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    Scott Pianowski

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    Scott Pianowski is a fake-sport maven and a really nice guy.

    • Tip Drill: Mythbusting with Jose Bautista

      Skydome Slugger (USAT)

      You might like Jose Bautista for his home-run bat, his attack mentality at the plate, or his cool sunglasses.

      Me, I dig the guy because he's a one-man wrecking crew when it comes to Fantasy Myth Busting. Heck, the first three bullet points in this article will come straight from the Joey Bats file.

      If you've played fantasy baseball for even a modest amount of time, you've surely come across scores of rules and tips. Some are wise and useful, while others fall under the fortune-cookie logic umbrella. And we'll never stop searching for the wisdom to tell the difference.

      Settle in, settler, and let's offer up some well-regarded fantasy concepts that need to be re-examined, if not thrown into the shredder once and for all.

      Any player likely to regress into the new season is a poor draft pick

      To be fair, I've never heard anyone express this point in such a literal and binary way, but we can read between the lines. The Regression Police are everywhere. There are many handy ways to determine why a breakout or career year is unlikely to repeat, and no one wants to be the sucker the following year.

      But regression is not a destination on its own. Regression is supposed to be a conversation starter, not a conversation ender. Even if we're confident in a regression call, we need two follow-up questions: Regression to what level? And how is the market pricing this regression candidate?

      Read More »from Tip Drill: Mythbusting with Jose Bautista
    • Super Soph (USAT)Today's collection of February nuggets is brought to you by the Letter H. Settle in, settlers.

      Mike Trout and Bryce Harper might wind up being linked for their entire careers; at least we all should be hoping for that. A Magic-Bird type of run, shaped for the diamond, would be a blast to watch.

      [Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

      With that general theme in mind, let's take a second and note the physical similarity to the players entering their post-ROY seasons. We've already had a talk about Trout's bulked-up physique in The Arcade (Andy Behrens blogged about it here, and I touched on it briefly here); now we'll check in with Harper.

      The Washington wonderland reported to spring training more than ready for his close up, checking in at 230 pounds. That's nearly a 20-pound gain from the weight Harper played at last year. Here's more on Harper's gym work, courtesy of James Wagner and the Washington Post:

      Harper built his body as big and strong as he could during the winter, an offseason activity he has made a mission since high school. He loses weight quickly; playing baseball nearly everyday for the next eight months, especially the hell-bent way Harper does, can do that to a body. By the end of spring training, Harper figures he will lose 10 pounds.

      Since mid-November, when he started lifting again, Harper set his alarm for 4:50 a.m. four times a week, was up by 5 and was at Soder’s training facility in Las Vegas by 5:30 to join a group of minor league and major league players. The intense, non-stop workouts last between 90 minutes and two hours, a little longer on leg days. His older brother, Bryan, 23, a Nationals minor league pitcher, accompanied him.

      “It gives me a good time to relax and hang out and clear my mind,” Harper said. “Lifting and stuff really helps me clear my mind. I love it.”

      The Nationals wanted to move Harper out of center field as soon as possible, to prevent the mental and physical wear and tear on his muscular body. That was part of the reason for the late-November trade for Denard Span, the type of leadoff hitter and center fielder the Nationals have long coveted. But to Harper it didn’t matter where he was going to play, he was going to show up to camp at 230 pounds even if he was the everyday center fielder.

      Okay, we're not talking about the biggest story of the season here – it's been a slow news week. But there are two positive takeaways to consider in this piece: I like the idea of Harper being on a corner outfield spot (in theory, that means less chances for mayhem), and I also like seeing that he plans to lose about 10 pounds from baseball activities over the next month or so. Don't lose any of that flexibility, killer.

