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Five predictions for the 2016 CFL season

Andrew Bucholtz
Five predictions for the 2016 CFL season

The CFL season starts Thursday night with the Toronto Argonauts hosting the Hamilton Tiger-Cats at 7:30 p.m. Eastern (TSN/ESPNEWS), and we've looked at the West Division, the East Division, and league-wide storylines. But what about some bold predictions for how things will shake out? Those are always fun! Here are five specific things I expect to happen this year.

1. The Saskatchewan Roughriders won't finish first. Despite a 3-15 2015 campaign, there's been plenty of hype in Regina this offseason following the team bringing in Chris Jones as head coach, general manager, and vice-president of football operations fresh off his Grey Cup win in Edmonton, and that's led to some bold predictions. Most notably, Roughriders' radio play-by-play man Rod Pedersen predicted in April that the team will finish first in the West and that the defending champion Eskimos will be last. Worst-to-first turnarounds are possible in the CFL, as we saw with Winnipeg in 2011 and Ottawa last year, but they're not all that common. There are some things to like in Regina, particularly if quarterback Darian Durant can stay healthy (a big question mark), but there's likely to be a substantial adjustment period given the massive turnover of the coaching and front office staff and the player turnover as well. My pick is that they'll go 7-11, but I feel even more confident in saying that they won't be first. (If they are, I'll print out this column and eat it.)

2. The off-field focus will shift to B.C. and Montreal: For years, the Toronto Argonauts have been the key source of the CFL's stability worries, producing dismal attendances inside the Rogers Centre. Now that they have deep-pocketed ownership, a fancy new stadium, and a marketing and player acquisition budget, though, things should get better for them. The next potential problems for the league are with the Lions and the Alouettes, both of whom have faced significantly declining attendances recently and have had poor recent seasons, and both of whom don't look that great heading into this year. If those teams struggle on the field, that's likely to exacerbate their off-field issues, and that could become a league-wide storyline.

3. Henry Burris won't lead the league in passing yards: Ottawa quarterback Burris had perhaps the best season of his career at age 40 last year, put up a league-high 5,693 passing yards (more than 1,000 above second-place Bo Levi Mitchell), and deservedly won the Most Outstanding Player. However, while 2016 could still be a very good season for him, especially given all the receivers the Redblacks have, it seems unlikely he'll top the CFL yardage chart again. Burris' success keyed on an exceptional run of health (both for him and for his top targets), and his separation from the pack was also about the numerous injuries other QBs suffered. He also has a more-impressive backup potentially pressing him now in Trevor Harris, and his offensive coordinator (Jason Maas) left for Edmonton. Add that up, and it seems likely that even if Burris can again fight off age for a solid season, he may not top the yardage table.

4. More young players will shine: The CFL's often been a league that favours veterans acclimatized to the rules and new players often taking a few seasons to earn their place, but that's been changing recently, with more rookies, sophomores and other young players making quick impacts. Guys like Eric Rogers, Derel Walker, John Ojo and others all shone despite limited CFL experience last year, and that trend of favouring youth should continue this year. 43 per cent of the divisional all-stars in 2010 were 30 or above; I expect that number will be lower in 2016.

5. The TV ratings will rise. Declining TV ratings have been a CFL issue for the last couple of years, falling to an average of 590,000 last season. There are plenty of potential reasons for that, including the Roughriders' dismal season, the numerous quarterback injuries, and the amount of flags that slowed games down, but there are reasons to believe things will be better this year. The Argonauts' move and marketing should help bring back some CFL interest in that massive market, while the Riders' offseason should spur tons of interest in them at least at first, and it seems likely they'll be at least somewhat better this year. There have been some officiating changes that should help improve the flow of games, and it seems likely we may see healthier QBs and better quarterback play as well. The ratings may not jump all the way back to where they used to be, but the bet here is that they'll be over 600,000 on average.

Stay tuned to 55-Yard Line for CFL coverage all year long!