixed leagues. Mono leagues. Keeper leagues (well, one). Redraft leagues. Drafts and auctions, with the player-penetration level constantly changing.

At this time of year I like to look back (though I'm not done drafting) and see what players I've landed more than once. Repeated ownership generally means I like a player, at least more than my opponents do - but it's obviously a lot more complicated than that. And sometimes I find myself missing on players I actually do like a lot because of circumstances I can't really control (I only have one Norichika Aoki share to this point; two months ago, I thought he'd be on nearly all of my teams).

WIthout further preamble, here's a look at some of my common threads for 2013. Take it for what it's worth. It's all about value collecting and balancing upside and floor. When I tell you I have a handful of Paul Maholm shares this year, it doesn't mean I think he's better than Cliff Lee. I'll try not to be repetitive with it, but I could write "hey, I liked the price" on every name here.

Let's do the do.

Todd Frazier: I've never tried to deny my affection for position flexibility, and Frazier no longer has to look over his shoulder at Scott Rolen. The park also could be a nice boost for Frazier, something he didn't take advantage of last year (.871 road OPS, .786 at home). An Age-27 season is also something nice to invest in.