      Read More »from Seventh-Inning Stretch: Bryce Harper’s weigh-in; Corey Hart whistles optimistic tune
    • Shuffle Up: The Unrankable Alex Ovechkin

      Employee No. 8 (USAT)

      The new assignment on the Shuffle Up clipboard is the forwards, the men who drive so much of the fantasy equation. We're looking at the basic Yahoo! scoring categories here (goals, assists, power-play points, shots on goal, plus-minus, penalty minutes) and we're trying to project how they'll play out from this point forward. Position flexibility and scarcity also counts a small amount; in theory, it's a tie-breaker between similar commodities.

      [Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

      What's happened to this point is merely an audition; this list is not intended to merely stand as a list of stat leaders. In every Shuffle Up, some will find the list too reactive while others will feel it's not reactive enough. Everyone has a different perspective, and I welcome you to share your ice angles in the comments.

      My own commentary will follow later in the day, and I reserve the right to tweak this list as the day goes along. Also please note that anyone currently carrying an IR tag is ineligible for the list; sorry about that, Franzen Youth.

      To the board:

      Read More »from Shuffle Up: The Unrankable Alex Ovechkin
    • Jose Valverde isn't walking through that door, thankfully (USAT)

      Pitchers and catchers have finally reported to their respective Florida and Arizona camps, and the baseball wire is finally springing with some news of note. It's time for a lap around the diamond.

      The Tigers have an obvious vacancy at their closer position but manager Jim Leyland isn't in any hurry to settle things. In fact, it's possible the Tigers might break camp without naming their bullpen chairman.

      Rookie Bruce Rondon has the highest theoretical upside on the roster, but we're still talking about a 22-year-old who's never thrown a pitch in the major leagues.

      [Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

      Let's pick up the story from Steve Kornacki of Fox Sports Detroit:

      Leyland was asked if the closer spot was 22-year-old rookie Bruce Rondon’s job to lose.

      “No, it’s not like that,” Leyland said. “I’m going to look at all my options, and hopefully I’ll make a decision.

      "But I doubt anyone will be anointed the closer out of spring training. It might happen, but I doubt it. It’s a front-burner thing that is on the back-burner.”

      It’s a big decision, but Leyland doesn’t have to make it until the Tigers take the lead into the bottom of the ninth inning of a game in the opening series at Minnesota.

      “I’m not going to put that kind of pressure on the kid,” Leyland said. “I’m not going to set it now.”

      Leyland rattled off the names of Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke, Al Alburquerque and Brayan Villarreal as possibilities beyond Rondon.

      Eventually, the Tigers figure to have just one man in the ninth inning chair, even if a trade is required. While managers generally don't mind having a closer-by-committee for a limited amount of time, it isn't a strategy most modern skippers want to stick with. Putting someone at the top of the chart makes managing easier, and helps deflect criticism. For better or for worse, it's the way the game is played - we're better off accepting it and reacting to it.

      Read More »from Seventh-Inning Stretch: Exploring the Tigers bullpen; is Bryce Harper a first-round pick?
    • Tip Drill: The Buster Posey Problem

      In or out on Buster Posey? (USAT)

      The catcher position is the hard knock life area for baseball. The poor backstops lumber around with heavy equipment, while kamikaze baserunners treat them like a crash test dummies. Catchers spend six months in an uncomfortable crouch, blocking pitches in the dirt and waiting for the next foul tip to ding them up. Let's offer them some tea and sympathy.

      But let's not take these poor guys in the first round of any fantasy draft.

      [Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

      Buster Posey is the latest and greatest catcher to win the public's fantasy fancy. He was clearly the National League's best player last year, winning an MVP and batting title (and eventually, a championship ring), and fake-baseball players are paying for that haul in the early draft season. If you knew you could get Posey's 2012 stats replicated for 2013, he's be a recommended lottery pick in any format.

      Ah, but there's the rub. Regression is pretty much a bitch for anyone off a dynamite season, but when it comes to the high-attrition catchers, I want no part of chasing last year's stats (even in two-catcher leagues). There's too much risk here.

      Read More »from Tip Drill: The Buster Posey Problem
    • Pressing Questions: The Philadelphia Phillies

      Opposites Attract (MC Skat Cat)

      Three aces can take you a long way, be it on the poker table or the baseball diamond. But a stacked starting rotation might not be enough to save the 2013 Philadelphia Phillies. They're almost down to the felt.

      The Phillies have the most aging collection of name-brand talent south of Yankee Stadium. The four infield starters are 33, 34, 34 and 36 years old. Mound stalwarts Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay are in their mid-30s. You almost expect Greg Luzinski and Mike Schmidt to emerge from the dugout, bats in hand.

      There are other problems to deal with. Carlos Ruiz, last year's surprise star behind the plate, is grounded for 25 games per league suspension. There's plenty of youth in the outfield, but you won't find a franchise player in the mix. The minor league system has been mediocre for several years.

      [Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

      Alas, there's no mucking a hand in the National League. The Phillies will go forward with a full schedule and probably be in the middle of the pack, similar to last year's 81-81 record; certainly, no one is expecting them to challenge the Nationals and Braves in the NL East. And while fantasy owners are used to paying top dollar for a bunch of Phillies every year, there's not as much to spring for this time around.

      A creative general manager might look at this roster and conclude "we've got to get younger." Ruben Amaro Jr. took the plan too literally: he signed two free agents with the surname Young. It's been that type of winter in Philadelphia. Let's sort through the mess and try to find some interesting fantasy angles.

      Read More »from Pressing Questions: The Philadelphia Phillies
    • Shuffle Up: Justin Schultz, the real deal

      Hey 19, rated rookie (USAT)

      Today's Shuffle Up comes to you from the blue line; it's defensemen only, amigos. Goalies dropped last week, forwards arrive next week. If you have an issue with this schedule, please consult with Carl Racki in customer service.

      The ranking below is the way I'd attack the position if facing a new draft right this second. What's already happened is an audition, not a mandate. Consider basic Yahoo! league scoring parameters (goals, assists, power-play points, PIMs, shots on goal) as you navigate along.

      Your respectful disagreement is welcome, as always. Win the debate, win the rank. I'll add some commentary later in the day. Game on.

      Read More »from Shuffle Up: Justin Schultz, the real deal
    • Spin Doctors: Who’s No. 1, Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera?

      Worth the price of admission (USAT)

      Now that the Super Bowl result is in the books (no one left to beat, Joe Flacco), the roto public turns an eye to pitchers, catchers, and the rest of the fantasy baseball carnival. The top of the ranking board is always a hot-button topic, and today, in this forum, Brandon Funston and Scott Pianowski have a difference of opinion on how they'd kick off a draft. Share your thoughts (and Ryan Braun sympathizing) in the comments.

      B-Fun leads off: Last season, Miguel Cabrera became the first player in 45 years to win a Triple Crown. That's a first place finish in the AL in three of the five categories in our roto racket. But despite his rare trifecta, and the fact that Mike Trout spotted Miggy a one month head start on '12 season, Trout still cruised to the top spot in the Yahoo! fantasy game - with a mere 40 games of previous experience.

      So there's no question as to whether Trout can be the No. 1 fantasy player. He's been there, done that (in his age 20/21 season, mind you). And after falling a SB shy in '12, this season he'll get an extra 20-some games to shoot for the vaunted 30/50 club, a membership that counts just two (Barry Bonds and Eric Davis) in the history of the game. And that power/speed combo is the straw that stirs our roto drink. Just look at the last three No. 1 finishers: Trout in '12 (30/49); Matt Kemp in '11 (39/40); Carlos Gonzalez in '10 (34/26).

      Trout naysayers will point to his inflated BABIP, third-highest in MLB. And I can subscribe to the theory that his average (.326) could regress this season. But how much for a guy that hit .342 in 1,117 minor league at bats and above .300 in each half of last season? The guy hits the ball on the screws and is lightning on the base paths. If you start projecting anything below .290, I'm tuning you out.

      Read More »from Spin Doctors: Who’s No. 1, Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera?
    • Pressing Questions: The Boston Red Sox

      Give Wally something to cheer about (Getty Images)

      The 2011 Red Sox crash landed in the final frames; chicken and beer seldom break anyone's fall. The 2012 Olde Town Team was a beat-the-traffic special, dead in the water before high tide.

      Last year's messy results speak for themselves. Boston finished dead last in the AL East (69-93), its first basement tape since 1992. The offense didn't score (734 runs, worst showing in two decades), the pitchers couldn't get people out (4.72 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 190 homers allowed), and too many players couldn't stay healthy. If you came to Fenway Park in the summer, you were there for the park, the atmosphere or the opponent. (I attended one game and spent three innings in the concession area talking Fantasy Football with my buddy Cuozzo. So it goes. We love ya, Cooz.)

      While Pennant Fever did not grip The Hub last year, there was a critical "adieu" moment. Boston's unmistakable 2012 highlight came in the transaction log, not on the field. The Red Sox shipped Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford - and their bloated contracts - to the Dodgers in late August, getting a collection of fringe players back. It's the largest salary dump in sports history, Boston's version of turning off the video game and starting over.

      The Red Sox quickly put the liquidation savings into play, landing a handful of notable free agents over the winter (Shane Victorino, Ryan Dempster, Stephen Drew, and eventually Mike Napoli). Boston also traded for a new closer (Joel Hanrahan), and welcomed in a new manager (John Farrell; we'll miss the Bobby Valentine punchlines). Lesser signees included reliever Koji Uehara, hacking OF/DH Jonny Gomes and support catcher David Ross.

      Yes, the 2013 roster will be different, and that's a welcome thing. But will the team be any good? Keep in mind most of the new acquisitions are coming off down years, and/or have injury baggage tied to them. Do we want to get fantasy-invested in these chaps? Chowder Up and let's mind our Ps and Qs . . .

      Read More »from Pressing Questions: The Boston Red Sox
    • Pressing Questions: The Detroit Tigers

      Detroit Knosh City (USAT)

      The 2012 Tigers were supposed to be a good-hit, bad-field bunch that contended for the AL Pennant. The last target came to pass, even if the path getting there didn't take the expected shape.

      In spite of Miguel Cabrera's Triple Crown season (and controversial MVP), Detroit finished a mere 11th in the majors in runs (726), dropping 61 from the previous year. And don't blame it on the home yard, as Comerica Park played slightly favorable for offense in 2012. The full-season loss of Victor Martinez obviously didn't help, though the addition of Prince Fielder countered that nicely.

      The Motown defense turned out to be problematic in spots, passable in others: while Fielder was mediocre at first and Cabrera was predictably messy at third, the Tigers were sharp up the middle (center fielder Austin Jackson, late arrival Omar Infante and even shortstop Jhonny Peralta graded well in most advanced defensive metrics). You'll find some team defensive formulas that gave the Tigers an acceptable grade, while some other measures went heavy with the red ink.

      The pitching staff held its end of the bargain, mostly due to the name brands who took the ball every fifth day. Detroit finished third in AL ERA (3.75), sparked by the second-best rotation ERA (3.76). The tenth-worst bullpen (3.79) did nasty things to Jim Leyland's blood pressure, to the point that the Tigers shockingly made a closer change in the midst of the ALCS. Thanks for the memories and the ridiculous over-celebrations, Jose Valverde.

      [Related: No reason for Detroit Tigers to regress]

      While Detroit isn't the primary AL or World Series favorite as we wait for the snow to melt, the Tigers are on just about anyone's short lists of contenders. The roster has a score of proven and projectable veterans, which is what owner Mike Illitch deserves for the $150 million or so he'll sign for in 2013. Illitch turns 84 in the middle of the summer and desperately wants to get a World Series trophy in his lifetime, which means Detroit will probably act aggressively when the trading season opens. The goal is to win now.

      Make the jump and we'll fire off Q and A from The D. And we'll start things off in the unsettled ninth inning . . .

      Read More »from Pressing Questions: The Detroit Tigers

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